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Investments in Russia

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Last updated: August 13, 2017


Russian Investment Forecasts Summary

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

The World Bank

European Commission

OECD

Ministry of Economic Development of Russia

Ministry of Finance of Russia

The Central Bank of Russia

Standard & Poor’s

Analytical Credit Rating Agency (ACRA)

Polls by Centre for Development of Higher School of Economics

Thomson Reuters Polls (consensus expert forecasts)

Vedomosti Newspaper Polls

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy

Institute of National Economy Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences

Centre for Development of Higher School of Economics

Centre for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting

Economic Expert Group

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw)

Raiffeisen Bank

Danske Bank

Nordea

VEB (VneshEconomBank)

UralSib Capital

Weekly Summaries (Archive)




Russian Investment Forecasts Summary



Important note: if not stated otherwise, when mentioning investment dynamics in a specific year the Russian mass media, experts and authorities typically refer to year-over-year percent change of physical volume index of investment in fixed capital (calculated using comparable prices).

Institution / CompanyUpdated2017201820192020
International Institutions
IMF10.07.20172.51.01.01.0
The World Bank (Gross Capital Formation)23.05.20178.01.51.1
The World Bank (Gross Fixed Capital Formation)23.05.20172.02.53.5
European Commission (Gross Fixed Capital Formation)11.05.20171.72.0
OECD (Gross Fixed Capital Formation)07.06.20172.01.6
State Authorities
Ministry of Economic Development of Russia (investment growth, baseline scenario)06.06.20172.02.22.02.1
Ministry of Finance of Russia (baseline scenario)28.10.2016-0.50.91.6
The Central Bank of Russia (baseline scenario, Gross Fixed Capital Formation)22.12.20161.2 ÷ 1.72.0 ÷ 2.51.8 ÷ 2.3
Rating Agencies
Standard & Poor’s (real investment growth)17.03.20171.82.32.32.3
Analytical Credit Rating Agency (ACRA)28.03.20170.31.21.30.9
Russian Economic Research Institutions
Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy (baseline scenario)28.07.20172.12.11.9
Institute of National Economy Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences (inertial scenario)17.05.20175.42.23.7
Centre for Development of Higher School of Economics (baseline scenario)15.05.20172.72.22.82.9
Centre for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting20.10.20162.63.43.7
International Economic Research Institutions
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw, Gross Fixed Capital Formation)30.06.20161.03.0
International Banks, Investment Banks and Corporate Players
Raiffeisen Bank (GFCF)11.07.20173.04.0
Danske Bank31.03.20172.83.0
Nordea06.09.20162.03.0
Russian Banks, Investment Banks and Corporate Players
VneshEconomBank (VEB), baseline scenario03.05.20172.22.32.83.2
Important note: in this section the latest projections come first.



International Monetary Fund (IMF)



On July 10, 2017 IMF presented 2017 Article IV Consultation Staff Report with the Russian investment growth projection for 2017 indicated at 2.5% and 2018-2022 projection stated at 1.0%.[64]



The World Bank



On May 23, 2017 the World Bank released Russia Economic Report #37 (“From Recession to Recovery”) featuring the updated investment growth projections for 2017-2019.[65] Referring to the document, the Russian gross capital formation is expected to increase by 8.0% in 2017, 1.5% in 2018 and 1.1% in 2019. The gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) is projected to grow by 2.0% in 2017, 2.5% in 2018 and 3.5% in 2019.

On November 9, 2016 Russia Economic Report #36 featuring updated projections for the country was published by the World Bank.[66] According to the revised projections, the Russian Gross Capital Formation growth is expected to be at 1.9% in 2016, 6.0% in 2017 and 4.9% in 2018. The corresponding average annual crude oil price is assumed to be at USD 43.3 per barrel in 2016, USD 55.2 per barrel in 2017 and USD 59.9 per barrel in 2018.

On April 6, 2016 the World Bank published Russia Economic Report (#35) called “The Long Journey to Recovery”.[67] In the report the World Bank presented 3 scenarios of the Russian economy developments in 2016-2018 that primarily base on the crude oil price dynamics.



European Commission



On May 11, 2017 European Commission published Spring 2017 Economic Forecast with the updated Russian macroeconomic projections for 2017-2018.[68] According to the forecast, the Russian GFCF is expected to grow by 1.7% in 2017 and 2.0% in 2018. The GFCF contraction for 2016 is estimated at 1.8%.

On February 13, 2017 the European Commission released the Winter Economic Forecast featuring the economy developments projections for Russia for 2017-2018.[69] Referring to the document, the Russian GFCF is projected to grow by 0.9% in 2017 and 1.2% in 2018. The GFCF contraction for 2016 was estimated at 3.6%.

On November 9, 2016 the European Commission published European Economic Forecast for Autumn 2016 with updated projections of GFCF (Gross Fixed Capital Formation) growth in Russia.[70] According to the paper, the Russian GFCF is expected to contract by 4.5% in 2016 with further slight growth by 0.7% in 2017 and 1.1% in 2018.

On May 4, 2016 the European Commission released Spring 2016 Economic Forecast that features updated Russian GFCF growth projections for 2016-2017.[71] Referring to the forecast, the Russian GFCF is expected to contract by 4.6% in 2016 with further moderate growth by 0.3% in 2017.

On February 4, 2016 European Commission released Winter 2016 Economic Forecast report, where the Russian Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) developments projections for 2016 and 2017 were revised to -2.7% and +0.3%, correspondingly.[72] European Commission also released GFCF contraction estimate for 2015 at 9.7%.The previous issue of the report (Autumn 2015) assumed GFCF developments at -1.5% and +2.0% for 2016 and 2017.[73]

Note: it is likely that GFCF data provided by the Russian State Statistics Service have been used in this case (see appropriate comments on differences in the Russian and international methodologies in Definition of Investment section).



OECD



On June 7, 2017 OECD published the Global Economic Outlook June 2016 featuring the updated projections for Russia.[74] The Russian GFCF growth is projected at 2.0% in 2017 and 1.6% in 2018.

On November 28, 2016 OECD released the updated Economic Outlook with the revised Russian fixed investment growth projections for 2016-2018.[75] The Russian Gross Fixed Capital Formation is projected to contract by 5.3% in 2016 demonstrating lacklustre growth in the following years (0.7% in 2017 and 1.5% in 2018).

On June 1, 2016 OECD published OECD Economic Outlook June 2016 featuring revised Russian growth fixed capital formation (GFCF) projections for 2016 and 2017.[76] Referring to the document, the Russian GFCF is expected to contract by 5.1% in 2016 with further minor growth by 1.8% in 2017.



Ministry of Economic Development of Russia



On June 6, 2017 the Ministry’s projections under the baseline scenario were confirmed in the materials supporting the proposed amendments to the law on the federal budget for 2017-2019.[77]

On April 6, 2017 Mr. Maxim Oreshkin, the Russian Minister of Economic Development, presented the Ministry’s updated macroeconomic forecast.[78] The forecast envisages 2 scenarios under the same assumptions on the annual average Urals crude oil price (USD 45.6 per barrel in 2017, USD 40.8 per barrel in 2018, USD 41.6 per barrel in 2019 and USD 42.4 per barrel in 2020).

On December 26, 2016 the Ministry released monthly economic report with the fixed investment contraction projection for 2016 indicated at 3.0%.[79]

On November 25, 2016 the Ministry released investment monitoring for November 2016 with updated estimates of the Russian investment in fixed capital dynamics.[80] In the report the Ministry projected the annual fixed capital contraction at 3.7% assuming the negative dynamics in 4Q 2016.

On October 28, 2016 the Russian Government delivered the draft law “On the Federal Budget for 2017 and the Planning Period of 2018 and 2019” to the State Duma. The package of provided documents comprised comparison of scenarios of social and economic developments of Russia for 2017-2019.[81] The following 3 scenarios were presented:

Fixed Investment Growth Projections of the Russian Government as of October 28, 2016

-20152016201720182019
Urals crude oil price, USD per barrel-----
Baseline scenario51.241404040
Baseline+ scenario51.241485255
Target scenario51.241485255
Fixed investment growth rates, % y/y-----
Baseline scenario-8.4-3.7-0.50.91.6
Baseline+ scenario-8.4-3.71.52.84.4
Target scenario-8.4-3.73.55.56.5

Source: the State Duma of the Russian Federation.[82]

On October 18, 2016 the Ministry reportedly corrected its macroeconomic projections for 2017-2019 once more presumably due to intention to demonstrate better planned budgetary characteristics.[83] According to the updated projections, the Russian investment in fixed capital is expected to contract by -3.7% in 2016 and 0.5% in 2017 with further growth by 0.9% in 2018 and 1.6% in 2019.

On October 11, 2016 the mass media cited the current projections of the Ministry for 2017 that assume the growth of investment in fixed capital at 0.1% in 2017.[84]

On September 22, 2016 gazeta.ru[85], Vedomosti newspaper[86] and Interfax[87] provided the Ministry’s projections of the key macroeconomic indicators for 2016-2019 after the dedicated Government’s meeting that took place on September 21. The baseline scenario of the forecast assumes the contraction of investment in fixed capital at 2.7% in 2016 with further growth by 0.3% in 2017, 2.2% in 2018 and 3.0% in 2019.

On June 22, 2016 Mr. Alexey Vedev, the Deputy Minister of Economic Development, commented that the Ministry projects contraction of the Russian investment in fixed capital at the level of 2.7-3.1% in 2016.[88]

On May 6, 2016 the Ministry published Scenarios and Key Indicators of Forecast of Social and Economic Development of the Russian Federation and Maximum Limits of Prices (Tariffs) for Services of Infrastructure Sector's Companies for 2017, 2018 and 2019[89] (including Appendices[90]). Together with key parameters of baseline and conservative scenarios, the Ministry also disclosed parameters of so-called “target scenario”, which assumes reaching stable economic growth with rates not below the world average, reaching inflation rates of 4% per annum by 2017 and productivity growth by 5% in the medium term. In order to execute the scenario, the Ministry proposes “changing of orientation of economy to investment model while restraining growth of consumption and social obligations of the state and the business in the first years of the period of forecasting”. “Decrease of inflation rates to 4% by 2017 assumes substantial restrain of internal demand and primarily demand from the side of households”.

The target scenario assumes the average annual Urals crude oil price to stay at USD 40 per barrel for all period of forecasting (2016-2019). The investment in fixed capital is expected to contract by 3.1% in 2016 with further strong growth by 3.8% in 2017, 5.3% in 2018 and 7.1% in 2019.

On April 29, 2016 the Ministry released approved projections of dynamics of investment in fixed capital until 2019.[91]

On April 21, 2016 there took place a presentation of the Ministry’s macroeconomic projections for 2016-2019 to the Russian Government.[92] Referring to the announced baseline scenario, the contraction of investment in fixed capital is projected at 3.1% in 2016 with further growth at 2.7% on average in 2017-2019.

On February 8, 2016 Kommersant newspaper released new version of budgetary calculations of the Ministry.[93] The base scenario assumes Urals crude oil price at USD 40 per barrel in 2016 with corresponding projection of investment contraction at 6.0%. The investment contraction under conservative scenario (Urals crude oil price at USD 25 per barrel) is projected at 6.7% for 2016. The investment contraction estimate for 2015 at 8.4% was also provided.

On January 15, 2016 Vedomosti newspaper published summary of the new macroeconomic forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development.[94] Under to base scenario, the investment contraction in Russia is projected to hit 5% in 2016.

On December 7, 2015 Mr. Alexey Ulyukaev, the Russian Minister of Economic Development, announced that he expects no more than 7% investment contraction in 2015 in his interview to Vedomosti newspaper.[95]

On October 7, 2015 the mass media announced that the Ministry released new version of macroeconomic forecast for 2016-2018. Referring to the forecast, the substantial contraction in investment volumes at -9.9% is projected for 2015 with further minor contraction at -1.6%. In 2017 the Ministry expects the slight growth at 2.1% that will continue in 2018 (2.6%).[96]


Ministry of Economic Development: Projections of Investment in Fixed Capital in 2015-2018 (October 2015)


Source: RIA Novosti.



Ministry of Finance of Russia



On October 28, 2016 the Russian Government delivered the draft law “On the Federal Budget for 2017 and the Planning Period of 2018 and 2019” to the State Duma. The package of provided documents comprised comparison of scenarios of social and economic developments of Russia for 2017-2019.[97] The following 3 scenarios were presented:

Fixed Investment Growth Projections of the Russian Government as of October 28, 2016

-20152016201720182019
Urals crude oil price, USD per barrel-----
Baseline scenario51.241404040
Baseline+ scenario51.241485255
Target scenario51.241485255
Fixed investment growth rates, % y/y-----
Baseline scenario-8.4-3.7-0.50.91.6
Baseline+ scenario-8.4-3.71.52.84.4
Target scenario-8.4-3.73.55.56.5

Source: the State Duma of the Russian Federation.[98]



The Central Bank of Russia



On December 22, 2016 the bank released statistical appendix to the Report on Monetary Policy featuring Gross Fixed Capital Formation growth projections for 2016-2019 under 3 scenarios.[99] The projection for 2016, which is common for all scenarios, assumes contraction in the range of 4.0-4.5% under the average annual Urals crude oil price at USD 41 per barrel. The projections for 2017-2019 under different scenarios are as follows:

On September 28, 2016 the Central Bank released Monetary Policy Guidelines for 2017-2019[100] featuring two scenarios of the Russian economy developments. Both scenarios assume the Russian gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) to contract by 6.0-6.5% in 2016 under the average annual Urals crude oil price of USD 40 per barrel.

On March 18, 2016 the Bank released Monetary Policy Report featuring updated investment projections for 2016-2018.[101] According to baseline scenario the Gross Fixed Capital Formation is expected to decrease by 8.2-8.4% in 2016 and by 0.0-1.1% in 2017 with further slight growth at 0.1-0.6% in 2018.



Standard & Poor’s



On March 17, 2017 S&P changed the sovereign credit rating outlook for Russia from stable to positive.[102] In the corresponding press release the Russian real investment growth projections were indicated at 1.8% for 2017 and 2.3% throughout 2018-2020.

On September 16, 2016 S&P changed the sovereign credit rating outlook for Russia to stable providing also real investment growth projections for 2016-2019 at -5.0%, +1.0%, 1.2% and 1.2%, correspondingly.[103] The investment to GDP ratio for 2016-2019 is projected at 21.0%, 21.5%, 21.6% and 21.8%, correspondingly.

On March 18, 2016 S&P affirmed its BB+ sovereign rating for Russia also confirming existing projections of investment dynamics for 2016 and later on.[104]

On February 17, 2016 S&P confirmed its credit ratings on Russia and also provided its projections on the key macroeconomic indicators in 2016-2019.[105] Referring to forecasts, the Russian real investment is expected to contract by 5.0% in 2016 with further growth by 3% in 2017 and 1.5% in 2018-2019.


S&P: Dynamics and Projections of Real Investment Growth in Russia (February 2016)


Source: Standard and Poor's.



Analytical Credit Rating Agency (ACRA)



On March 28, 2017 ACRA provided the updated macroeconomic projections for Russia until 2021.[106] Referring to the forecast, the Russian fixed investment is expected to grow by 0.3% in 2017, 1.2% in 2018, 1.3% in 2019, 0.9% in 2020 and 1.0% in 2021.

On September 12, 2016 ACRA released updated macroeconomic forecast until 2020.[107] Referring to the projections, the investment in fixed capital in Russia is expected to contract by 5.2% in 2016 and 4.5% in 2017 with further slight growth by 1.2% in 2018-2019 and 0.2% in 2020.

On March 21, 2016 Kommersant newspaper announced the first Russian macroeconomic forecast for 2016-2020 to be issued by ACRA, the newly established Russian credit rating agency, over the coming week (March 21-27, 2016).[108] Referring to the cited key indicators of forecast, ACRA expects the Russian investment in fixed capital to contract by 5.2% in 2016 and 1.0% in 2017 with further slight growth at the level of 0.2-1.0% in 2018-2020.



Polls by Centre for Development of Higher School of Economics



On December 16, 2015 Centre for Development finalised experts’ poll on the Russian economy development and released appropriate consensus forecast.[109] Referring to forecast, the investment was projected to contract by 7.5% in 2015 with further minor contraction at 0.1% in 2016.



Thomson Reuters Polls (consensus expert forecasts)



On February 3, 2016 Reuters released results of new poll with consensus investment contraction projection for 2016 indicated at the level of 5%.[110] The previous projection (January 2016) assumed 3% contraction.

On December 2, 2015 Reuters provided data on the November poll with improved consensus investment contraction rates at -6.4% for 2015 following registered improvement in monthly investments statistics.[111]

On October 8, 2015 Thomson Reuters released the results of September poll on the Russian economy developments.[112] Referring to the results, the expert consensus forecast for the Russian dynamics of investment in fixed capital in 2015 was improved from -9.1% to -7.5% primarily due to above-expected dynamics of the indicator in the recent months.



Vedomosti Newspaper Polls



On December 24, 2015 Vedomosti newspaper published the results of its poll (20 experts) on the Russian economy prospects in 2016.[113] Referring to the poll results, the median of investment dynamics projections for 2016 is -0.9%, while maximum projection is at +3.3% and minimum projection is at -5.6%.

Poll participants: Alfa Bank, BCS Financial Group, PF Capital, Renaissance Capital, RosBank, UralSib, Centre for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting, Centre for Development of Higher School of Economics, Centre of Macroeconomic Research of Sberbank, Centre of Economic Forecasting of GaspromBank, Economic Expert Group, Bank of America - Merrill Lynch, BNP Paribas, Capital Economics, Citigroup, Credit Suisse, ING, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley and Royal Bank of Scotland.



Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy



On July 28, 2017 Gaidar Institute in cooperation with RANEPA (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) and Russian Foreign Trade Academy presented the update of the macroeconomic forecast for Russia for 2017-2019 featuring inertial and conservative scenarios.[114]

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy: Russian Investment Growth Projections for 2017-2019, Inertial Scenario (July 2017)

-1Q 2017
Actual
2Q 2017
Actual / Forecast
3Q 2017
Forecast
4Q 2017
Forecast
2017 total2018 total2019 total
Urals crude oil price, USD per barrel52.048.948.750.550.055.055.0
Investment in fixed capital, physical volume index, % to appropriate period of previous year102.3101.6101.9102.4102.1102.1101.9

Source: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy.

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy: Russian Investment Growth Projections for 2017-2019, Conservative Scenario (July 2017)

-1Q 2017
Actual
2Q 2017
Actual / Forecast
3Q 2017
Forecast
4Q 2017
Forecast
2017 total2018 total2019 total
Urals crude oil price, USD per barrel52.048.940.641.045.640.841.6
Investment in fixed capital, physical volume index, % to appropriate period of previous year102.3100.9101.2101.6101.5101.2101.1

Source: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy.

On April 17, 2017 Gaidar Institute in cooperation with RANEPA (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) and Russian Foreign Trade Academy presented the update of the macroeconomic forecast for Russia for 2017-2018 featuring baseline scenario and scenario with depreciating rouble.[115] Both scenarios assume that the annual average Urals crude oil price will be at USD 50 per barrel in 2017 and USD 60 per barrel in 2018.

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy: Russian Investment in Fixed Capital Projections for 2017-2018, Baseline Scenario (April 2017)

-1Q 2016
(actual)
2Q 2016
(actual)
3Q 2016
(actual)
4Q 2016
(actual)
2016 total
(actual)
1Q 20172Q 20173Q 20174Q 20172017 total2018 total
Urals crude oil price, USD per barrel32.644.446.148.943.053.047.050.050.050.060.0
Investment in fixed capital, physical volume index, % to appropriate period of previous year98.898.5100.598.799.1100.3101.1101.9102.6101.7102.5

Source: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy.

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy: Russian Investment in Fixed Capital Projections for 2017-2018, Scenario with Depreciating Rouble (April 2017)

-1Q 2016
(actual)
2Q 2016
(actual)
3Q 2016
(actual)
4Q 2016
(actual)
2016 total
(actual)
1Q 20172Q 20173Q 20174Q 20172017 total2018 total
Urals crude oil price, USD per barrel32.644.446.148.943.053.047.050.050.050.060.0
Investment in fixed capital, physical volume index, % to appropriate period of previous year98.898.5100.598.799.1100.3100.0100.5100.7100.4100.9

Source: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy.

On January 24, 2017 Gaidar Institute released the updated macroeconomic forecast for Russia for 2017-2018 featuring the baseline and conservative scenarios (part of Monitoring of Economic Situation in Russia[116] and the separate document[117]). The fixed investment contraction for 2016 is estimated at 2.0%.

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy: Russian Investment in Fixed Capital Projections for 2017-2018, Baseline Scenario (January 2017)

-1Q 2016
(actual)
2Q 2016
(actual)
3Q 2016
(actual)
4Q 2016
(actual / estimate)
2016 total
(actual / estimate)
1Q 20172Q 20173Q 20174Q 20172017 total2018 total
Urals crude oil price, USD per barrel31.943.643.948.041.950.050.050.050.050.060.0
Investment in fixed capital, physical volume index, % to previous period95.296.1100.3100.398.0100.3101.2102.2102.5101.8102.5

Source: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy.

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy: Russian Investment in Fixed Capital Projections for 2017-2018, Conservative Scenario (January 2017)

-1Q 2016
(actual)
2Q 2016
(actual)
3Q 2016
(actual)
4Q 2016
(actual / estimate)
2016 total
(actual / estimate)
1Q 20172Q 20173Q 20174Q 20172017 total2018 total
Urals crude oil price, USD per barrel31.943.643.948.041.940.040.040.040.040.040.0
Investment in fixed capital, physical volume index, % to previous period95.296.1100.3100.398.0100.3101.1102.1102.3101.7102.0

Source: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy.

On October 3, 2016 Gaidar Institute issued Monitoring of Economic Situation in Russia for September 2016[118] featuring updated macroeconomic projections for 2016-2018 under the baseline and optimistic scenarios.

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy: Russian Investment in Fixed Capital Projections for 2016-2018, Baseline Scenario (September 2016)

-1Q 20162Q 20163Q 20164Q 20162016 total1Q 20172Q 20173Q 20174Q 20172017 total2018 total
Urals crude oil price, USD per barrel32.644.444.039.040.040.040.040.040.040.040.0
Investment in fixed capital, physical volume index, % to previous period95.296.199.599.897.7100.9102.2102.1100.8101.5101.6

Source: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy.

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy: Russian Investment in Fixed Capital Projections for 2016-2018, Optimistic Scenario (September 2016)

-1Q 20162Q 20163Q 20164Q 20162016 total1Q 20172Q 20173Q 20174Q 20172017 total2018 total
Urals crude oil price, USD per barrel32.644.444.047.042.050.050.050.050.050.060.0
Investment in fixed capital, physical volume index, % to previous period95.296.199.5100.097.8101.2102.3102.3101.2101.7102.3

Source: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy.

On June 20, 2016 Gaidar Institute released new issue of Current Monitoring of Economic Situation in Russia with revised projections of key macroeconomic indicators for 2016-2018.[119] Similar to previous forecast, the document features baseline and optimistic scenarios of the Russian economy development.

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy: Investment in Fixed Capital Projections for 2016-2018, Baseline Scenario (June 2016)

-1Q 20162Q 20163Q 20164Q 20162016 total2017 total2018 total
Urals crude oil price, USD per barrel32.641.942.842.8404040
Investment in fixed capital, physical volume index, % to previous period95.297.698.698.798.0101.4101.7

Source: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy.

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy: Investment in Fixed Capital Projections for 2016-2018, Optimistic Scenario (June 2016)

-1Q 20162Q 20163Q 20164Q 20162016 total2017 total2018 total
Urals crude oil price, USD per barrel32.641.952.852.8455060
Investment in fixed capital, physical volume index, % to previous period95.297.699.099.698.4101.9102.4

Source: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy.

On April 18, 2016 Gaidar Institute published April issue of Current Monitoring of Economic Situation in Russia featuring experts’ projections of key macroeconomic indicators for 2016-2017 under baseline and optimistic scenarios.[120]

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy: Investment in Fixed Capital Projections for 2016-2017, Baseline Scenario (April 2016)

-1Q 20162Q 20163Q 20164Q 20162016 total2017 total
Urals crude oil price, USD per barrel323535383540
Investment in fixed capital, physical volume index94.995.996.796.596.299.8

Source: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy.

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy: Investment in Fixed Capital Projections for 2016-2017, Optimistic Scenario (April 2016)

-1Q 20162Q 20163Q 20164Q 20162016 total2017 total
Urals crude oil price, USD per barrel325555.957.15055
Investment in fixed capital, physical volume index94.997.099.299.798.2102.2

Source: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy.

On January 25, 2016 Gaidar Institute released new issue of Current Monitoring of Economic Situation in Russia with updated estimate of investment contraction for 2015 (-8.6%) and investment projections for 2016-2017.[121] The forecast assumes two major scenarios depending on Urals crude oil price dynamics. Under the base scenario the investment in fixed capital is expected to contract by 4.9% in 2016 and by 3.0% in 2017 given the average annual Urals crude oil prices projections of USD 35 and USD 40 per barrel, correspondingly. The optimistic scenario assumes 1.2% contraction in 2016 with further 1.2% growth in 2017 given the average annual Urals crude oil prices at USD 50 and USD 55 per barrel, correspondingly.

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy: Russian CPI Projections for 2016-2017, Base Scenario (January 2016)

-1Q 20162Q 20163Q 20164Q 20162016 total2017 total
Urals crude oil price, USD per barrel303535403540
Investment in fixed capital, physical volume index91.793.795.996.895.197.0

Source: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy.

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy: Russian CPI Projections for 2016-2017, Optimistic Scenario (January 2016)

-1Q 20162Q 20163Q 20164Q 20162016 total2017 total
Urals crude oil price, USD per barrel35.054.054.556.550.055.0
Investment in fixed capital, physical volume index93.396.4100.0101.598.8101.2

Source: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy.

On September 28, 2015 Gaidar Institute presented publication on scenarios of social and economic development of the Russian Federation in 2015-2016 with 3 scenarios elaborated.[122] All scenarios assume index of physical volume of investment in fixed capital to be at 89.0 in 2015 (-11% change as compared to 2014).

The pessimistic scenario projects index of physical volume of investment in fixed capital for 2016 at 96.7 (-3.3% change as compared to 2015).

Under the base scenario the index will amount to 97.6 for 2016 (-2.4% change as compared to 2015).


Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy: Dynamics of Physical Volume Index of Investment in Fixed Capital


Source: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy.

The optimistic scenario assumes the index to be at 99.4 in 2016 (-0.6% change as compared to 2015).



Institute of National Economy Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences



On May 17, 2017 the Institute issued the updated quarterly forecast of the Russian economic indicators for 2017-2019 (#38).[123] Referring to the inertial scenario of the forecast, the Russian investment is supposed to demonstrate 5.4% growth in 2017, 2.2% growth in 2018 and 3.7% growth in 2019 under the gradually increasing crude oil price. Despite the indicated growth, in 2019 the physical volume of investment is expected to be at only 98% of the one registered in 2013.

On January 30, 2017 the institute released the quarterly forecast for 2017-2019 (forecast date: January 18, 2017).[124] Under the updated projections of inertial scenario the Russian fixed capital investment is expected to grow by 3.3% in 2017, 3.0% in 2018 and 3.6% in 2019. Despite the planned growth, by the end of 2019 the investment physical volume is expected to reach only 96% of the one demonstrated in 2013.

On October 23, 2016 the Institute presented updated quarterly macroeconomic forecast for 2016-2019.[125] Under the inertial scenario the following dynamics of Gross Capital Formation are projected:

Institute of National Economy Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences (October 2016)

IndicatorUnit20152016201720182019
Gross capital formation% growth-7.6-4.14.43.25.1

Source: Quarterly macroeconomic forecast of Institute of National Economy Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences (actual data for 2015 are presented).

On June 10, 2016 the Institute released Forecast of the Russian Macroeconomic Indicators for 2016-2018 featuring positive and inertial scenarios of the Russian economy developments.[126] Referring to the document, under the optimistic scenario the Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) is expected to contract by 3.4% in 2016 with further growth by 6.0% 2017 and 4.8% in 2018. Under the inertial scenario the GFCF growth is projected to be lower in 2017-2018 at 5.3% and 4.0%, correspondingly.



Centre for Development of Higher School of Economics



On May 15, 2017 the Centre released its mid-term forecast on the Russian economy development until 2020.[127] According to the baseline scenario of the forecast, the Russian fixed investment is expected to grow by 2.7% in 2017, 2.2% in 2018, 2.8% in 2019 and 2.9% in 2020 under the average annual Urals crude oil price at USD 50 per barrel.

On October 3, 2016 the Centre revised its macroeconomic projections for 2016-2020[128] with the Russian fixed capital investment growth expected at -3.3% in 2016, 1.9% in 2017, 1.6% in 2018, 0.8% in 2019 and 1.7% in 2020.

On March 30, 2016 the Centre presented two scenarios of the Russian economy development until 2020 with corresponding projections of investment in fixed capital.[129]


Centre for Development of HSE: Projected Dynamics of Investment in Fixed Capital until 2020 (“Scenario 35”)


Source: Higher School of Economics.


Source: Higher School of Economics.



Centre for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting



On October 20, 2016 the Centre released presentation of its experts at LINK project conference dedicated to Russia's Economic Development in 2015-2016 and 2017-2019 Outlook[130] (authors: D. Belousov, E. Abramova, A. Apokin, K. Mikhaylenko). According to the presentation, the Russian fixed capital investment is expected to contract by 2.9% in 2016 followed by the growth at 2.6% in 2017, 3.4% in 2018 and 3.7% in 2019.

On July 26, 2016 the Centre released the forecast of the key Russian macroeconomic indicators for 2016-2019 featuring optimistic and pessimistic scenarios.[131]

On April 6, 2016 the Centre presented the analytical review called “Results of 2015 and Economic Developments Forecast for the Medium Term”.[132] In the document the Centre offered two scenarios of economic development of Russia for 2016-2019 relying primarily on the Urals crude oil price dynamics:



Economic Expert Group



On June 24, 2016 the article called “Scenarios of the Russian Economy Development and Their Consideration” featuring projections of the key economic indicators for 2016 was released by Economic Expert Group.[133] Referring to the article, the Russian investment in fixed capital is expected to contract by 7.9% in 2016.



The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw)



On June 30, 2016 the institute released Forecast Report for 22 countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe (CESEE) for 2016-2018.[134] Among other indicators, the report features the Gross Fixed Capital Formation projections for 2016-2018. The institute expects the Russian GFCF to contract by 5.0% in 2016 with further growth by 1.0% in 2017 and 3.0% in 2018.



Raiffeisen Bank



On July 11, 2017, RBI published the annual Russia country report with the Russian gross fixed capital formation growth projections for 2017-2018 indicated at 3.0% and 4.0%, correspondingly.[135]

On July 14, 2016 Raiffeisen Bank International released annual country report on Russia, where the Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) growth projections for 2016-2017 were stated at -4.0% and +3.0%, correspondingly.[136]



Danske Bank



On March 31, 2017 Danske Bank published new Emerging Markets Briefer featuring the updated Russian macroeconomic projections.[137] Referring to the document, the Russian fixed investment is still expected to grow by 2.8% in 2017 and 3.0% in 2018.

On December 19, 2016 Danske Bank released emerging Markets Briefer (“A murky outlook for emerging markets in 2017”).[138] The briefer features the Russian fixed investment growth projections for 2016-2018 at -6.0%, +2.8% and +3.0%, correspondingly.

On October 20, 2016 Danske Bank provided flash comment “Russian output and demand: consumer’s dawn”, where the Russian fixed investment growth projections for 2016 and 2017 were retained at -6.0% and +2.8%, correspondingly.[139]

On September 30, 2016 Danske Bank released Emerging Markets Briefer for September 2016 featuring Russian fixed investment growth projections for 2016-2017 at -6.0% and 2.8%, correspondingly.[140]

On March 18, 2016 Danske Bank released the March issue of Emerging Markets Briefer.[141] Referring to the document, the Russian investment in fixed capital is projected to contract by 6.0% in 2016 with further slight growth at 2.2% in 2017.



Nordea



On September 6, 2016 Nordea issued Nordea Economic Outlook with updated Russian fixed investment growth projections for 2016-2018 at -3.0%, 2.0% and 3.0%, correspondingly.[142]

On April 20-21, 2016 Nordea released Russia Economic Outlook[143] and Emerging Markets Outlook[144], where the dynamics of investment in fixed capital for 2016-2017 was projected at 0.0% and 3.0%, correspondingly.



VEB (VneshEconomBank)



On May 3, 2017 VEB released Forecast of the Russian Economic Development for 2017-2020 featuring baseline scenario and scenario with low crude oil price.[145]

On August 15, 2016 VEB released updated mid-term forecast of the Russian economy developments[146] and macroeconomic forecast for 2016-2020[147]. The documents provide 3 scenarios of the Russian economy developments:


VEB: Projected Dynamics of Russian Investment in Fixed Capital in 2016-2020, Baseline Scenario


Source: VneshEconomBank (VEB).

On March 9, 2016 VEB released its revised macroeconomic forecast for 2016-2018 featuring 3 scenarios of the economic development[148]:

On December 28, 2015 VEB released its corrected macroeconomic forecast for 2016.[149] The bank presented 3 scenarios of economic developments depending on Urals crude oil price dynamics:

On November 3, 2015 VEB released its forecast of the Russian economic development for 2015-2018 with 3 scenarios.[150] All scenarios assume investment contraction at 11% for 2015.



UralSib Capital



On January 26, 2016 Prime news agency cited Ms. Olga Sterina, analyst of UralSib Capital, who provided projection of Russian Capex contraction for 2016 at 0.9%.[151]



Weekly Summaries (Archive)



Weekly Changes in the Russian Fixed Investment Growth Projections / Estimates for 2016 Traced by Factosphere

DateMedian,
% to previous year
Min,
% to previous year
Max,
% to previous year
Number of assessed projections
27.02.2017-3.6-6.0+1.9*7
20.02.2017-3.6-6.0+1.9*7
13.02.2017-3.6-6.0+1.9*7
06.02.2017-3.63-6.0+1.9*6
30.01.2017-3.7-6.0+1.9*11
23.01.2017-3.9-6.0+1.9*10
16.01.2017-3.9-6.0+1.9*10
09.01.2017-3.9-6.0+1.9*10
26.12.2016-3.9-6.0+1.9*14
19.12.2016-3.9-6.5+1.9*14
12.12.2016-3.9-6.5+1.9*14
05.12.2016-3.9-6.5+1.9*14
28.11.2016-3.9-6.5+1.9*14
21.11.2016-3.9-6.5+1.9*14
14.11.2016-3.9-6.5+1.9*14
07.11.2016-4.0-6.5-2.313
31.10.2016-4.0-6.5-2.313
24.10.2016-4.05-6.5-2.312
17.10.2016-4.0-6.5-2.311
10.10.2016-4.0-6.5-2.311
03.10.2016-4.0-6.5-2.311
26.09.2016-4.0-7.9-2.011
19.09.2016-4.0-7.9-2.011
12.09.2016-4.0-7.9-2.011
05.09.2016-4.0-7.9-2.010
29.08.2016-4.3-7.9-2.010

* Gross Capital Formation (the World Bank).
Source: Calculations by Factosphere.



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