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Last updated: October 5, 2017


Russian Federal Budget Deficit / Surplus Projections Datasheet

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

The World Bank

European Commission

OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries)

OECD

Ministry of Finance

Central Bank of Russia

Fitch Ratings

Standard & Poor’s

Moody’s

Analytical Credit Rating Agency (ACRA)

Dagong Rating Agency (China)

Reuters Polls (consensus forecasts)

Centre for Development of Higher School of Economics

Institute of National Economy Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences

Raiffeisen Bank

Danske Bank

BNP Paribas

Deka Group

Coface

Allianz Group

Euler Hermes (Part of Allianz)

Berenberg Bank

Nordea

UniCredit Group

VEB (VneshEconomBank)

VTB Capital

Uralsib

Opinions of Individuals

Projections Archive




Russian Federal Budget Deficit / Surplus Projections Datasheet



Important note: Please, note that the provided figures represent publicly available information and do not take into consideration data of reports with limited distribution and other closed or limited sources. The data on budget deficit (-) and surplus (+) are presented in % to GDP.

Institution / CompanyUpdated2017201820192020
International Organisations
IMF (General Government Balance)11.05.2017-2.6-1.9--
The World Bank (General Government Balance)23.05.2017-1.8-0.50.3
European Commission (General Government Balance)11.05.2017-3.0-2.4
OPEC (government fiscal balance)12.09.2017-2.2-1.4
OECD (general government financial balance, consolidated budget)07.06.2017-3.3-2.7
State Authorities
Ministry of Economic Development (baseline scenario)06.04.2017-2.0-1.7-1.3-0.8
Ministry of Finance of Russia (federal budget balance)08.09.2017-2.0-1.4-(0.8÷0.9)-(0.8÷0.9)
Ministry of Finance of Russia (budgetary system balance)11.07.2017-2.2-1.9-1.1-1.0
Rating Agencies
Moody’s (general government balance)22.05.2017--1.8
Fitch24.07.2017-2.8-2.3-1.7
S&P (general government balance)17.03.2017-3.2-2.9-2.4-2.4
Analytical Credit Rating Agency (ACRA)28.03.2017-2.3-1.8-0.9-0.9
Results of Expert Polls
Reuters Polls (federal budget execution)04.02.2017-2.2-1.5-0.8
Russian Economic Research Institutions
Centre for Development of Higher School of Economics (baseline scenario)03.10.2016-2.5-2.2-1.7-1.3
Institute of National Economy Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences (inertial scenario, consolidated budget)17.05.2017-2.7-2.0-1.2-
International Banks, Investment Banks and Corporate Players
Raiffeisen Bank (general budget balance)02.10.2017-2.5-2.0-1.-
Danske Bank31.03.2017-3.0-2.7
BNP Paribas (general government balance)10.07.2017-2.7-2.1
Deka Group13.09.2017-2.2-1.4
Allianz Group13.01.2017-2.7-2.5
Euler Hermes (part of Allianz)30.03.2017-3.0-2.5--
Berenberg Bank29.09.2017-2.5-2.0-2.0
Nordea (public sector balance)06.09.2016-2.3-1.6-1.0
UniCredit Group (general government balance)09.01.2017-3.6-3.1
Coface05.07.2017-2.6-
Russian Banks, Investment Banks and Corporate Players
VneshEconomBank (VEB, baseline scenario, federal budget balance)22.09.2017-2.0-0.90.00.2
VTB Capital29.09.2016-3.2-2.6
Uralsib13.09.2016-(1.6÷1.8)



International Monetary Fund (IMF)



On May 11, 2017 IMF published the Regional Economic Outlook May 2017 (Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe. A Broadening Recovery).[102] The document features the Russian general government balance projections for 2017-2018 at -2.6% of GDP and -1.9% of GDP, correspondingly.

On October 3, 2016 IMF released the World Economic Outlook[103] with the Russian General Government Structural Balance projections for 2016-2020 at -3.3% in 2016, -1.9% in 2017, -0.8% in 2018, 0.0% in 2019 and +0.3% in 2020.[104]



The World Bank



On May 23, 2017 the World Bank released Russia Economic Report #37 (“From Recession to Recovery”) featuring the updated general government balance projections for 2017-2019.[105] Referring to the document, the Russian general government balance is expected at -1.8% of GDP in 2017, -0.5% of GDP in 2018 and +0.3% of GDP in 2019.

On November 9, 2016 Russia Economic Report #36 featuring updated projections for the country was published by the World Bank.[106] According to the revised projections, the Russian general government balance is expected to decrease gradually in the coming years being projected at -4.2% to GDP in 2016, -2.5% to GDP in 2017 and -0.5% to GDP in 2018. The corresponding average annual crude oil price is assumed to be at USD 43.3 per barrel in 2016, USD 55.2 per barrel in 2017 and USD 59.9 per barrel in 2018.



European Commission



On May 11, 2017 European Commission published Spring 2017 Economic Forecast with the updated Russian macroeconomic projections for 2017-2018.[107] According to the forecast, the Russian general government balance is expected to be at -3.0% of GDP in 2017 and -2.4% of GDP in 2018.

On February 13, 2017 the European Commission released the Winter Economic Forecast featuring the economy developments projections for Russia for 2017-2018.[108] Referring to the document, the Russian general government deficit is estimated at 3.8% to GDP for 2016 and projected to decrease to 3.5% in 2017 and 2.9% in 2018.

On November 9, 2016 the European Commission published European Economic Forecast for Autumn 2016 with updated projections of general government balance in Russia in 2016-2018.[109] According to the paper, the Russian general government balance is expected to be negative throughout the whole period being projected at -2.3% of GDP in 2016, -2.1% of GDP in 2017 and -1.6% of GDP in 2018.



OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries)



On September 12, 2017, OPEC issued the Monthly Oil Market report for September 2017.[110] The Russian government fiscal balance projections for 2017-2018 were retained at -2.2% of GDP and -1.4% of GDP, respectively.

On August 10, 2017, OPEC released the new monthly oil market report.[111] The Russian government fiscal balance projections were retained at -2.2% of GDP for 2017 and -1.4% of GDP for 2018.

On July 12, 2017, OPEC published monthly oil market report for July 2017. The Russian government fiscal balance is projected at -2.2% of GDP for 2017 and -1.4% of GDP for 2018.[112]

On June 13, 2017 OPEC released the oil market report for June 2017 revising the Russian government fiscal balance projection for 2017 to -3.2% of GDP.[113]

On April 12, 2017 OPEC released the monthly Oil Market Report for April 2017.[114] The Russian government fiscal balance projection for the year was corrected to -2.9%.

On March 14, 2017 the new issue of OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report was released featuring the Russian government fiscal balance projection for 2017 retained at -2.6%.[115]

On February 13, 2017 OPEC released the new issue of Monthly Oil Market Report with the Russian government fiscal balance estimate for 2016 corrected from -3.7% to -3.6% of GDP and 2017 projection corrected from -2.9% to -2.6%.[116]

On January 18, 2017 OPEC published the new issue of the Monthly Oil Market Report.[117] Referring to the paper, the Russian government fiscal balance estimate for 2016 remained at -3.7% of GDP and 2017 projection stayed at -2.9%.

On December 14, 2016 OPEC released the Monthly Oil Market Report for December 2016 with the Russian government fiscal balance for 2016-2017 updated to -3.7% and -2.9% of GDP, correspondingly.[118]

On November 11, 2016 the new issue of Monthly Oil Market Report was released with the government fiscal balance projections for 2016 and 2017 remaining at -3.7% and -2.2% of GDP, correspondingly (year average).[119]

On October 12, 2016 the OPEC’s monthly oil market report was released with the revised government fiscal balance projections for 2016-2017 at -3.7% and -2.2% to GDP, correspondingly.[120]

On September 12, 2016 OPEC published Oil Market Report for September 2016 featuring Russian government fiscal balance projections (% to GDP) for 2016-2017 at -4.1% and -3.0%, correspondingly.[121]



OECD



On June 7, 2017 OECD published the Global Economic Outlook June 2016 featuring the updated projections for Russia.[122] The Russian budgetary deficit (consolidated budget) is projected at -3.3% of GDP in 2017 and -2.7% of GDP in 2018.

On November 28, 2016 OECD released the updated Economic Outlook with the revised Russian general government financial balance projections for 2016-2018.[123] The Russian budget deficit (consolidated budget) is projected to decrease gradually in the coming years from 3.5% in 2016 to 3.0% in 2017 and 2.3% in 2018.



Ministry of Finance



On September 8, 2017, Mr. Anton Siluanov, the Russian Minister of Finance, indicated the Ministry’s projections of the federal budget deficit at 2.0% of GDP for 2017, 1.4% of GDP for 2018 and 0.8-0.9% in 2019 and onwards.[124]

On July 11, 2017, the Ministry of Finance released the draft of “Key Directions of the Budgetary, Tax, Customs and Tariff Policy for 2018 and the Planning Period of 2019 and 2020”.[125] The Ministry confirmed the budgetary projections previously adopted by the Government. Specifically, the Russian federal budget deficit is expected to decrease from 2.1% of GDP in 2017 to 0.8% of GDP in 2020 (1.6% in 2018 and 0.9% in 2019). The overall budgetary system deficit (sum of the federal budget, consolidated regional budgets and budgets of the extra-budgetary funds) shall also decrease from 2.2% of GDP in 2017 to 1.0% of GDP in 2020 (1.9% in 2018 and 1.1% in 2019).

On February 27, 2017 Mr. Anton Siluanov commented to the press at Sochi Investment Forum that the Russian federal budget deficit for 2017 is expected at the level of 2.0% that is more than 1% below the official forecast provided by the law “On the Federal Budget for 2017 and the Planning Period of 2018 and 2019”.[126]

On October 12, 2016 the Ministry of Finance provided the draft of the Federal Law “On the Federal Budget for 2017 and the Planning Period of 2018 and 2019” for public discussion (anti-corruption assessment).[127] The draft envisages the following key indicators for 2017-2019:

Budgetary Projections under the Draft Law on the Federal Budget for 2017-2019 as of October 12, 2016

-201720182019
GDP, RUR billion868069229698860
Inflation rates, %4.0%4.0%4.0%
Budgetary revenues, RUR billion13436.613020913988.757085114824.9177544
Budgetary revenues, % of GDP15.48%15.16%15.00%
Budgetary outlays, RUR billion16181.264730515978.058566915964.2674729
Budgetary outlays, % of GDP18.64%17.31%16.15%
Cap of the Reserve Fund, RUR billion6076.426460.726920.2
Cap of the Reserve Fund, % of GDP7.00%7.00%7.00%
Cap of the internal debt as of the end of the year, RUR billion10351.62379811580.940617212788.3866311
Cap of the internal debt as of the end of the year, % of GDP11.93%12.55%12.94%
Cap of the external debt as of the end of the year, USD billion (EUR billion)53.6 (48.7)52.8 (48.0)53.6 (48.7)
Cap of the external debt as of the end of the year, % of GDP4.17%3.93%3.85%
RUR/USD exchange rate (used in calculations)67.568.771.1
Federal budget deficit, RUR billion2744.65170961989.30148181139.3497185
Federal budget deficit, % of GDP3.16%2.16%1.15%

Source: Ministry of Finance, calculations by Factosphere, RUR/USD exchange rates from official forecast of the Ministry of the Economy as of October 12, 2016[128].

On October 7, 2016 the following federal budget projections made by the Ministry of Finance were disclosed[129]:

Budgetary Projections of the Russian Ministry of Finance as of Beginning of October 2016

-2016201720182019
Budgetary revenues, RUR billion13 369
(12 665)*
13 49213 95514 523
Budgetary revenues, % of GDP16.1
(15.3)
15.515.115.0
Revenues from oil and gas sector, RUR billion4 7785 0635 0855 322
Revenues excluding oil and gas sector, RUR billion8 591
(7 888)
8 3428 8709 501
Budgetary outlays, RUR billion16 40416 16015 95115 962
Budgetary outlays, % of GDP19.818.617.316.1
Federal budget deficit, % of GDP3.7
(4.5)
3.02.21.2
Federal budget deficit excluding revenues from the oil and gas sector, % of GDP9.4
(10.3)
9.07.76.5
Reserve Fund as of the end of the year, RUR billion1 122000
National Wealth Fund as of the end of the year, RUR billion4 6723 9732 8652 765
Government debt as of the end of the year, RUR billion12 49013 96715 20916 603
Government debt, % of GDP15.116.116.516.8
Domestic debt, RUR billion9 06410 35211 58112 788
Foreign debt, RUR billion3 4273 6153 6283 815

Source: Ministry of Finance, Vedomosti newspaper.

*Revenues excluding the sale of 19.5% in Rosneft are presented in brackets.

On October 3, 2016 the Ministry of Finance proposed the amendments to the federal law “On Federal Budget for 2016”.[130] According to the amendments, the federal budget deficit for 2016 was expected at 3.66% to GDP (about RUR 3.03 trillion). The total budgetary outlays for the year were estimated at RUR 16.4 trillion, while the budgetary revenues were projected at 12.74 trillion, including RUR 382 billion of revenues from privatisation.

On September 5, 2016 Vedomosti newspaper released the federal budget revenues’ projections of the Russian Ministry of Finance for 2016-2019 to be a part of the baseline scenario of the Russian economy developments.[131] The baseline scenario assumes the average annual Urals crude oil price to be at USD 41 per barrel in 2016 and to stay at USD 40 per barrel in the following years.

In accordance with the projections, the share of budgetary revenues in GDP is expected to be contracting in 2016-2019 (from 15.2% in 2016 to 13.3% in 2019). The structure of revenues is also expected to change with decreasing share of oil & gas revenues (from 38.5% in 2016 to 34.7% in 2019).

Budgetary Projections of the Russian Ministry of Finance, RUR billion

Indicator2016E2017F2018F2019F
Revenues of the federal budget, total12566123131260813041
Share in GDP, %15.2%14.1%13.6%13.3%
- Revenues from oil and gas sector4836463845354526
- Share in total revenues, %38.5%37.7%36.0%34.7%
-- Severance tax2839288828362808
-- Export duties1997174916991718
- Revenues excluding oil and gas sector7730767680748514
- Share in total revenues, %61.5%62.3%64.0%65.3%
-- VAT4559489052445656
-- Excise duties670695676646
-- Corporate tax475466493528
-- Import duties543526534544
-- Other revenues1483109911271140

Source: Vedomosti newspaper, the Russian Ministry of Finance, calculations of factosphere.com.

Projections on Key Indicators of the Russian Economy Development under Baseline Scenario

Indicator2016E2017F2018F2019F
Urals crude oil price, USD per barrel41404040
RUR/USD exchange rate676564.664.1
GDP, RUR billion82768871309243798291
GDP growth rates, %-0.6%0.6%1.7%2.1%
Inflation, % year end5.8%4.9%4.4%4.1%

Source: Vedomosti newspaper, the Russian Ministry of Finance.

On July 7, 2016 Mr. Anton Siluanov commented after the government’s meeting that the budget deficit for 1H 2016 was above 4% that is substantially higher than 3.3% planned by the Ministry for the year.[132] Besides this, he commented that the Ministry expects the budget deficit at 3.2% in 2017, 2.2% in 2018 and 1.2% in 2019.

He also noticed that the federal budget revenues for 2017 will be lower as compared to 2016, while the outlays are planned at RUR 15.785 trillion.



Central Bank of Russia



On September 16, 2016 the Russian Central Bank decreased the base rate to 10.0% (10.5% previously). The Bank also released the report on the monetary policy featuring the federal budget deficit projection for 2016 at 3.6% of GDP.[133]



Fitch Ratings



On August 3, 2017, Fitch opened access to Emerging Europe Sovereign Credit Overview dated July 24, 2017, which features the Russian government balance projections for 2017-2019.[134] Fitch projects the government balance in Russia at -2.8% of GDP in 2017, -2.3% in 2018 and -1.7% in 2019.

On March 31, 2017 Fitch affirmed Russian IDRs at ‘BBB-‘ with stable outlook and provided the Russian federal government deficit projections for 2017-2018 at 2.4% and 1.4% of GDP, correspondingly.[135]

On October 14, 2016 Fitch revised the Russian IDR changing the outlook from negative to stable and affirming the IDR at BBB-.[136] In the corresponding press release the Russian general deficit projections were disclosed assuming decrease of the deficit from 4.0% to GDP in 2016 to 1.5% to GDP in 2018.

On September 20, 2016 Fitch broadcasted press-release dedicated to the Russian government's fiscal plans where the budget deficit projections for 2016-2017 were indicated at 3.9% and 2.8% to GDP, correspondingly.[137] Fitch forecasts the crude oil price to average USD 45 per barrel in 2017 and USD 55 per barrel in 2018.



Standard & Poor’s



On March 17, 2017 S&P changed the sovereign credit rating outlook for Russia from stable to positive.[138] The following general government projections have been provided (% to GDP):

Indicator20162017201820192020
Balance/GDP(4.5)(3.2)(2.9)(2.4)(2.4)
Change in debt/GDP0.11.31.12.32.4
Primary balance/GDP(3.5)(2.3)(1.9)(1.4)(1.3)
Revenue/GDP31.535.335.235.235.2
Expenditures/GDP36.038.538.137.637.6
Interest /revenues3.02.62.72.83.2
Debt/GDP12.713.514.015.717.4
Debt/Revenue40.438.339.644.549.3
Net debt/GDP4.47.610.112.013.9
Liquid assets/GDP8.45.93.83.63.5

On September 16, 2016 S&P changed the sovereign credit rating outlook for Russia to stable providing also the following budget-related projections:[139]

Indicator20152016201720182019
Balance/GDP(3.5)(4.1)(3.7)(2.9)(2.4)
Change in debt/GDP0.91.21.11.02.4
Primary balance/GDP(2.6)(3.1)(2.7)(1.9)(1.4)
Revenue/GDP33.335.035.335.235.2
Expenditures/GDP36.839.139.038.137.6
Interest /revenues2.82.82.82.92.9
Debt/GDP13.514.214.414.516.0
Debt/Revenue40.540.540.841.245.4
Net debt/GDP1.35.28.510.912.6
Liquid assets/GDP12.29.05.93.73.4



Moody’s



On May 22, 2017 Moody’s released an announcement (“Russia's credit profile reflects strong government and external finances amid a range of credit challenges”) expecting the Russian general government deficit to decrease to 1.8% of GDP by 2018.[140]

On October 27, 2016 Ms. Kristin Lindow, Senior Vice President at Moody's Investor Service, provided the Russian budget deficit projection for 2016 at 3.7-3.8% of GDP.[141] In case the state does not succeed in selling shareholding in Rosneft, the Russian oil giant, the deficit is projected to increase to 4.7% of GDP.



Analytical Credit Rating Agency (ACRA)



On March 28, 2017 ACRA provided the updated macroeconomic projections for Russia until 2021.[142] Referring to the forecast, the Russian federal budget balance is expected at -2.3% of GDP in 2017, -1.8% in 2018, -0.9% in 2019, -0.9% in 2020 and -0.7% in 2021.

On September 12, 2016 ACRA released updated macroeconomic forecast until 2020.[143] Referring to the projections, the budget deficit will be at 3.9% of GDP in 2016, 3.1% in 2017, 2.2% in 2018, 1.5% in 2019 and 0.7% in 2020.

On September 6, 2016 Ms. Yekaterina Trofimova, the head of ACRA, in her interview to Russia24 TV channel commented that ACRA expects federal budget deficit at 3.8% of GDP in 2016.[144]



Dagong Rating Agency (China)



On September 22, 2016 Dagong confirmed Russia’s local and foreign currency sovereign credit ratings at A with stable outlook.[145] The press-release features the Russian budgetary deficit projection for 2016 at 3.7% to GDP.



Reuters Polls (consensus forecasts)



On October 4, 2017, Reuters disclosed the results of the new poll on the Russian economy developments featuring projections of the major macroeconomic indicators.[146]

Results of the Reuters poll on the budget execution, % to GDP (October 2017)

-AverageMedianMinMax
2017 y/y-1.8-2.2-3.01.3
2018 y/y-1.3-1.5-2.90.8
2019 y/y-0.7-0.8-2.40.6

On December 5, 2016 the Ministry of Economic Development of Russian released weekly economic monitoring report[147] featuring Reuters’ consensus projections of the federal budget execution for 2016-2017 at -3.5% and -2.6% to GDP, correspondingly (-3.4% and -2.3% under previous consensus projections).



Centre for Development of Higher School of Economics



On October 3, 2016 the Centre revised its macroeconomic projections for 2016-2020[148] with the Russian federal budget balance expected at -3.0% in 2016, -2.5% in 2017, -2.2% in 2018, -1.7% in 2019 and -1.3% in 2020.



Institute of National Economy Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences



On May 17, 2017 the Institute issued the updated quarterly forecast of the Russian economic indicators for 2017-2019 (#38).[149] Referring to the inertial scenario of the forecast, the Russian consolidated budget deficit is projected at 2.7% in 2017, 2.0% in 2018 and 1.2% in 2019 under the gradually increasing crude oil price.

Institute of National Economy Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences (May 2017)

IndicatorUnit2016201720182019
Revenues of consolidated budgetRUR trillion23.424.826.728.5
Share of revenues from O&G sector%23.327.027.928.3
Share of revenues excl. O&G sector%76.773.072.171.7
Revenues of consolidated budget, % to GDP%27.228.128.428.4
Revenues from O&G sector that can be directed for federal budget outlays financing, % to GDP*%5.68.17.27.3
Outlays of consolidated budgetRUR trillion26.427.228.529.7
Outlays of consolidated budget, % to GDP%30.630.830.329.6
Deficit(-) / Surplus (+) of consolidated budget, % to GDP%-3.5-2.7-2.0-1.2
Net state borrowings (securities), % to GDP%0.61.21.11.0
Net external borrowings, % to GDP%0.0-0.2-0.2-0.1
Sums accumulated in the sovereign funds as of the year endRUR billion5 3313 6942 5742 468
Avg. annual Brent crude oil priceUSD per barrel44535557

* I.e. excluding revenues directed to the National Wealth Fund and the Reserve Fund, but including sums directed from the Reserve Fund for the budgetary deficit coverage (also referred as ‘oil and gas transfer’, ‘neftegazovy transfert’).

Source: Quarterly macroeconomic forecast of Institute of National Economy Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

On January 30, 2017 the institute released the quarterly forecast for 2017-2019 (forecast date: January 18, 2017).[150] Under the updated inertial scenario the Russian budgetary projections looked as follows:

Institute of National Economy Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences (January 2017)

IndicatorUnit2016E201720182019
Revenues of consolidated budgetRUR trillion22.124.626.227.3
Share of revenues from O&G sector%23.527.227.126.3
Share of revenues excl. O&G sector%76.572.872.973.7
Revenues of consolidated budget, % to GDP%26.727.928.328.1
Revenues from O&G sector that can be directed for federal budget outlays financing, % to GDP*%7.38.17.06.8
Outlays of consolidated budgetRUR trillion26.327.027.428.2
Outlays of consolidated budget, % to GDP%31.930.629.629.1
Deficit(-) / Surplus (+) of consolidated budget, % to GDP%-4.4-2.7-1.4-1.0
Net state borrowings (securities), % to GDP%0.91.21.11.1
Net external borrowings, % to GDP%0.1-0.2-0.2-0.1
Sums accumulated in the sovereign funds as of the year endRUR billion5 6543 9932 8352 707

* I.e. excluding revenues directed to the National Wealth Fund and the Reserve Fund, but including sums directed from the Reserve Fund for the budgetary deficit coverage (also referred as ‘oil and gas transfer’, ‘neftegazovy transfert’).

Source: Quarterly macroeconomic forecast of Institute of National Economy Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

On October 23, 2016 the Institute presented updated quarterly macroeconomic forecast for 2016-2019.[151]. In the dedicated report the institute offered the following budgetary projections on Russia:

Institute of National Economy Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences (October 2016)

IndicatorUnit2016201720182019
Revenues of consolidated budgetRUR billion21 85824 18125 93927 344
Share of revenues from O&G sector%24.527.427.126.0
Share of revenues excl. O&G sector%75.572.672.974.0
Revenues of consolidated budget, % to GDP%25.926.325.925.0
Revenues from O&G sector that can be directed for federal budget outlays financing, % to GDP*%8.47.16.56.0
Outlays of consolidated budgetRUR billion26 07226 15627 06328 061
Outlays of consolidated budget, % to GDP%30.928.527.025.7
Deficit(-) / Surplus (+) of consolidated budget, % to GDP%-4.3-2.1-1.1-0.7
Net state borrowings (securities), % to GDP%0.80.80.80.7
Net external borrowings, % to GDP%0.10.10.10.1
Sums accumulated in the sovereign funds as of the year endRUR billion6 1675 7355 7375 742

* I.e. excluding revenues directed to the National Wealth Fund and the Reserve Fund, but including sums directed from the Reserve Fund for the budgetary deficit coverage (also referred as ‘oil and gas transfer’, ‘neftegazovy transfert’).

Source: Quarterly macroeconomic forecast of Institute of National Economy Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences.



Raiffeisen Bank



On October 2, 2017, Raiffeisen Bank released the Central & Eastern European Strategy for 4Q 2017 featuring the updated macroeconomic projections for Russia. According to the document, the bank expects the Russian general budget balance at -2.5% of GDP in 2017, -2.0% of GDP in 2018 and -1.0% of GDP in 2019.[152]

On July 11, 2017, RBI published the annual Russia country report with the Russian general budget balance projections for 2017-2018 confirmed at -2.5% and -2.0% of GDP, correspondingly.[153]

On June 28, 2017, RBI released the Central & Eastern European Strategy for 3Q 2017 featuring the bank’s Russian general budget balance projections for 2017-2018 revised to -2.5% and -2.0% of GDP, respectively.[154]

On June 1, 2017 Raiffeisen released CEE Banking Sector report with the Russian general budget balance projections for 2017-2018 retained at -2.6% and -2.4% of GDP, respectively.[155]

On March 27, 2017 Raiffeisen Bank published the Central & Eastern European Strategy for 2Q 2017 featuring the updated Russian general budget balance projections for 2017-2018.[156] Referring to the document, the bank’s projections were indicated at -2.6% of GDP in 2017 and -2.4% of GDP for 2018.

On December 21, 2016 Raiffeisen Bank released the Central & Eastern European Strategy for 1Q 2017 featuring the updated macroeconomic projections for Russia.[157] According to the document, the bank expects the Russian general budget balance at -4.4% to GDP in 2016, -3.3% in 2017 and -2.4% in 2018.

On September 28, 2016 Raiffeisen Bank International published Central & Eastern European Strategy for 4Q 2016 featuring Russian general budget balance projections for 2016-2018 at -4.4%, -3.3% and -2.4% to GDP, correspondingly.[158]



Danske Bank



On March 31, 2017 Danske Bank published new Emerging Markets Briefer featuring the updated Russian macroeconomic projections.[159] Referring to the document, the Russian budget balance is still expected to be at -3.0% of GDP in 2017 and -2.7% in 2018.

On December 19, 2016 Danske Bank released emerging Markets Briefer (“A murky outlook for emerging markets in 2017”).[160] The briefer features the Russian budget balance projections for 2016-2018 at -3.4%, -3.0% and -2.7% to GDP, correspondingly.

On October 20, 2016 Danske Bank provided flash comment “Russian output and demand: consumer’s dawn”, where the Russian budget balance projections for 2016 and 2017 were retained at -3.0% and -3.2%, correspondingly.[161]

On September 30, 2016 Danske Bank released Emerging Markets Briefer for September 2016 featuring Russian budget balance projections for 2016-2017 at -3.0% and -3.2% to GDP, correspondingly.[162]



BNP Paribas



On July 10, 2017, BNP Paribas published the updated macroeconomic review on Russia (Russia. Macroeconomic Consolidation) with the Russian general government balance projections for 2017-2018 retained at -2.7% and -2.1% of GDP, respectively.[163]

On April 27, 2017 BNP Paribas released macroeconomic outlook for Russia (The Recovery Is Taking Shape) with the Russian general government balance projections for 2017-2018 indicated at -2.7% and -2.1% of GDP, respectively.[164]

On October 11, 2016 BNP Paribas published the macroeconomic update on the Russian economy called “Russie: Difficile reprise”[165], where the Russian federal budget deficit projections for 2016-2017 were stated at 3.4% and 2.2% to GDP, correspondingly.



Deka Group



On September 13, 2017, Deka released new issue of Emerging Markets Trends bulletin revising the Russian budgetary balance projections for 2017-2018 to -2.2% and -1.4% of GDP, respectively.[166]

On August 7, 2017, Deka published Emerging Markets Trends August 2017 bulletin with the Russian budgetary balance projections for 2017-2018 revised to -2.1% and -1.3% of GDP, respectively.[167]

On July 11, 2017, Deka released Emerging Markets Trends bulletin for July 2017 revising the Russian budgetary balance projections for 2017-2018 to -2.2% and -1.4% of GDP, correspondingly.[168]

On May 10, 2017 Deka published the new issue of Emerging Markets Trends (May 2017) with the Russian budgetary balance projections for 2017-2018 updated to -2.8% of GDP and -2.3%, correspondingly.[169]

On April 11, 2017 Deka released Volkswirtschaft Prognosen April / Mai 2017 confirming the previous budgetary balance projections for Russia (-2.9% of GDP for 2017 and -2.5% of GDP for 2018).[170]

On March 31, 2017 Deka published Emerging Markets Trends April 2017, where the Russian budgetary balance projections for 2017-2018 were indicated at -2.9% and -2.5% of GDP, correspondingly.[171]

On March 8, 2017 Deka provided Emerging Market Trends issue for March 2017 revising the Russian budgetary balance projections for 2017-2018 to -3.0% and -2.5% of GDP, correspondingly.[172]

On February 8, 2017 Deka released new issue of Emerging Market Trends bulletin[173] with the Russian budgetary balance projections for 2017-2018 updated to -2.6% and -1.4% of GDP, correspondingly. The budgetary balance for 2016 was estimated at -3.5% of GDP.

On January 17, 2017 Deka provided January / February 2017 economic forecast.[174] According to the forecast, the Russian budgetary balance is estimated to be at -3.5% of GDP in 2016 and projected to improve to -2.9% in 2017 and -1.6% in 2018.

On December 8, 2016 Deka released December 2016 / January 2017 economic forecast (Volkswirtschaft Prognosen) featuring the updated Russian budgetary balance projections for 2016-2018 that were indicated at -3.5%, -2.9% and -1.6% of GDP, correspondingly.[175]

On November 10, 2016 Deka group published the November / December economic forecast (Volkswirtschaft Prognosen)[176] with the Russian budgetary balance projections for 2016 and 2017 staying unchanged at -3.5% and -2.2% of GDP, correspondingly.

On October 13, 2016 October 2016 issue of Emerging Market Trends was released by Deka featuring the Russian budget balance projection for 2016-2017 at -3.5% and -2.2% of GDP, correspondingly.[177]



Coface



On July 5, 2017 Coface updated the Russian risk assessment and indicated the Russian budget balance projection for 2017 at -2.6% of GDP.[178]

On October 14, 2016 Coface released the Country Risk Barometer for 3Q 2016.[179] In the report the previous Russian budget deficit projection for 2016 was confirmed at 3.8% to GDP.

On October 3, 2016 Coface updated the Russian budget balance projection for 2016 to -3.8% to GDP.[180]



Allianz Group



On January 13, 2017 Allianz provided the revised macroeconomic forecasts for BRIC countries featuring the updated Russian budgetary balance projections for 2017-2018.[181] Allianz estimated the Russian budget deficit for 2016 at 3.7% of GDP expecting it to decrease to 2.7% in 2017 and 2.5% in 2018.

On October 28, 2016 Allianz released forecast tables for BRIC countries with the Russian budget balance projections for 2016-2017 indicated at -3.7% and -2.7% to GDP, correspondingly.[182]



Euler Hermes (Part of Allianz)



On March 30, 2017 EH released country report on Russia (Return to Modest Growth in 2017 While Risks Remain) with the updated fiscal balance projections for 2017 and 2018 indicated at -3.0% and -2.5% of GDP, correspondingly.[183]



Berenberg Bank



Important note: Berenberg Bank updates its forecasts weekly in Macroausblick bulletin. Starting from January 2017 only information on changes of existing projections will be presented here, while the date of the recent release of projections can be found in Russian Federal Budget Deficit / Surplus Projections Datasheet.

On August 11, 2017, Berenberg retained the Russian budgetary balance projections for 2017-2019 at -2.5%, -2.0% and -2.0% of GDP, respectively.[184]

On July 14, 2017, Berenberg provided the Russian budgetary balance projections for 2017-2019 that were indicated at -2.5%, -2.0% and -2.0% of GDP, respectively.[185]

On February 24, 2017 Berenberg Bank provided the updated Russian budgetary balance projections for 2017-2018 in the new weekly issue of Makroausblick 2017.[186] The budgetary balance projection for 2017 retained at -2.9% of GDP, while 2018 projection was corrected to -2.0% of GDP (-1.9% under previous projection).

On January 27, 2017 Berenberg published new revision of Makroausblick 2017 with the Russian budgetary balance projections for 2017-2018 confirmed at -2.9% and -1.9% of GDP, correspondingly.[187] The budgetary balance estimate for 2016 was corrected to -3.8% of GDP.

On January 5, 2017 Berenberg bank released Makroausblick 2017 featuring the revised Russian budgetary balance projections for 2016-2018. The Russian budgetary deficit is estimated to be at 3.9% of GDP in 2016, 2.9% in 2017 and 1.9% in 2018.[188]

On December 9, 2016 new issue of Makroausblick 2016 was released by Berenberg Bank with the Russian budgetary balance projections for 2016-2018 indicated at -4.0%, -2.9% and -2.5% of GDP, correspondingly.[189]



Nordea



On September 6, 2017, Nordea released the new Nordea Economic Outlook (#3 2017) with the Russian public sector balance projections for 2017-2019 indicated at -2.3%, -1.6% and -1.0%, respectively.[190]

On December 1, 2016 Nordea released Economic Outlook Winter 2016 featuring Russian general government budget balance projections for 2016-2018 at -4.0%, -3.0% and -3.0% of GDP, correspondingly.[191]



UniCredit Group



On January 9, 2017 Unicredit Bank released CEE Quarterly January 2017 review featuring the Russian general government balance projections for 2017-2018 indicated at -3.6% and -3.1% of GDP, respectively.[192]



VEB (VneshEconomBank)



On September 22, 2017, VEB released the forecast of the Russian economy development for 2018-2020 featuring the Russian federal budget balance projections under 3 scenarios[193]:

Forecast of VEB for 2017-2020 (September 2017)

-2017201820192020
Baseline (conservative) scenario
Urals crude oil price, USD per barrel50515557
Federal budget balance, % of GDP-2.0-0.90.00.2
Scenario of low oil prices
Urals crude oil price, USD per barrel5043.841.642.4
Federal budget balance, % of GDP-2.0-1.8-1.3-1.4
Moderately optimistic scenario
Urals crude oil price, USD per barrel50515557
Federal budget balance, % of GDP-2.0n/an/an/a

On May 3, 2017 VEB released Forecast of the Russian Economic Development for 2017-2020 featuring baseline scenario and scenario with low crude oil price.[194]



VTB Capital



On September 29, 2016 Mr. Alexandr Isakov, VTB Capital’s economist, commented to Kommersant newspaper that under the baseline scenario assuming the crude oil at USD 40 per barrel and the state expenses frozen at RUR 15.78 trillion throughout 2017-2019, the federal budget deficit will be at 4.1% of GDP in 2017, 3.2% in 2018 and 2.6% in 2019.[195]



Uralsib



On May 17, 2017 Mr. Alexey Devyatov, the Chief Economist of UralSib, announced that he expects the Russian federal budget deficit for 2017 in the range of 1.6-1.8% of GDP subject to retaining plans on budgetary outlays (comments to 1Prime news agency).[196]

On September 13, 2016 Ms. Olga Sterina, an analyst of Uralsib, commented to 1Prime news agency that Uralsib projects the Russian budget deficit at the level of 3.1% to GDP in 2016.[197]



Opinions of Individuals



On December 23, 2016 Mr. Vladimir Putin at the annual news conference provided the updated federal budget deficit projection for 2016 at 3.7% of GDP.[198]



Projections Archive



Projections Made in 2016 (Summary)

Note: the federal budget deficit for 2016 was estimated at 3.5% of GDP (preliminary estimate by the Russian Ministry of Finance).

Following uncertainties of the beginning of the year accompanied by enormous spread of projections, starting from the mid-2016 the major part of experts expected the Russian federal budget deficit to be in the range of 3.0-4.0% of GDP for 2016.

The short-term budgetary projections depend primarily upon the crude oil price dynamics and also the ability of the state to limit outlays and fulfil planned activities related to increase of budgetary revenues, such as privatisation plans for Rosneft, the Russian largest state-run oil company. Specifically, in case the state does not receive RUR 706 billion from Rosneft transaction until the end of 2016, the federal budget deficit for the year is likely to approach 4.5% of GDP. The chances of higher deficit are still low, as soon as Rosneft buy back is agreed and planned for December 2016.

As it comes to the projections made by the state, the key indicators of the Russian federal budget for 2016 were initially envisaged by article 1 of the Federal Law #359-FZ “On the Federal Budget for 2016” dated December 14, 2015[199]. The budget for 2016 was planned under projected average annual Urals crude oil price at USD 50 per barrel, while the real crude oil price dynamics in the first half of the year were quite far from the those projections. That led to decrease in budgetary revenues and corresponding budget deficit growth exceeding initially planned 3% to GDP. As a result, the state decided to amend the law on the federal budget in October 2016 with substantial changes in the planned budgetary indicators for the year assuming 3.66% budget deficit. The amendments to the federal law “On the Federal Budget for 2016” were approved in November 2016.[200]

Budgetary Projections under the Draft Law “On the Federal Budget for 2016” as of October 18, 2016

IndicatorInitial budgetary projections for2016 (December 2015)Updated budgetary projections for2016 (October 2016)
Macroeconomic Assumptions
Budgetary revenues, RUR billion13 738.513 368.6
Budgetary revenues, % of GDP17.46%16.14%
Budgetary outlays, RUR billion16 098.716 403.0
Budgetary outlays, % of GDP20.46%19.81%
Federal budget deficit, RUR billion2 360.23 034.4
Federal budget deficit, % of GDP3.0%3.66%
Nominal GDP, RUR billion78 67382 815
Real GDP growth rates, % to previous year0.7%-0.6%

Source: Accounts Chamber of the Russian Federation[201], calculations by Factosphere.

Projections Made in 2016 (Main Text)

In the first half of 2016 substantial fluctuations of the crude oil price created high level of uncertainty in relation to the Russian federal budget execution and budget deficit projections for the year. With relative stabilisation of the oil prices in the range of USD 40-50 per barrel, the range of projections of the federal budget deficit narrowed to 3.0%-4.1% in the mid-2016.

Due to substantial changes in the economic environment as compared to December 2015, when the budget 2016 was approved, the state decided to introduce amendments to the law on the federal budget for 2016 in October revising budgetary projections for the year.

On October 6, 2016 the Russian Government approved the increase of the federal budget deficit for 2016 from 3.0% to 3.66% of GDP (from RUR 2.36 trillion to RUR 3.034 trillion).[202] Referring to budgetary calculations, the Russian GDP projection for 2016 was increased from RUR 78.673 trillion to RUR 82.815 trillion. The inflation projection was decreased from 6.4% to 5.8%, while the expected average crude oil price was corrected from USD 50 to USD 40 per barrel. The budgetary revenues were projected at RUR 13.3686 trillion (RUR 13.738 trillion projected previously). At the same time, the expected budgetary outlays increased from RUR 16.098 trillion to RUR 16.403 trillion primarily due to growth of defence articles (by RUR 735.16 billion) and social policy articles (by RUR 177.38 billion). The most part of other articles were cut (healthcare, education, mass media, etc.) with the most substantial decrease falling at national economy articles (by RUR 420.73 billion).

The comparison of initial and updated budgetary projections for 2016 is provided below.

Budgetary Projections under the Draft Law “On the Federal Budget for 2016” as of October 18, 2016

IndicatorInitial budgetary projections for2016 (December 2015)Updated budgetary projections for2016 (October 2016)
Macroeconomic Assumptions
Nominal GDP, RUR billion78 67382 815
Real GDP growth rates, % to previous year0.7%-0.6%
Inflation rates, % December / December6.4%5.8%
GDP deflator, % to previous year106.3%103.1%
Investment in fixed capital growth, % to previous year-1.6%-3.7%
Industrial production index, % to previous year100.6%100.4%
Agricultural production growth, % to previous year1.9%3.2%
Retail trade turnover growth, % to previous year0.4%-4.6%
Consumer services growth, % to previous year0.2%-0.5%
Real wages growth, % to previous year-0.2%0.3%
Salaries total, RUR billion19 90319 565
Real disposable income growth, % to previous year-0.7%-5.6%
Exports growth (physical volumes) , % to previous year1.0%0.4%
Imports growth (physical volumes) , % to previous year3.0%-0.7%
Urals crude oil price, USD per barrel4150
Crude oil exports, million tons233.5256.7
Oil products exports, million tons173.0160.0
Crude oil extraction volumes, million tons533.0544.0
Average contracted natural gas price, USD per 1 000 m3185154.7
Natural gas exports, billion m3174.7196.7
RUR/USD exchange rate63.367.5
Budgetary Indicators
Budgetary revenues, RUR billion13 738.513 368.6
Budgetary revenues, % of GDP17.46%16.14%
Budgetary outlays, RUR billion16 098.716 403.0
Budgetary outlays, % of GDP20.46%19.81%
Federal budget deficit, RUR billion2 360.23 034.4
Federal budget deficit, % of GDP3.0%3.66%
Cap of the Reserve Fund, RUR billion5 507.15 797.1
Cap of the Reserve Fund, % of GDP7.00%7.00%
Cap of the internal debt as of the end of the year, RUR billion8 817.89 867.8
Cap of the internal debt as of the end of the year, % of GDP11.21%11.92%
Cap of the external debt as of the end of the year, USD billion55.152.4
Cap of the external debt as of the end of the year, % of GDP4.43%4.27%

Source: Accounts Chamber of the Russian Federation[203], calculations by Factosphere.

It is important to mention that after the appropriate amendments assuming 3.66% federal budget deficit for 2016 were proposed, the Ministry of Finance announced that it considers 3.9% deficit to be more probable scenario due to substantial growth in military spending.[204]

On October 21, 2016 the mentioned amendments to the budget 2016 were approved in the first reading by the State Duma, the lower chamber of the Russian Parliament.[205] On November 9, 2016 the budget was finally approved in the third reading.[206] On November 24, 2016 the federal law introducing amendments was signed by Mr. Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia.[207]



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