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Inflation in Russia

Inflation Summary | CPI Dynamics | PPI Dynamics | GDP Deflator Dynamics | Inflation Forecasts | International Comparisons | Datasheet | Sources |


Last updated: October 6, 2017


Short-Term Inflation Projections

Medium-Term Inflation Projections

Russian Inflation Forecasts Datasheet

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

The World Bank

UN Development Policy and Analysis Division (DESA)

European Commission

OECD

OPEC

Eurasian Development Bank

Bank for International Settlements

Ministry of Economic Development of Russia

Ministry of Finance of Russia

Central Bank of Russia

Accounts Chamber of the Russian Federation

Standard & Poor’s

Moody’s

Analytical Credit Rating Agency (ACRA)

Expert Surveys of HSE

Reuters Polls (consensus forecasts)

Bloomberg Poll (consensus forecasts)

The Economist Polls

RosBusinessConsulting Polls

Vedomosti Newspaper Polls

Centre for Development of Higher School of Economics

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy

Centre for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting

Economic Expert Group

Institute of National Economy Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences

Centre for Strategic Research

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw)

DIW Berlin

CESifo Group Munich

Kiel Institute for the World Economy

Halle Institute for Economic Research

German Council of Economic Experts (Sachverständigenrat)

Economist Intelligence Unit

PwC

Morgan Stanley

JP Morgan

Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Fitch

UniCredit Group

Raiffeisen Bank

ING Group

Danske Bank

Nordea

SEB Group

BNP Paribas

Deka Group

Berenberg Bank

DNB

Allianz Group

Euler Hermes (Part of Allianz)

CommerzBank

Credit Suisse

Wells Fargo

Coface

Sberbank

Sberbank CIB

VEB (VneshEconomBank)

VTB

VTB 24

VTB Capital

Alfa Bank

GaspromBank

UralSib

BCS Financial Group

Opinions of Individuals

Projections for 2016 (Archive)




Short-Term Inflation Projections



The inflation suppression policy that commenced in 2015 has been by far quite effective with a downside being underperforming consumption and economic growth. The Russian Central Bank has not been changing its inflation target for 2017 (4.0% December to December) since September 2015.[59]

The lowering inflation rates in the second half of 2016 owing to stabilising crude oil prices and very conservative base rate policy of the Central Bank created good ground for cautious optimism on the short-term and medium-term inflation rates.

It is still not clear whether the Russian Central Bank will reach its target of 4.0% for 2017, but in any case the inflation rates are commonly projected not to exceed 5.0% for the year beating the record low level in the history of modern Russia.



Medium-Term Inflation Projections



The Russian Government considers inflation targeting strategy as a cornerstone for the Russian economy support in the present turbulent environment, and the inflation rates are commonly projected to remain low in the coming years as a result of implementation of this strategy.

All in all, reaching the present inflation targets of the Russian state for the medium term at around 4% p.a. still seems to be rather challenging task given the present status and existing risks.

The medium-term inflation rates will primarily depend upon the following factors:

Crude Oil Price Dynamics

The crude oil price is still the major factor influencing inflation projections and overall macroeconomic landscape in Russia. The first half of the year 2016 showed that the crude’s developments can be quite unstable, and such instability may ruin all existing projections. In case the crude oil price stays in the range of USD 40-60 per barrel or goes up further as a result of leading oil producing countries reaching and properly executing agreement on oil supply limitation in the end, there is a high probability of hitting the state’s inflation targets for the medium term. However, the pressure on the price from the side of the shale oil producers is expected to be increasing, so there are still chances of the oil price deterioration.

Commitment of the State to Inflation Targeting Strategy

There has already been some pressure on the Central Bank with proposals on facilitating economic growth by means of measures extending money supply with appropriate impact on inflation. Among examples we can mention proposal on introduction of quantitative easing[60] by Stolypin club, a think tank led by Mr. Boris Titov, the Russian business ombudsman. However, at present the Central Bank has solid position on its inflation targeting strategy supported by the Russian President.

There is still a probability of some changes in the state strategy in relation to inflation, when the strategy of the economy development contributed by the Russian economic think tanks and experts is to be presented by the Ministry of Economic Development in the mid-2017. However, such probability can be considered as quite low for the moment (opinion of factosphere.com).

Impact of International Sanctions and Counter-Sanctions

The effects of sanctions and counter sanctions shall also be considered while analysing both the short-term and long-term inflation prospects. In case the sanctions and counter-sanctions are fully or partially abolished that would have positive impact on reaching inflation targets in Russia.

Expected Gradual Depletion of the Sovereign Funds

When assessing inflation projections under scenario of deteriorating external factors (meaning, primarily, negative dynamics of the crude oil price), the risks related to financial stability of the state arise in the medium term with their potential impact on inflation rates.

In case of dramatic slump in oil prices in the coming years it will be quite challenging for the state to cover widening budgetary gap in a satisfactory way, as far as the shrinking size of the sovereign funds would offer only a short-term cushion. In accordance with available projections, under the normal flow of events the Russian Reserve Fund is expected to deplete by the mid-2017, while the Russian National Wealth Fund to be further used for budget deficit coverage is likely to decrease to the level of about 3% of GDP by the end of 2018 having much smaller share of liquid assets (approximately at 1%-1.5% of GDP).

At the same time, in such situation both the external and internal borrowings will be hardly achievable due to rocketing level of investor risks. Therefore, with no other options available, at some point the Russian Central Bank would be forced to suspend inflation targeting strategy and allow for substantial local currency deterioration with related growth in inflation rates.

The state is still capable of managing those risks by means of measures aimed at keeping satisfactory size of the sovereign funds and securing their replenishment. Specifically, instead of covering the budgetary deficit using the funds, the state could engage other instruments, such as additional borrowings, sale of the state-owned assets, etc.

Presidential Elections to Take Place in 2018

Low inflation rates are an important factor of political stability, and that fact is well understood by the decision-makers at the state level. The present inflation targeting strategy, to much extent, reflects that understanding. While approaching 2018 presidential elections, we are likely to evidence the state’s commitment to restraining inflation rates.



Russian Inflation Forecasts Datasheet



Important note: Please, note that the provided figures represent publicly available information and do not cover data of reports with limited distribution and other closed or limited sources.

Institution / CompanyUpdated2017201820192020
International Organisations
International Monetary Fund (IMF), year average10.07.20174.24.04.04.0
International Monetary Fund (IMF), year end10.07.20174.04.04.04.0
The World Bank (year average)23.05.20174.14.04.0
UN Development Policy and Analysis Division (year average)17.01.20176.64.7
European Commission (year average)11.05.20174.44.0
OECD (year average)07.06.20174.24.0
OPEC (year average)12.09.20174.14.0
Eurasian Development Bank10.08.20173.94.14.0
Bank for International Settlements25.06.20174.2---
State Authorities
Ministry of Economic Development of Russia (baseline scenario, year end)31.08.20173.74.04.04.0
Ministry of Economic Development of Russia (baseline scenario, year average)31.08.20174.04.04.04.0
Ministry of Economic Development of Russia (current projection, year end)15.09.20173.2---
Ministry of Finance of Russia11.07.20174.04.04.04.0
Ministry of Finance of Russia (current projection)15.09.20173.2---
Central Bank of Russia (baseline scenario, year end)15.09.20173.5÷3.84.04.04.0
Central Bank of Russia (baseline scenario, year average)15.09.20174.04.04.04.0
Rating Agencies
Standard and Poor’s (year average)17.03.20174.54.04.04.0
Moody’s30.08.20173.84.0
Fitch (year average)02.10.20174.04.54.5
Analytical Credit Rating Agency (ACRA)28.03.20174.34.04.54.3
Results of Expert Polls
Higher School of Economics Poll (consensus)15.08.20174.24.24.24.2
Reuters Poll (consensus)04.10.20173.74.04.0
Bloomberg Poll (consensus)06.09.20173.94.0
The Economist Poll (year average)05.10.20174.04.0
Russian Economic Research Institutions
Centre for Development of Higher School of Economics (baseline scenario)15.05.20174.04.04.03.9
Centre for Development of Higher School of Economics (current forecast)14.03.20174.0
Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy (inertial scenario)28.07.20174.13.93.6
Centre for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting26.10.20165.74.54.2
Institute of National Economy Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences (inertial scenario)17.05.20174.24.13.8
Centre for Strategic Research07.11.201643.93.8
Centre for Strategic Research (current forecast)19.05.20173.0÷4.0--
International Economic Research Institutions
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw, year average)16.03.20175.05.05.0
DIW Berlin (year average)08.09.20174.24.14.0
CESifo Group Munich (year average)28.09.20174.44.24.0
CESifo Group Munich (year end)20.06.20174.14.5
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (year average)07.09.20175.54.24.4
Halle Institute for Economic Research (year average)09.06.20165.0
German Council of Economic Experts (year average)20.03.20175.16.1
International Banks, Investment Banks and Corporate Players
Economist Intelligence Unit (year average)20.09.20174.14.04.84.3
PwC (year average)11.08.20174.74.544
Morgan Stanley20.07.20174.14.3
Bank of America Merrill Lynch (year end)24.08.20173.3
Bank of America Merrill Lynch (year average)13.12.20165.04.0
JP Morgan21.09.20164.54.4
Unicredit Group (year average)09.01.20174.84.2
Raiffeisen Bank (year average)02.10.20174.04.54.3
Raiffeisen Bank (year end)11.07.20173.74.5
ING Group09.02.20164.5
Danske Bank31.03.20174.03.7
Nordea (year average)06.09.20174.04.0
SEB Group (year average)01.09.20174.34.24.5
BNP Paribas (year average)10.07.20174.54.5--
Deka Group (year average)13.09.20173.94.0
Berenberg Bank (year average)29.09.20174.34.64.6
DNB (year average)07.09.20174.54.04.04.0
Allianz Group (year average)13.01.20175.36.0
Euler Hermes (year average)30.03.20174.75.3
Commerzbank (year average)29.09.20173.64.0
Credit Suisse (presumably year average)18.09.20174.04.0
Wells Fargo (year average)04.04.20174.44.5
Coface (year average)05.07.20174.2---
Russian Banks, Investment Banks and Corporate Players
Sberbank (baseline scenario)23.08.20173.84.04.0
VneshEconomBank (VEB), baseline scenario, year average22.09.20173.93.93.83.8
VneshEconomBank (VEB), baseline scenario, year end22.09.20173.43.93.83.8
VTB01.03.20175.0
VTB Capital07.06.20173.8
Alfa Bank28.04.201610.0
UralSib09.03.20174.1
BSC Financial Group14.04.20175.0---
Important note: within the sections on specific players below the most recent projections come first.



International Monetary Fund (IMF)



On July 10, 2017 IMF presented 2017 Article IV Consultation Staff Report with the Russian CPI growth projections for 2017 revised to 4.2% and 2018 projection retained at 4.0% (year average). The year-end projections were indicated at 4.0% for both 2017 and 2018.[61]

On May 19, 2017 IMF released Staff Concluding Statement of the 2017 Article IV Mission in the Russian Federation.[62] The Russian CPI growth for 2017 is expected to reach 4.0% target of the Russian Central Bank and is supposed to remain close to that level in the following years.

On May 11, 2017 IMF published the Regional Economic Outlook May 2017 (Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe. A Broadening Recovery).[63] The document features the Russian CPI growth projections for 2017-2018 at 4.4% and 4.0%, correspondingly (year end). The year average projections were indicated at 4.5% and 4.2%, correspondingly.

On April 18, 2017 IMF released World Economic Outlook April 2017 featuring the updated Russian CPI growth projections indicated at 4.4% for 2017 and 4.0% for 2018-2022.[64] The year-average CPI growth projections were indicated at 4.5% for 2017, 4.2% for 2018 and 4.0% for 2019-2022.

On November 29, 2016 IMF mission provided conclusions on the visit to Russia revising the Russian CPI growth projection for 2016 to 5.6%.[65]

On November 2, 2016 IMF issued regional economic outlook report for Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (Effective Government for Stronger Growth).[66] In the report the CPI projections for 2016-2017 have been retained at 7.2% and 5.0%, correspondingly (year average). The year-end CPI growth projections have been indicated at 5.9% for 2016 and 4.9% for 2017.

On October 3, 2016 IMF released the World Economic Outlook[67] with the Russian CPI growth projections at 7.2% in 2016 and 5.0% in 2017 (year average).[68]

On September 30, 2016 TASS information agency disclosed the updated CPI growth projections of IMF to be officially released in the beginning of October 2016[69]. The new projections assume 5.9% CPI growth in 2016 and 4.9% growth in 2017 (year end).

On July 13, 2016 IMF issued Staff Report for the 2016 Article IV Consultation on the Russian Federation, where the revised CPI growth projections for 2016-2017 have been disclosed.[70] Referring to the document, the year average CPI growth is expected at 7.5% in 2016 and 5.7% in 2017. The year-end projections assume 6.6% growth in 2016 and 5.2% growth in 2017.

On May 19, 2016 IMF revised the Russian macroeconomic forecast for 2016-2017 in Staff Concluding Statement of the 2016 Article IV Mission.[71] Referring to the document, the inflation in Russia is expected to decrease to 6.5% in 2016 (year-end) slowing down further in 2017 following inflation targets of the Russian Central Bank.

On April 12, 2016 IMF released World Economic Outlook for April 2016, where it provided the Russian GDP development projections for 2016-2021.[72]


IMF: Russian CPI Changes Projections for 2016-2021 (April 2016)


Source: International Monetary Fund.

On November 23, 2015 IMF released a statement on the visit to the Russian Federation, in which year-end inflation projection was announced at 12.7%.[73]

On September 29, 2015 the mass media announced IMF revisiting Russian CPI growth projections for 2015 and 2016 to be at 15.8% and 8.6%, correspondingly (period average CPI).[74]

In April’s World Economic Outlook IMF provided CPI projections for 2015-2020 in Russia.[75] Referring to the report, CPI growth will gradually decrease to 4% pa by 2018 and will stay at this level for the following years.


IMF: Russian CPI Changes Projections for 2015-2020 (April 2015)


Source: International Monetary Fund.



The World Bank



On May 23, 2017 the World Bank released Russia Economic Report #37 (“From Recession to Recovery”) featuring the updated CPI growth projections for 2017-2019.[76] Referring to the document, the Russian CPI is expected to grow by 4.1% in 2017, 4.0% in 2018 and 4.0% in 2019 (year average).

On November 9, 2016 Russia Economic Report #36 featuring updated projections for the country was published by the World Bank.[77] According to the revised projections, the Russian CPI growth is expected to be at 7.1% in 2016, 4.5% in 2017 and 4.0% in 2018 (year average). The corresponding average annual crude oil price is assumed to be at USD 43.3 per barrel in 2016, USD 55.2 per barrel in 2017 and USD 59.9 per barrel in 2018.

On April 6, 2016 the World Bank published Russia Economic Report (#35) called “The Long Journey to Recovery”.[78] In the report the World Bank presented 3 scenarios of the Russian economy developments in 2016-2018 that primarily base on the crude oil price dynamics.


The World Bank: Projected Dynamics of CPI in Russia in 2016-2018 (April 2016, year average, baseline scenario)


Source: World Bank.

On September 30, 2015 Ms. Birgit Hansl, Program Leader and Lead Economist for the Russian Federation, Europe and Central Asia, informed the mass media that the World Bank forecasts inflation in Russia at 12.8% in 2015 and 6% in 2016 (as of the end of the year).[79] Referring to the Bank’s report on the Russian economy[80] released on the same day, the year-average inflation in Russia is projected at 15.5% in 2015, 7.5% in 2016 and 5% in 2017 (base scenario).



UN Development Policy and Analysis Division (DESA)



On January 17, 2017 DESA published World Economic Situation and Prospects 2017 study.[81] Referring to the paper, the Russian CPI growth for 2016 is estimated at 7.2% (year average). The CPI is projected to grow by 6.6% in 2017 and 4.7% in 2018.

On January 20, 2016 DESA published full version of the report World Economic Situation and Prospects 2016.[82] In the report the consumer price inflation in Russia was estimated at 15.9% in 2015 (weighted average) and projected at the level of 10.5% and 7.1% in 2016 and 2017, correspondingly.



European Commission



On May 11, 2017 European Commission published Spring 2017 Economic Forecast with the updated Russian macroeconomic projections for 2017-2018.[83] According to the forecast, the Russian CPI is expected to grow by 4.4% in 2017 and 4.0% in 2018 (year average).

On February 13, 2017 the European Commission released the Winter Economic Forecast featuring the economy developments projections for Russia for 2017-2018.[84] Referring to the document, the Russian CPI is projected to grow by 5.2% in 2017 and 4.4% in 2018 (year average). The CPI growth for 2016 was estimated at 7.2%.

On November 9, 2016 the European Commission published European Economic Forecast for Autumn 2016 with updated Russian CPI growth projections.[85] According to the paper, the Russian CPI is expected to grow by 7.3% in 2016, 5.2% in 2017 and 4.2% in 2018 (year average).

On May 4, 2016 the European Commission released Spring 2016 Economic Forecast that features updated Russian CPI growth projections for 2016-2017.[86] Referring to the forecast, the Russian CPI is expected to increase by 7.5% in 2016 and 5.5% in 2017 (year average).

On February 4, 2016 European Commission released Winter 2016 Economic Forecast report, where the Russian CPI growth projections for 2016 and 2017 were revised to 8.5% and 6.2% (year average), correspondingly.[87] The previous issue of the report (Autumn 2015) assumed CPI growth at 8.0% and 6.0% for 2016 and 2017.[88] The Commission also provided CPI growth figure for 2015 at 15.7% (year average).



OECD



On June 7, 2017 OECD published the Global Economic Outlook June 2016 featuring the updated projections for Russia.[89] The Russian CPI growth is projected at 4.2% in 2017 and 4.0% in 2018 (year average).

On November 28, 2016 OECD released the updated Economic Outlook with the revised Russian CPI growth projections for 2016-2018.[90] The Russian CPI growth is projected to slow down from 7.2% in 2016 to 5.9% in 2017 and 5.0% in 2018 (year average).

On June 1, 2016 OECD published OECD Economic Outlook June 2016 featuring revised Russian CPI growth projections for 2016 and 2017.[91] Referring to the document, the Russian CPI is expected to increase by 7.3% in 2016 and 5.3% in 2017 (year average).



OPEC



On September 12, 2017, OPEC issued the Monthly Oil Market report for September 2017.[92] The Russian CPI growth projections for 2017-2018 were revised to 4.1% and 4.0%, respectively.

On August 10, 2017, OPEC released the new monthly oil market report.[93] The Russian CPI growth projections for 2017-2018 were retained at 4.1%.

On July 12, 2017, OPEC published monthly oil market report for July 2017. The Russian CPI growth is projected at 4.1% for 2017-2018.[94]

On June 13, 2017 OPEC released the oil market report for June 2017 revising the Russian CPI growth projection for 2017 to 4.0% (year average).[95]

On May 11, 2017 OPEC published the oil market report for May 2017 with the Russian CPI growth projection for 2017 retained at 4.4% (year average).[96]

On April 12, 2017 OPEC released the monthly Oil Market Report for April 2017.[97] The Russian CPI projection for the year was corrected to 4.4% (year average).

On March 14, 2017 the new issue of OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report was released featuring the Russian CPI growth projection for 2017 retained at 5.4% (year average).[98]

On February 13, 2017 OPEC released the new issue of Monthly Oil Market Report with the Russian CPI growth estimate for 2016 corrected from 7.1% to 7.0% and 2017 projection remaining at 5.4% (year average).[99]

On January 18, 2017 OPEC published the new issue of the Monthly Oil Market Report.[100] Referring to the paper, the Russian CPI growth estimate for 2016 remained at 7.1% and 2017 projection stayed at 5.4% (year average).

On December 14, 2016 OPEC released the Monthly Oil Market Report for December 2016 with the Russian CPI growth projections for 2016-2017 updated to 7.1% and 5.4%, correspondingly (year average).[101]

On November 11, 2016 the new issue of Monthly Oil Market Report was released with the updated CPI growth projections for 2016 and 2017 indicated at 7.1% and 5.5%, correspondingly (year average).[102]

On October 12, 2016 the OPEC’s monthly oil market report was released with the Russian CPI growth projections for 2016-2017 staying unchanged at 7.2% and 5.7%, correspondingly (year average).[103]

On September 12, 2016 OPEC published Oil Market Report for September 2016 featuring Russian CPI growth projections with forecasted growth rates staying at previous level of 7.2% for 2016 and slightly revised rate of 5.7% for 2017 (year average).[104]

On August 10, 2016 OPEC released new Monthly Oil Market Report with the Russian CPI growth projection for 2016 remaining at 7.2% (year average).[105] OPEC also corrected CPI growth projection for 2017 to 5.8% (5.3% previously).

On July 12, 2016 OPEC published Monthly Oil Market Report, where the Russian CPI growth projection for 2016 was revised to 7.2% (year average), while 2017 projection was introduced at 5.3%.[106]

On June 13, 2016 new issue of the Monthly Oil Market Report was released by OPEC.[107] Referring to the report, the Russian CPI growth projection for 2016 was corrected from 7.1% to 6.6% (year average).

On May 13, 2016 OPEC released May issue of the Oil Market Report with the Russian CPI growth projection for 2016 decreased to 7.1% (year average).[108]

On April 13, 2016 OPEC published April issue of the Oil Market Report with the Russian CPI growth projection for 2016 remaining unchanged at 7.5% (year average).[109]

On March 14, 2016 in the new monthly issue of the Oil Market Report OPEC provided the Russian CPI growth projection at 7.5% (year average).[110]

On October 12, 2015 OPEC revised Russian CPI growth projections for 2015 and 2016 to 15.3% and 7.8%, correspondingly (year-average projections).[111]

On September 14, 2015 OPEC released September issue of Monthly Oil Market Report, in which the Russian CPI growth for 2015 and 2016 was projected at the level of 14.5% and 6.5%, correspondingly.[112]



Eurasian Development Bank



On August 10, 2017, EDB released the macroeconomic review for August 2017.[113] The Russian CPI growth projections for 2017-2019 were revised to 3.9%, 4.1% and 4.0%, respectively.

On May 24, 2017 EDB published the macroeconomic review for May 2017 featuring the updated Russian CPI growth projections for 2017-2019 at 3.7%, 3.9% and 4.0%, correspondingly.[114]

On April 11, 2017 the Bank released the monthly macroeconomic review for March 2017 with the CPI growth projections for 2017-2019 staying at 4.1%, +4.0% and 4.0%, correspondingly.[115]

On March 13, 2017 the bank published the monthly macroeconomic review for March 2017, where the Russian CPI growth projections for 2017-2019 were retained at 4.1%, 4.0% and 4.0%, correspondingly.[116]

On January 30, 2017 the bank released Macroeconomic Review January 2017[117] featuring the Russian CPI growth estimate for 2016 at 5.4% and updated CPI growth projections for 2017-2019 at 4.1%, 4.0% and 4.0%, correspondingly.

On October 14, 2016 Eurasian Development Bank published Macroeconomic Review October 2016[118] with the Russian CPI growth projections for 2016-2018 corrected to 5.5%, 4.6% and 3.9%, correspondingly. The average annual Urals crude oil price for 2016-2018 is projected at USD 41.4, USD 49.6 and USD 52.6 per barrel, correspondingly. The RUR/USD exchange rate is expected at 67.3, 63.8 and 64.4, correspondingly.

On August 2, 2016 the bank released macroeconomic review on the participating countries for the period of 2016-2018.[119] Referring to the review, the Russian CPI is projected to grow by 5.8% in 2016, 4.8% in 2017 and 4.4% in 2018.



Bank for International Settlements



On June 25, 2017, BIS released 87th annual report (2016/17) featuring the Russian CPI growth projection for 2017 indicated at 4.2% (year end).[120]



Ministry of Economic Development of Russia



On September 15, 2017, Mr. Maxim Oreshkin, the Russian Minister of Economic Development, announced that the Ministry revised the CPI growth projection for 2017 to 3.2% commenting also that the inflation rates may even fall as low as 3.0%.[121]

On August 31, 2017, the Ministry officially released new macroeconomic projections under the baseline scenario and target scenario, which assumes implementation of a number of measures aimed at acceleration of the growth rates.[122]

CPI Growth Projections of the Ministry of Economic Development (August 2017)

-2017201820192020
Baseline scenario
Urals crude oil price, USD per barrel49.043.841.642.4
CPI growth, % y/y (year end)3.74.04.04.0
CPI growth, % y/y (year average)4.04.04.04.0
RUR / USD rate59.764.766.968.0
Target scenario
Urals crude oil price, USD per barrel49.043.841.642.4
CPI growth, % y/y (year end)3.74.04.04.0
CPI growth, % y/y (year average)4.04.04.04.0
RUR / USD rate59.764.266.067.4

On August 1, 2017, Mr. Maxim Oreshkin, the Russian Minister of Economic Development, commented that the Ministry will retain the inflation projection for 2017 at 3.8% in the course of the macroeconomic forecast revision to be made in August.[123]

On June 8, 2017 the Ministry released Inflation Picture bulletin with the current CPI growth projection for 2017 indicated in the range of 4.0-4.1%.[124]

On June 6, 2017 the Ministry’s projections under the baseline scenario were confirmed in the materials supporting the proposed amendments to the law on the federal budget for 2017-2019.[125]

On May 15, 2017 the Ministry of Economic Development released the Inflation Picture bulletin[126], where it confirmed the Russian inflation projection at 3.8% for 2017 under the baseline scenario (assumes depreciating rouble) and indicated that given the current developments as it comes to the RUR exchange rate the inflation may fall as low as 2.9% by the year end.

On April 6, 2017 Mr. Maxim Oreshkin, the Russian Minister of Economic Development, presented the Ministry’s updated macroeconomic forecast.[127] The forecast envisages 2 scenarios under the same assumptions on the annual average Urals crude oil price (baseline and target scenarios). Both scenarios assume year-end inflation rates at 3.8% in 2017 and 4.0% throughout 2018-2020. The year-average inflation rates are projected at 4.0% throughout 2017-2020.

On March 7, 2017 the representatives of the Ministry of Economic Development commented to the press that the prospect of reaching the inflation target for 2017 (4.0%) are beyond doubt.[128]

On December 26, 2016 the Ministry released monthly economic report with the CPI growth projection for 2016 indicated at 5.6%.[129]

On December 21, 2016 Izvestia newspaper reported that the Ministry revised the inflation projection for 2016 to the range of 5.5-5.6% citing Mr. Alexey Vedev, the Deputy Minister of Economic Development.[130]

On December 12, 2016 the Ministry of Economic Development released weekly monitoring report[131], where it provided the new estimate of inflation rates in Russia for 2016 at 5.5%-5.7%.

On November 25, 2016 the Ministry of Economic Development released Forecast of Social and Economic Development of Russia for 2017-2019 confirming its projections under scenarios disclosed on October 28, 2016 (see below).[132] The CPI growth estimate for 2016 was indicated once again at 5.8%.

On November 8, 2016 Mr. Alexey Ulyukaev, the Russian Minister of Economic Development, announced at presentation for Italian entrepreneurs that the Ministry expects the Russian inflation rates slowing down to 5.5% in 2016 and 4.0% in 2017.[133]

On October 28, 2016 the Russian Government delivered the draft law “On the Federal Budget for 2017 and the Planning Period of 2018 and 2019” to the State Duma. The package of provided documents comprised comparison of scenarios of social and economic developments of Russia for 2017-2019.[134] The following 3 scenarios were presented:

CPI Growth Projections of the Russian Government for 2016-2019 as of October 28, 2016

-20152016201720182019
Urals crude oil price, USD per barrel-----
Baseline scenario51.241404040
Baseline+ scenario51.241485255
Target scenario51.241485255
CPI growth, year end-----
Baseline scenario12.95.84.04.04.0
Baseline+ scenario12.95.84.54.34.1
Target scenario12.95.84.33.93.9
CPI growth, year average-----
Baseline scenario15.57.14.74.04.0
Baseline+ scenario15.57.15.04.44.2
Target scenario15.57.14.94.23.9

Source: the State Duma of the Russian Federation.[135]

On October 18, 2016 the Ministry reportedly corrected its macroeconomic projections for 2017-2019 once more presumably due to intention to demonstrate better planned budgetary characteristics.[136] In the updated projections the inflation rates stayed at previous level (5.8% in 2017, 4.0% in 2018 and 4.0% in 2019).

On October 12, 2016 the Ministry of Economic Development reportedly delivered the final version of its macroeconomic projections for 2017-2019 to the Russian Government with no further adjustments expected.[137] The forecast envisages two scenarios of the economy developments[138]. The baseline scenario assumes the average annual crude oil price staying at USD 40 per barrel in 2017-2019. Under this scenario the Russian CPI is expected to grow by 5.8% in 2017, 4.0% in 2018 and 4.0% in 2019.

On October 11, 2016 the mass media cited Mr. Alexey Ulyukaev, who announced that the Ministry is not going to revise the official inflation projection for 2016 at 5.8%.[139] It was also stated that the Ministry’s inflation projection for 2017 was revised to 4.0% to be in line with the Central Bank’s forecast. The Ministry is also likely to revise projections starting from 2018 to 4.0% or below under the updated baseline scenario.

On October 10, 2016 Mr. Alexey Ulyukaev, the Russian Minister of Economic Development, revised the Russian inflation projection for 2016 to 5.4-5.5%.[140]

On September 22, 2016 gazeta.ru[141] and Vedomosti newspaper[142] provided the Ministry’s projections of the key macroeconomic indicators for 2016-2019 after the dedicated Government’s meeting that took place on September 21. The baseline scenario of the forecast assumes inflation rates at 5.8% in 2016, 4.9% in 2017, 4.4% in 2018 and 4.1% in 2019.

On September 15, 2016 Mr. Alexey Ulyukaev commented to the press that he expects inflation in 2016 at 5.7-5.8%.[143]

On August 30, 2016 the Russian Ministry of Economic Development revised its CPI forecast for 2016 to 5.8% as compared to 6.5% under the official forecast made in April 2016 (citing Vedomosti newspaper that had access to the draft of social and economic projections delivered to the Ministry of Finance for discussion).[144] The projected average annual Urals crude oil price was corrected to USD 41 per barrel for 2016 (USD 40 per barrel under April’s projection).

The CPI projections for 2017-2019 under the baseline scenario have not been substantially revised as compared to April: 4.9% in 2017 (no change), 4.4% in 2018 (4.5% previously) and 4.1% in 2019 (4.0% previously) assuming the crude staying at the level of USD 40 per barrel.

The Ministry also prepared a “baseline plus” scenario assuming the optimistic crude oil price developments in 2017-2019 (USD 50 per barrel in 2017 and USD 55 per barrel in 2018-2019) that is proposed to be a base for budgetary projections. The scenario assumes CPI to grow in 2017-2019 by 4.6%, 4.2% and 3.9%, correspondingly.

On June 22, 2016 Mr. Alexey Vedev, the Deputy Minister of Economic Development, commented that the Ministry projects inflation in Russia at the level of 5.9-6.0% in 2016.[145]

On May 6, 2016 the Ministry published Scenarios and Key Indicators of Forecast of Social and Economic Development of the Russian Federation and Maximum Limits of Prices (Tariffs) for Services of Infrastructure Sector's Companies for 2017, 2018 and 2019[146] (including Appendices[147]). Together with key parameters of baseline and conservative scenarios, the Ministry also disclosed parameters of so-called “target scenario”, which assumes reaching stable economic growth with rates not below the world average, reaching inflation rates of 4% per annum by 2017 and productivity growth by 5% in the medium term. In order to execute the scenario, the Ministry proposes “changing of orientation of economy to investment model while restraining growth of consumption and social obligations of the state and the business in the first years of the period of forecasting”. “Decrease of inflation rates to 4% by 2017 assumes substantial restrain of internal demand and primarily demand from the side of households”.

The target scenario assumes the average annual Urals crude oil price to stay at USD 40 per barrel for all period of forecasting (2016-2019). The inflation rates are expected to be at 6.5% in 2016 with further decrease to 4.0% for the period of 2017-2019.

On April 29, 2016 the Ministry released approved Russian CPI growth projections until 2019.[148]


Ministry of Economic Development: Russian CPI Growth Projections for 2016-2019 (April 2016, baseline scenario)


Source: TASS.

On April 22, 2016 Mr. Alexey Ulyukaev, the Minister of Economic Development, provided inflation projections for 2017-2019 under the baseline scenario of the Ministry’s macroeconomic forecast at 4.9%, 4.5% and 4.0%, correspondingly.[149]

On April 21, 2016 there took place a presentation of the Ministry’s macroeconomic projections for 2016-2019 to the Russian Government.[150] Referring to the announced baseline scenario, the inflation in Russia is projected at 6.5% in 2016 (7.5% year average) with further decrease to the level below 5.0% in 2017 and 4.0% in 2019.[151] Under conservative scenario (crude oil price at USD 25 per barrel) the inflation is projected to be at 9.0% in 2016, 6.0% in 2017 and 5.1% in 2018-2019.[152]

On April 13, 2016 Mr. Alexey Ulyukaev commented that he expects inflation in the range of 6.5-7.0% in 2016 with further reduction to 4.5-5.0%.[153]

On March 16, 2016 Mr. Alexey Ulyukaev commented at the meeting in the State Duma that he believes the inflation rates to decrease to 7.5% for 2016 with further reduction to 5.5% by 2018.[154]

On March 3, 2016 Vedomosti newspaper disclosed a number of assumptions to be used by the Ministry in the course of preparation of revised official macroeconomic forecast for 2016-2019[155] (presumably to be released in April 2016). Among assumptions the following inflation projections have been provided:


Ministry of Economic Development of Russia: CPI Changes Projections for 2016-2019 (March 2016)


Source: Vedomosti.

On February 14, 2016 Mr. Alexey Ulyukaev, the Minister of Economic Development, commented in the interview to NTV channel that he considers inflation projection at 7.0-7.5% as of the end of 2016 as the realistic one.[156]

On February 8, 2016 Kommersant newspaper released new version of budgetary calculations of the Ministry.[157] The base scenario assumes Urals crude oil price at USD 40 per barrel in 2016 with corresponding projections of inflation in the range of 8.0-8.5% and budget deficit at 5.1%. The inflation under conservative scenario (Urals crude oil price at USD 25 per barrel) is projected in the range of 8.8-9.2% for 2016.

On February 3, 2016 Mr. Alexey Ulyukaev, the Russian Minister of Economic Development, commented to the press that even if the average annual crude oil price drops as low as USD 25 per barrel in 2016, the inflation rate for the year will not exceed 10%.[158]

On January 15, 2016 Vedomosti newspaper published summary of the new macroeconomic forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development.[159] Referring to base scenario of the forecast, the inflation in Russia is projected to hit 8.5% in 2016.

On December 23, 2015 Mr. Alexey Ulyukaev, Russian Minister of Economic Development, confirmed that he still expects inflation rates in Russia to be at the level of 13% in 2015.[160]

On December 16, 2015 Mr. Ulyukaev commented that he expects inflation rates for 2015 to be closer to 13%.[161]

On December 9, 2015 Mr. Alexey Ulyukaev commented that the Ministry’s current inflation projections for 2015 and 2016 are 12.5% and 6.4%, correspondingly.[162]

On December 7, 2015 Mr. Alexey Ulyukaev announced his inflation forecast for 2015 at 12.4-12.5% in the interview to Russia 24 TV Channel.[163]

On November 26, 2015 Mr. Alexey Vedev, Deputy Minister of Economic Development, announced that the Ministry projects inflation at 12.6-12.7% in 2015 and 6.4-6.9% in 2016.[164]

On November 10, 2015 Mr. Alexey Ulyukaev, the Russian Minister of Economic Development, commented that in case the weekly inflation rates remain unchanged (0.2%), the inflation for 2015 can reach 12.7-12.8%.[165]

On October 7, 2015 it was announced that the Ministry revised inflation forecast for 2016.[166] According to new forecast, the inflation is projected at 6.4% in 2016 (previous forecast: 6.8%), 6.0% in 2017 and 5.1% in 2018.


Ministry of Economic Development of Russia: CPI Changes Projections for 2015-2018 (October 2015)


Source: Kommersant.

On October 2, 2015 Mr. Alexey Ulyukaev, the Russian Minister of Economic Development, commented to the press that the Ministry expects inflation rates at 12.2% in 2015 with further decrease to 6.8% in 2016.[167]

On September 18, 2015 Mr. Alexey Ulyukaev confirmed that the inflation in Russia is not likely to exceed 13% in 2015.[168]

On September 16, 2015 Mr. Alexey Ulyukaev commented to the press that the inflation in 2015 may exceed earlier announced forecast of around 12% pa and assumed that inflation projections made by Central bank (12-13% for 2015) are reasonable.[169]

On September 8, 2015 Mr. Alexey Ulyukaev, the Minister of Economic Development, announced the correction of the Ministry’s forecast of 2015 inflation rate to 11.9% (+0.5% as compared to forecast made in August 2015).[170] His projection of 2016 inflation rate was stated at 7%. He also expected September 2015 inflation to be lower than 0.7%.



Ministry of Finance of Russia



On September 15, 2017, Mr. Anton Siluanov, the Russian Ministry of Finance, commented to the press that the inflation rates are likely to stay at 3.2% by the year end.[171]

On July 11, 2017, the Ministry of Finance released the draft of “Key Directions of the Budgetary, Tax, Customs and Tariff Policy for 2018 and the Planning Period of 2019 and 2020”.[172] The Ministry’s macroeconomic projections assume 4.0% CPI growth throughout 2017-2020.

On April 11, 2017 Mr. Anton Siluanov, the Russian Minister of Finance, indicated the Ministry’s inflation projection for 2017 at 4.0% or below.[173]

On December 22, 2016 Mr. Vladimir Kolychev, the Director of Department of the Long-Term Strategic Planning of the Ministry of Finance, commented to the press that he expects the inflation rates for 2016 in the range of 5.4%-5.5% with further decrease to 4.0% in 2017.[174]

On October 28, 2016 the Russian Government delivered the draft law “On the Federal Budget for 2017 and the Planning Period of 2018 and 2019” to the State Duma. The package of provided documents comprised comparison of scenarios of social and economic developments of Russia for 2017-2019.[175] The following 3 scenarios were presented:

CPI Growth Projections of the Russian Government for 2016-2019 as of October 28, 2016

-20152016201720182019
Urals crude oil price, USD per barrel-----
Baseline scenario51.241404040
Baseline+ scenario51.241485255
Target scenario51.241485255
CPI growth, year end-----
Baseline scenario12.95.84.04.04.0
Baseline+ scenario12.95.84.54.34.1
Target scenario12.95.84.33.93.9
CPI growth, year average-----
Baseline scenario15.57.14.74.04.0
Baseline+ scenario15.57.15.04.44.2
Target scenario15.57.14.94.23.9

Source: the State Duma of the Russian Federation.[176]

On October 12, 2016 the Ministry of Finance provided the draft of the Federal Law “On the Federal Budget for 2017 and the Planning Period of 2018 and 2019” for public discussion (anti-corruption assessment).[177] The draft assumes inflation at 4.0% over 2017-2019.

On September 14, 2016 Mr. Maxim Oreshkin, the Deputy Minister of Finance, announced that the Ministry expects year-end inflation at 5.7% in 2016.[178]

On September 5, 2016 the Ministry of Finance provided the budgetary revenues projections under the baseline scenario[179] assuming 5.8% CPI growth in 2016 further decreasing to 4.9% in 2017, 4.4% in 2018 and 4.1% in 2019. The average annual crude oil price is expected at USD 41 per barrel in 2016 and USD 40 per barrel in 2017-2019.

On June 21, 2016 Mr. Anton Siluanov, the Russian Minister of Finance, confirmed the Ministry’s inflation projection for 2016 at the level not exceeding 6.0%.[180]

On June 9, 2016 Mr. Maxim Oreshkin, the Deputy Minister of Finance, commented that in case the Urals crude oil price stays above USD 50 per barrel until the year end, the inflation in Russia may be as low as 5.5% in 2016.[181] He also confirmed the Ministry’s previous inflation projection for 2016 (below 6%).

On April 18, 2016 Mr. Maxim Oreshkin, the Deputy Russian Minister of Finance, commented to the press that in case the crude oil price stays at the present level, he expect the year-end inflation to be at 6.0% or below.[182]

On February 19, 2016 Mr. Maxim Oreshkin, the Deputy Minister of Finance, commented that he expects inflation to reach 7.5-8.0% for 2016 in case the crude oil price stays at existing level throughout the year.[183]

On February 15, 2016 Vedomosti newspaper published key indicators of the Ministry’s internal projections on economic developments of Russia until 2030.[184] The conservative (inertial) scenario assumes that no significant reforms are implemented, and there are no substantial changes as it comes to the structure of the budget. Under this scenario the Russian economy will enter long-term stagnation, while it still will be possible to maintain reasonable inflation rates. The year-end inflation is projected to decrease to 6.4% in 2016 and 4% in 2017 and stay at 4% in 2018-2020. The average annual RUR/USD rate is expected to stay in the range of 68.13-77.17 in 2016-2030.


Ministry of Finance: Inflation Projections until 2020 (February 2016)


Source: Vedomosti.

On December 30, 2015 Mr. Anton Siluanov, the Russian Minister of Finance, commented to the press that he expects inflation rates to drop to 6-7% in 2016 as compared to more than 13% in 2015.[185]

On November 5, 2015 Mr. Maxim Oreshkin, the Deputy Minister of Finance, announced the Ministry’s inflation forecast for 2015 at 12.4%.[186] He also commented that in case of retaining the current oil prices the Ministry expects inflation rates reduction to 5-6% by the end of 2016.

On September 23, 2015 Mr. Anton Siluanov announced at the State Duma that he forecasts inflation for 2016 to be in the range of 6-7%.[187]

On September 18, 2015 Mr. Anton Siluanov, the Minister of Finance, announced at the State Duma meeting that the Ministry projects inflation at the level of 12.2% in 2015.[188]



Central Bank of Russia



On September 15, 2017, the draft of Monetary Policy Guidelines for 2018-2020 was released by the Central Bank.[189] The document features the Russian CPI growth projections until 2020 under the baseline and alternative scenarios.

The Russian CPI Growth Projections of the Russian Central Bank (September 2017)

IndicatorUnit2017201820192020
BaseBaseAlt.BaseAlt.BaseAlt.
Urals crude oil priceUSD per barrel50445642594260
CPI growth (year end)%3.5-3.84.04.04.04.04.04.0
CPI growth (year average)%4.04.04.04.04.04.04.0

On September 5, 2017, the Russian Central Bank confirmed CPI growth projection for 2017 to be near the inflation target of 4.0%.[190] The statement followed the release of CPI estimates for August 2017 assuming 0.5% month-over-month contraction. Despite the registered deflation, the Central Bank considers it to have a temporary nature.

On July 28, 2017, the Russian Central Bank retained the base rate at 9.00% and confirmed its inflation target for 2017 at 4.0%.[191]

On July 12, 2017, the Russian Central Bank published Talking Trends bulletin with the Russian CPI growth projection for 2017 confirmed at 4.0%.[192]

On June 9, 2017 the Russian Central Bank released the Comments on Dynamics of Consumer Prices for June 2017[193], where the Russian inflation projection for 2017 was confirmed at 4.0%.

On April 28, 2017 the Russian Central Bank reduced the base rate to 9.25% p.a. (9.75% previously). In the appropriate press-release the Bank confirmed its inflation target for 2017-2019 at 4.0%.[194]

On March 24, 2017 the Russian Central Bank released the monthly report on the monetary policy confirming the previously indicated Russian CPI growth projections for 2017-2019 at the target level of 4.0%.[195]

On December 22, 2016 the bank released statistical appendix to the Report on Monetary Policy featuring inflation projections for 2016-2019 under 3 scenarios.[196] The projection for 2016, which is common for all scenarios, is indicated in the range of 5.4-5.8% under the average annual Urals crude oil price at USD 41 per barrel. The projections for 2017-2019 under different scenarios are as follows (December to December of previous year):

On December 16, 2016 the Russian Central Bank retained the base rate at 10.0%, and at the press-conference Ms. Elvira Nabiullina indicated the Russian CPI growth projection for 2016 in the range of 5.4-5.8%.[197] Besides this, in the appropriate press release the bank confirmed its expectations of inflation rates decreasing to 4% per annum by the end of 2017.[198]

On November 14, 2016 the new issue of What Trends Say bulletin was released by the Central Bank with the inflation projections for 2016 kept at 5.5-6.0%.[199] The Bank commented that in case there are no price shocks the actual inflation rates are likely to be closer to lower bound of indicated range.

On October 12, 2016 the Russian Central Bank provided comments on dynamics of consumer prices[200] confirming previous inflation projection for 2016 at 5.5-6.0% and its 4.0% inflation target for 2017.

On September 28, 2016 the Central Bank released Monetary Policy Guidelines for 2017-2019[201] featuring two scenarios of the Russian economy developments. Both scenarios assume the Russian CPI to grow by 5.5-6.0% in 2016 under the average annual Urals crude oil price of USD 40 per barrel.

On September 16, 2016 the Russian Central Bank decreased the base rate to 10.0% (10.5% previously). In the appropriate press release the bank confirmed its inflation target for 2017 at the level of 4.0% under baseline scenario.[202] The Bank also released the report on the monetary policy, where the CPI growth in 2016 was projected at 5.5-6.0%.[203] Referring to the report, under the risk scenario assuming deteriorating crude oil prices, the inflation in Russia will be at the level exceeding 5.0% in 2017.

On September 1, 2016 the new issue of What Trends Say bulletin for August 2016 was released with comments on inflation rates not decreasing fast enough in order to reach the target level of 4% by the end of 2017.[204] It was also noticed that the inflation trajectory strayed from the course allowing to reach 5.5% target for 2016 (middle of the official projection in the range of 5.0%-6.0%).

On August 15, 2016 the Central Bank released Dynamics of Consumer Prices bulletin[205], where it confirmed previous projection of CPI growth for 2016 at 5.0-6.0% that assumes further deterioration of inflation rates until the year end. The bank also indicated inflation risks due to increased level of inflation expectations and the lack of noticeable decrease in seasonally adjusted inflation dynamics over the recent months.

On August 8, 2016 the Russian Central Bank issued What Trends Say bulletin for July 2016 with comments on inflation dynamics.[206] Referring to the document, there are increasing threats for reaching target inflation rates of 5.5% for 2016 and 4.0% in 2017 due to rather steep trajectory of monthly inflation rates deterioration over the recent months.

On June 29, 2016 the Russian Central Bank released the new issue of What Trends Say bulletin, where the Russian inflation was projected at 5.5% in 2016 and 4.0% in 2017.[207]

On June 23, 2016 the Central Bank issued Dynamics of Consumer Prices bulletin for June 2016, where it confirmed its inflation forecast for 2016 at the level of 5.0-6.0%.[208]

On June 10, 2016 the Russian Central Bank announced decreasing the base rate from 11.0% to 10.5%.[209] It also corrected its official inflation projection for 2016 from 6.0-7.0% to 5.0-6.0% still targeting to reach 4% inflation rate by the end of 2017.

On March 18, 2016 the Bank released Monetary Policy Report featuring updated inflation projections for 2016-2018.[210] According to baseline scenario the CPI growth is expected at 6.0-7.0% in 2016. The Bank also provided inflation rates forecast for 2017-2018 at 4% corresponding to its inflation targets for the period.

On December 11, 2015 Ms. Elvira Nabiullina commented in the course of press-conference that under stress scenario with oil prices at USD 35 per barrel the inflation rates in Russia can reach 7% in 2016.[211]

On December 11, 2015 the Central Bank released its Report on Monetary Policy with revised inflation forecast for 2016-2018.[212] Under the base scenario, by the end of 2016 the inflation rates are expected to decrease to 5.5-6.5%, while by the end of 2017 they shall reach targeted 4% annual rate and will remain at that level in 2018. In the report the Central Bank of Russia has also corrected its inflation projection for 2015 from 12-13% to 12.8-13.0%. Commenting on the report, Ms. Nabiullina announced that projected inflation rates for January 2016 are below 10% (on annual basis), while projected inflation rates for 1 quarter of 2016 are at 7.5-8.0%.[213]

On November 30, 2015 Mr. Sergei Moiseev, the Director of the Department of Financial Stability of the Central Bank, commented that the factual inflation is likely to approach 6% in 2016 and reach 4% in the mid-term.[214]

On October 29, 2015 the Central Bank released the first issue of the regular report on economics and the markets called “What Trends Say”.[215] The inflation for 2015 is projected at 12.7% in the report.

On September 11, 2015 the Central Bank released draft version of Key Directions of Integrated State Monetary Policy for 2016 and 2017-2018[216]. Referring to the document, inflation in 2015 is projected at the level of 12-13%. According to the statement of Ms. Elvira Nabiullina, the inflation in September 2016 will be at 7% on annual basis.[217] In 2017 the Bank will be targeting inflation at 4% p.a.



Accounts Chamber of the Russian Federation



On December 15, 2015 Ms. Tatiana Golikova, the Head of Accounts Chamber, commented that inflation in Russia in 2015 can reach 12.8-13.0%.[218] She also commented that it will hardly be possible to decrease inflation rates to 6.4% in 2016 as the Russian Government plans.



Standard & Poor’s



On March 17, 2017 S&P changed the sovereign credit rating outlook for Russia from stable to positive.[219] In the corresponding press release the Russian CPI growth projection for 2017 was indicated at 4.5%, while the annual projections for 2018-2020 were indicated at 4.0% (year average).

On September 16, 2016 S&P changed the sovereign credit rating outlook for Russia to stable providing also CPI growth projections for 2016-2019 at 7.2%, 5.5%, 5.1% and 5.1%, correspondingly.[220]

On March 18, 2016 S&P affirmed its BB+ sovereign rating for Russia also confirming existing CPI growth projections for 2016 and later on.[221]

On February 17, 2016 S&P confirmed its credit ratings on Russia and also provided its projections on the key macroeconomic indicators in 2016-2019.[222] Referring to forecasts, the Russian CPI is expected to reach 8.5% in 2016 (year average) with further decrease to the level of 5.7% in 2017-2019.



Moody’s



On August 30, 2017, Moody’s released the updated Global Macroeconomic Outlook featuring the Russian CPI growth projections for 2017-2018 that were indicated at 3.8% and 4.0%, respectively.[223]

On April 22, 2016 Moody’s confirmed the sovereign rating of Russia at Ba1 and changed the outlook from stable to negative.[224] In the dedicated press-release Moody’s provided the revised inflation projections for 2016-2017 at 7.3% and 5.0%, correspondingly.



Analytical Credit Rating Agency (ACRA)



On March 28, 2017 ACRA provided the updated macroeconomic projections for Russia until 2021.[225] Referring to the forecast, the Russian CPI is expected to grow by 4.3% in 2017, 4.0% in 2018, 4.5% in 2019, 4.3% in 2020 and 4.0% in 2021.

On November 24, 2016 Ms. Yekaterina Trofimova, ACRA’s CEO, provided the agency’s inflation projection for 2016 at 6.2%.[226]

On September 12, 2016 ACRA released updated macroeconomic forecast until 2020.[227] Referring to the projections, the Russian Central Bank is not expected to reach its inflation targets, and Russian CPI growth is projected at 6.6% in 2016, 6.0% in 2017 slowing down to the level below 5% only by 2020 (5.2% in 2018 and 5.1% in 2019).

On September 6, 2016 Ms. Yekaterina Trofimova, the head of ACRA, in her interview to Russia24 TV channel commented that ACRA expects 6.6% inflation in 2016.[228]

On March 21, 2016 Kommersant newspaper announced the first Russian macroeconomic forecast for 2016-2020 to be issued by ACRA, the newly established Russian credit rating agency, over the coming week (March 21-27, 2016).[229] Referring to the cited key indicators of forecast, ACRA expects the CPI growth at 7.2% in 2016 with its gradual reduction to 5.0% by 2020.



Expert Surveys of HSE



On August 15, 2017, the Centre of Development of HSE released Comments on the State and the Business for July 27-August 14[230] featuring the consensus projections of the Russian macroeconomic indicators based on the poll of 24 experts (the data were collected over July 31-August 8, 2017). According to the poll results, the Russian CPI growth is projected to vary in a range of 3.8-4.2% until 2023.

Results of Experts’ Poll by the Centre of Development of HSE (August 2017)

IndicatorUnit2017201820192020202120222023
CPI growth%4.24.24.24.24.13.93.8
Average annual Urals crude oil priceUSD per barrel51535356545657
RUR/USD rateRatio60.361.563.263.464.466.666.9

Source: Comments on the State and Business, July 27-August 14, 2017.

On May 18, 2017 the Centre of Development of Higher School of Economics (HSE) published Comments on the State and Business (April 27 – May 17, 2017) featuring the results of new experts’ poll on the Russian economy developments over 2017-2023.[231] Referring to the poll results, the Russian CPI growth is expected to be close to 4.0% p.a. for the indicated period.

Results of Experts’ Poll by the Centre of Development of HSE (May 2017)

IndicatorUnit2017201820192020202120222023
CPI growth%4.34.24.34.24.13.93.8
Average annual Urals crude oil priceUSD per barrel51545658596061
RUR/USD rateRatio60.761.562.563.063.964.364.9

Source: Comments on the State and Business, April 27-May 17, 2017.

On February 15, 2017 the Centre of Development of HSE released the results of the new poll on the Russian economy developments for 2017-2023.[232] According to the poll results, the Russian CPI growth rates are projected to decrease gradually from 4.7% in 2017 to 3.9% in 2023 (4.4% in 2018, 4.3% in 2019-2020, 4.1% in 2021 and 4.0% in 2022).

On November 28, 2016 HSE (Higher School of Economics) released the results of its new poll on the Russian economy developments.[233] The consensus projections of the Russian CPI growth were indicated at 6.0% for 2016 and assume further gradual decrease until 4.2% in 2022 (5.0% for 2017, 4.8% for 2018, 4.6% for 2019, 4.6% for 2020 and 4.5% for 2021).

On August 18, 2016 the results of quarterly experts’ poll on the Russian economy developments for 2016-2022 were released by the Centre of Development of HSE in the new issue of Comments on the State and Business.[234] In accordance with the consensus forecast, the Russian CPI is expected to grow by 6.5% in 2016 with further gradual deterioration to 4.4% by 2022.


HSE Poll: Projected CPI Growth for 2016-2022, December to December of Previous Year (August 2016)


Source: Higher School of Economics.

On May 20, 2016 in the Comments on the State and the Business publication for the period of April 29-May 19 the Centre provided the results of new poll on the Russian economy developments prospects for 2016-2022 (27 experts).[235] Referring to the poll results, the inflation rates in Russia are projected at 7.3% in 2016 with further drop to 5.7% in 2017 and slow decrease over 2018-2022 following inflation targeting policy of the state.


HSE Poll: Consensus Russian CPI Growth Forecast for 2016-2022 (May 2016)


Source: Higher School of Economics.

On February 26, 2016 Centre for Development of HSE released new issue of Comments on the State and Business[236] featuring updated consensus inflation forecast.


HSE Survey: Consensus Russian CPI Growth Forecast for 2016-2022 (February 2016)


Source: Higher School of Economics.

On December 15, 2015 the Centre for Development of HSE published revised version of experts’ consensus projections of key Russian macroeconomics indicators[237] featuring the following inflation forecasts until 2021:


HSE Survey: Consensus Russian CPI Changes Forecast for 2015-2021 (December 2015)


Source: Higher School of Economics.

In the beginning of August, 2015 Centre for Development of Higher School of Economics carried out a quarterly survey on the prospects of the Russian economy with participation of 23 experts representing mostly banks, investment banks, consulting companies and research institutions.[238] The survey covered the period of 2015-2016, as well as developments until 2021. The consensus forecast for CPI rates (December to December of previous year) was as follows:


HSE Survey: Consensus Russian CPI Changes Forecast for 2015-2021 (August 2015)


Source: Higher School of Economics.



Reuters Polls (consensus forecasts)



On October 4, 2017, Reuters disclosed the results of the new poll on the Russian economy developments featuring projections of the major macroeconomic indicators (presumably year end projections for annual data).[239]

Results of the Reuters poll on CPI growth, % (October 2017)

-AverageMedianMinMax
September, m/m0.00.1-0.20.2
September, y/y3.23.12.93.8
2017 y/y3.63.71.54.1
2018 y/y3.84.01.54.2
2019 y/y4.04.03.14.8
3Q 2017, y/y3.33.23.13.8
4Q 2017, y/y3.53.52.94.0
1Q 2018, y/y3.73.73.24.1
2Q 2018, y/y3.53.63.04.2
3Q 2018, y/y3.93.93.14.4
4Q 2018, y/y3.94.03.04.2
1Q 2019, y/y3.73.92.84.2

On September 4, 2017, Reuters released the results of new poll on the Russian economy developments.[240] The consensus CPI growth projections for 2017-2018 were revised to 4.1% and 4.0%, respectively.

On August 1, 2017, Vedomosti newspaper cited results of the new Reuters poll (19 analysts) with the consensus Russian inflation projection for 2017 revised to 4.2% (4.1% under the previous poll).[241]

On July 3, 2017, Reuters published the results of the new poll with the consensus Russian CPI growth projection for 2017-2018 staying at 4.1%.[242]

On June 1, 2017 Reuters released the results of its new poll on the Russian economy developments.[243] The Russian CPI growth consensus projections were corrected to 4.1% for 2017 and 2018.

On April 5, 2017 Reuters provided the results of the monthly poll featuring the updated Russian CPI growth projection for 2017 at 4.2% (4.3% under previous poll) and 2018 projection at 4.0% (4.2% under previous poll).[244]

On March 2, 2017 Reuters released the results of its new poll on the Russian economy developments.[245] The consensus CPI growth projection for 2017 has not been changed and retained at 4.3%, while 2018 projection was corrected to 4.1% (4.3% under previous projection).

On February 1, 2017 Reuters published results of the new poll with the consensus CPI growth projection for 2017 corrected to 4.3% (4.9% under previous forecast).[246]

On January 13, 2017 Reuters released results of its new poll on the Russian economy developments featuring the updated CPI growth projection for 2017.[247] The consensus CPI forecast for 2017 assumes 4.9% growth (no change as compared to previous consensus projection). The inflation estimate for 2016 was corrected from 5.8% to 5.7%.

On December 5, 2016 the Ministry of Economic Development of Russian released weekly economic monitoring report[248] featuring Reuters’ consensus Russian CPI growth projections for 2016-2017 at 5.8% and 4.9%, correspondingly.

On November 1, 2016 the results of new poll on the Russian economy developments were released by Reuters (17 participants).[249] The updated median of the Russian inflation projections for 2016 was retained at 6.1% (presumably December to December), while the median for 2017 also has not changed and was indicated at 5.1%.

On October 4, 2016 Reuters released the poll results (17 experts) on inflation with the median CPI growth projection at 6.1%.[250] The consensus inflation forecast for 2017 is 5.1%.

On September 1, 2016 Reuters released results of its new poll on the Russian economy development prospects (15 experts) with consensus CPI growth projection for 2016 revised to 7.1% (7.2% previously).[251]

On August 1, 2016 the mass media cited results of the Reuters Poll on the Russian economy developments for July 2016.[252] The Russian inflation projection for 2016 of 12 experts participating in the poll was revised to 7.2% (6.5% under projection made in the end of June).

On June 6, 2016 the results of the new Reuters Poll were published with the consensus Russian inflation projection for 2016 staying unchanged at around 7.0%.[253]

On May 11, 2016 Reuters released the results of the new poll on the Russian economy developments.[254] The projections of inflation rates for 2016 have been slightly lowered as compared to previous forecast (from 7.4% to 7.1%).

On April 13, 2016 1Prime news agency published the results of Reuters’ poll for March 2016.[255] According to the poll results, the medians for CPI growth projections for 2016 and 2017 are 7.4% and 6.2%, correspondingly.[256]

On March 3, 2016 the results of the monthly Reuters poll were published[257], including inflation projections. The consensus inflation forecast of approached 16 experts was at 7.9% for 2016 and 6.1% for 2017.

On February 3, 2016 Reuters released results of new poll with consensus CPI growth projection for 2016 indicated at the level of 8.6%, while appropriate forecasts vary in the range of 6.7-10.8%.[258]

On December 2, 2015 Reuters provided data on November poll with consensus inflation forecast at 13.0% for 2015.[259]

On October 8, 2015 the result of September 2015 Reuters Poll were released.[260] According to the new forecast, the year-end CPI change in Russia is expected to hit 12.5% in 2015 primarily due to effects of local currency deterioration in August 2015 (11.6% in previous forecast).



Bloomberg Poll (consensus forecasts)



On September 6, 2017, the Russian Central Bank released September issue of Talking Trends bulletin featuring the results of the recent Bloomberg poll.[261] The consensus inflation projections for 2017-2018 were indicated at 3.9% and 4.0%, respectively.

On June 6, 2017 the Russian Central Bank released the Talking Trends bulletin for May 2017 featuring the consensus inflation projections by Bloomberg indicated at 4.0% for both 2017 and 2018.[262] The projections’ spread for 2017 was indicated at 3.6%-5.0%.

On April 12, 2017 the Russian Central Bank published the new issue of What Do Trends Say Bulletin featuring the Bloomberg poll results on inflation in Russia (4.2% for 2017).[263]

On November 14, 2016 the new issue of What Trends Say bulletin was released by the Central Bank citing the results of October Bloomberg poll on inflation rates in Russia.[264] The consensus projection for 2016 was improved to 5.7% (6.0% previously), while the year-end projection for 2017 was improved from 5.1% to 4.6%.

On September 1, 2016 the new issue of What Trends Say bulletin for August 2016 was released by the Russian Central Bank citing the results of the recent Bloomberg poll with CPI growth expected at 5.2% in 2017 (spread from 4.0% to 6.7%, previous consensus projection was at 4.7%).[265] The inflation projection for 2016 remained unchanged at 6.3%.

On July 27, 2016 Bloomberg finalized the poll of financial analysts on the Russian inflation rates for 2016 as reported by What Trends Say bulletin of the Russian Central Bank.[266] According to the poll results, the analysts expect the inflation rates to reach 6.3% as of the year end (6.5% inflation was projected beforehand). The inflation projections for 2017 remained at 4.7%.

On December 9, 2015 Bloomberg commented that in accordance with its economists’ survey the average inflation forecast for 2016 is 7.9%.[267]



The Economist Polls



On October 5, 2017, The Economist released the results of the new poll revising consensus CPI growth projections for Russia for both 2017 and 2018 to 4.0% (year average).[268]

On September 7, 2017, the Economist released the results of new poll featuring consensus CPI growth projections for Russia.[269] The Russian CPI growth projection for both 2017 and 2018 was revised to 4.2% (4.1% previously, year average).

On August 10, 2017, The Economist released results of its new poll with the consensus Russian CPI growth projection for 2017 revised to 4.1% (4.2% previously) and 2018 projection staying at 4.1%.[270]

On July 7, 2017, The Economist published the results of July poll.[271] The consensus Russian CPI growth projection for 2017 was retained at 4.2%, while 2018 projection changed to 4.1% (4.2% previously, year average projections).

On June 8, 2017 The Economist released the results of its June poll of forecasters (registration at the web site or access to paper version is required for viewing).[272] The Russian consensus CPI growth projection for 2017 was corrected to 4.2% (4.3% under previous poll results), while 2018 projection stayed at 4.2% (year average projections).

On May 6, 2017 The Economist published the results of its May poll.[273] The consensus projection on the Russian CPI growth for 2017 and 2018 was revised to 4.3% and 4.2%, correspondingly (year average).

On April 8, 2017 The Economist released the results of its April poll[274] (registration at the web site or access to paper version is required for viewing). Referring to poll results, the consensus projection of the Russian CPI growth (year average) was revised to 4.5% for 2017 (4.7% previously) and 4.4% for 2018 (4.3% previously).

On March 9, 2017 The Economist released the results of its March poll.[275] The consensus projection of the Russian CPI growth for 2017 was revised to 4.7% and 2018 projection was indicated at 4.3% (year average).

On February 9, 2017 The Economist published the results of February poll.[276] The consensus Russian CPI growth estimate for 2016 and projection for 2017 have been revised to 7.1% and 4.9%, correspondingly (year average).

On January 14, 2017 The Economist released results of its January poll.[277] The consensus CPI growth projection for Russia was retained at 7.0% for 2016, while 2017 projection was revised to 5.0% (year average).

On December 10, 2016 The Economist published the results of its new poll.[278] The consensus CPI growth projections for Russia were retained at 7.0% for 2016 and 5.2% for 2017 (year average).

On November 12, 2016 the results of the November poll of The Economist was released.[279] The consensus year-average CPI growth projections were indicated at 7.0% for 2016 (7.3% previously) and 5.2% for 2017 (5.5% previously).



RosBusinessConsulting Polls



On December 28, 2015 RBC published the results of its poll on the Russian economy development in 2016.[280] The poll’s consensus inflation forecast for 2016 is 8.1%.



Vedomosti Newspaper Polls



On December 24, 2015 Vedomosti newspaper published the results of its poll (20 experts) on the Russian economy prospects in 2016.[281] Referring to the poll results, the median of inflation projections for 2016 is 6.9%, while maximum projection is at 10.1% and minimum projection is at 6.6%.

Poll participants: Alfa Bank, BCS Financial Group, PF Capital, Renaissance Capital, RosBank, UralSib, Centre for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting, Centre for Development of Higher School of Economics, Centre of Macroeconomic Research of Sberbank, Centre of Economic Forecasting of GaspromBank, Economic Expert Group, Bank of America - Merrill Lynch, BNP Paribas, Capital Economics, Citigroup, Credit Suisse, ING, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley and Royal Bank of Scotland.



Centre for Development of Higher School of Economics



On May 15, 2017 the Centre released its mid-term forecast on the Russian economy development until 2020.[282] According to the baseline scenario of the forecast, the Russian CPI is expected to grow by 4.0% throughout 2017-2019 decreasing to 3.9% in 2020 (assumed average annual Urals crude oil price: USD 50 per barrel).

On March 14, 2017 the Centre issued Comments of the State and Business (March 3–13, 2017) featuring the current Russian CPI growth projection corrected to 4.0%.[283] The centre also commented that there is still a probability that the inflation reaches 4.5% as of the year end.

On October 3, 2016 the Centre revised its macroeconomic projections for 2016-2020[284] with the Russian CPI growth expected at 5.5% in 2016, 4.1% in 2017, 4.0% in 2018 and 3.8% in 2019-2020.

On April 14, 2016 HSE released new issue of Comments on the State and Business (April 4 – April 14, 2016), where the Centre’s inflation projection for 2016 was revised to 6.5% and further inflation rates (2017 and later on) projections were indicated at 4.0-5.0%.[285]

On March 30, 2016 the Centre presented two scenarios of the Russian economy development until 2016 with corresponding inflation projections.[286]


Centre for Development of HSE: Inflation Projections until 2020 (“Scenario 35”)


Source: Higher School of Economics.


Centre for Development of HSE: Inflation Projections until 2020 (“Scenario 50”)


Source: Higher School of Economics.

On September 3, 2015 the Centre released its regular report called “Comments on the State and Business” (#100), where the inflation rates for 2015 are projected in the range of 12.8%-15.2% (December to December of previous year).[287] The spread is substantial due to high volatility in the oil market with oil prices dynamics being the major factor for Russian CPI developments (via influence on local currency rates).

In June 2015 Centre for Development of Higher School of Economics released the new version of the Russian mid-term economic forecast.[288] The Centre considered the negative scenario with Urals oil prices at the level of USD 50 per barrel for 2015-2018 to be the most probable one. Referring to the forecast, the inflation rates will be gradually decreasing over this period.


Centre for Development of Higher School of Economics: Russian CPI Changes Forecast for 2015-2018 (June-July 2015)


Source: Higher School of Economics.



Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy



On July 28, 2017 Gaidar Institute in cooperation with RANEPA (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) and Russian Foreign Trade Academy presented the update of the macroeconomic forecast for Russia for 2017-2019 featuring inertial and conservative scenarios.[289]

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy: Russian CPI Growth Projections for 2017-2019, Inertial Scenario (July 2017)

-1Q 2017
Actual
2Q 2017
Actual / Forecast
3Q 2017
Forecast
4Q 2017
Forecast
2017 total2018 total2019 total
Urals crude oil price, USD per barrel52.048.948.750.550.055.055.0
CPI, % to previous period101.0101.1100.5101.4104.1103.9103.6
RUR/USD average exchange rate59.257.159.058.458.459.458.8

Source: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy.

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy: Russian CPI Growth Projections for 2017-2019, Conservative Scenario (July 2017)

-1Q 2017
Actual
2Q 2017
Actual / Forecast
3Q 2017
Forecast
4Q 2017
Forecast
2017 total2018 total2019 total
Urals crude oil price, USD per barrel52.048.940.641.045.640.841.6
CPI, % to previous period101.0101.1100.5101.4104.1104.1104.0
RUR/USD average exchange rate59.257.161.460.759.666.564.8

Source: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy.

On April 17, 2017 Gaidar Institute in cooperation with RANEPA (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) and Russian Foreign Trade Academy presented the update of the macroeconomic forecast for Russia for 2017-2018 featuring baseline scenario and scenario with depreciating rouble.[290] Both scenarios assume that the annual average Urals crude oil price will be at USD 50 per barrel in 2017 and USD 60 per barrel in 2018.

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy: Russian CPI Growth Projections for 2017-2018, Baseline Scenario (April 2017)

-1Q 2016
(actual)
2Q 2016
(actual)
3Q 2016
(actual)
4Q 2016
(actual)
2016 total
(actual)
1Q 20172Q 20173Q 20174Q 20172017 total2018 total
Urals crude oil price, USD per barrel32.644.446.148.943.053.047.050.050.050.060.0
CPI, % to previous period102.1101.2100.7101.3105.4101.1100.9101.0101.0104.1103.7
RUR/USD average exchange rate74.665.964.663.167.059.258.459.359.959.257.7

Source: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy.

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy: Russian CPI Growth Projections for 2017-2018, Scenario with Depreciating Rouble (April 2017)

-1Q 2016
(actual)
2Q 2016
(actual)
3Q 2016
(actual)
4Q 2016
(actual)
2016 total
(actual)
1Q 20172Q 20173Q 20174Q 20172017 total2018 total
Urals crude oil price, USD per barrel32.644.446.148.943.053.047.050.050.050.060.0
CPI, % to previous period102.1101.2100.7101.3105.4101.1101.7101.3101.7106.1105.7
RUR/USD average exchange rate74.665.964.663.167.059.265.065.070.064.870.0

Source: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy.

On January 24, 2017 Gaidar Institute released the updated macroeconomic forecast for Russia for 2017-2018 featuring the baseline and conservative scenarios (part of Monitoring of Economic Situation in Russia[291] and the separate document[292]).

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy: Russian CPI Growth Projections for 2017-2018, Baseline Scenario (January 2017)

-1Q 2016
(actual)
2Q 2016
(actual)
3Q 2016
(actual)
4Q 2016
(actual / estimate)
2016 total
(actual / estimate)
1Q 20172Q 20173Q 20174Q 20172017 total2018 total
Urals crude oil price, USD per barrel31.943.643.948.041.950.050.050.050.050.060.0
CPI, % to previous period102.1101.2100.7101.3105.4102.6100.9100.1101.1104.6104.2
RUR/USD average exchange rate74.665.964.663.567.162.060.960.460.560.957.3

Source: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy.

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy: Russian CPI Growth Projections for 2017-2018, Conservative Scenario (January 2017)

-1Q 2016
(actual)
2Q 2016
(actual)
3Q 2016
(actual)
4Q 2016
(actual / estimate)
2016 total
(actual / estimate)
1Q 20172Q 20173Q 20174Q 20172017 total2018 total
Urals crude oil price, USD per barrel31.943.643.948.041.940.040.040.040.040.040.0
CPI, % to previous period102.1101.2100.7101.3105.4102.6101.1100.1101.1104.9104.5
RUR/USD average exchange rate74.665.964.663.567.163.465.065.065.964.866.3

Source: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy.

On October 3, 2016 Gaidar Institute issued Monitoring of Economic Situation in Russia for September 2016[293] featuring updated macroeconomic projections for 2016-2018 under the baseline and optimistic scenarios.

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy: Russian GDP Projections for 2016-2018, Baseline Scenario (September 2016)

-1Q 20162Q 20163Q 20164Q 20162016 total1Q 20172Q 20173Q 20174Q 20172017 total2018 total
Urals crude oil price, USD per barrel32.644.444.039.040.040.040.040.040.040.040.0
CPI, % to previous period102.1101.2101.1101.8106.3101.9101.1101.1101.6105.7105.1
RUR/USD average exchange rate74.665.964.665.067.565.565.365.165.465.364.9

Source: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy.

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy: Russian GDP Projections for 2016-2018, Optimistic Scenario (September 2016)

-1Q 20162Q 20163Q 20164Q 20162016 total1Q 20172Q 20173Q 20174Q 20172017 total2018 total
Urals crude oil price, USD per barrel32.644.444.047.042.050.050.050.050.050.060.0
CPI, % to previous period102.1101.2101.1101.4105.9101.8101.2101.1101.1105.3104.8
RUR/USD average exchange rate74.665.964.663.367.161.660.860.360.560.857.3

Source: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy.

On July 15, 2016 Gaidar Institute published Current Monitoring of Economic Situation in Russia in July 2016, where the Russian inflation projection for 2016 was revised to 6.5-7.0%.[294]

On June 20, 2016 Gaidar Institute released new issue of Current Monitoring of Economic Situation in Russia with revised projections of key macroeconomic indicators for 2016-2018.[295] Similar to previous forecast, the document features baseline and optimistic scenarios of the Russian economy development.

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy: Russian CPI Projections for 2016-2018, Baseline Scenario (June 2016)

-1Q 20162Q 20163Q 20164Q 20162016 total2017 total2018 total
Urals crude oil price, USD per barrel32.641.942.842.8404040
CPI, % to previous period102.1101.0102.2101.9107.3106.2105.7
RUR/USD average exchange rate74.666.065.164.867.664.163.4

Source: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy.

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy: Russian CPI Projections for 2016-2018, Optimistic Scenario (June 2016)

-1Q 20162Q 20163Q 20164Q 20162016 total2017 total2018 total
Urals crude oil price, USD per barrel32.641.952.852.8455060
CPI, % to previous period102.1101.0102.1101.6107.0105.6104.8
RUR/USD average exchange rate74.666.063.860.866.360.157.2

Source: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy.

On April 18, 2016 Gaidar Institute published April issue of Current Monitoring of Economic Situation in Russia featuring experts’ projections of key macroeconomic indicators for 2016-2017 under baseline and optimistic scenarios.[296]

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy: Russian CPI Projections for 2016-2017, Baseline Scenario (April 2016)

-1Q 20162Q 20163Q 20164Q 20162016 total2017 total
Urals crude oil price, USD per barrel323535383540
CPI, % to previous period102.1101.7101.7102.2107.9106.7
RUR/USD average exchange rate74.969.566.162.068.163.3

Source: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy.

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy: Russian CPI Projections for 2016-2017, Optimistic Scenario (April 2016)

-1Q 20162Q 20163Q 20164Q 20162016 total2017 total
Urals crude oil price, USD per barrel325555.957.15055
CPI, % to previous period102.1101.3101.1102.1106.8105.8
RUR/USD average exchange rate74.969.560.458.365.859.7

Source: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy.

On January 25, 2016 Gaidar Institute released new issue of Current Monitoring of Economic Situation in Russia with updated inflation projections for 2016-2017.[297] The forecast assumes two major scenarios depending on Urals crude oil price dynamics. Under the base scenario CPI is expected to grow by 9.5% in 2016 and by 7.0% in 2017 given the average annual Urals crude oil prices projections of USD 35 and USD 40 per barrel, correspondingly. The optimistic scenario assumes 6.2% growth in 2016 and 5.5% growth in 2017 given the average annual Urals crude oil prices at USD 50 and USD 55 per barrel, correspondingly.

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy: Russian CPI Projections for 2016-2017, Base Scenario (January 2016)

-1Q 20162Q 20163Q 20164Q 20162016 total2017 total
Urals crude oil price, USD per barrel303535403540
CPI, % to previous period103.9102.2101.1102.0109.5107.0
RUR/USD average exchange rate70.970.368.967.769.465.7

Source: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy.

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy: Russian CPI Projections for 2016-2017, Optimistic Scenario (January 2016)

-1Q 20162Q 20163Q 20164Q 20162016 total2017 total
Urals crude oil price, USD per barrel35.054.054.556.550.055.0
CPI, % to previous period103.2101.699.9101.3106.2105.5
RUR/USD average exchange rate67.967.561.561.264.660.5

Source: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy.

On September 28, 2015 Gaidar Institute presented publication on scenarios of social and economic development of the Russian Federation in 2015-2016 with 3 scenarios elaborated.[298] All scenarios assume CPI growth to be at 14% in 2015.

The pessimistic scenario projects CPI growth for 2016 at 9.2%.

Under the base scenario CPI will grow by 7.7% in 2016.


Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy: CPI Dynamics Projections in 2015-2016 (base scenario)


Source: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy (actual data are presented for 1Q and 2Q of 2015).

The optimistic scenario assumes CPI growth to be at 7.5% in 2016.



Centre for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting



On October 20, 2016 the Centre released presentation of its experts at LINK project conference dedicated to Russia's Economic Development in 2015-2016 and 2017-2019 Outlook[299] (authors: D. Belousov, E. Abramova, A. Apokin, K. Mikhaylenko). According to the presentation, the Russian CPI is expected to grow by 6.3% in 2016, 5.7% in 2017, 4.5% in 2018 and 4.2% in 2019.

On July 26, 2016 the Centre released the forecast of the key Russian macroeconomic indicators for 2016-2019 featuring optimistic and pessimistic scenarios.[300]

On April 6, 2016 the Centre presented the analytical review called “Results of 2015 and Economic Developments Forecast for the Medium Term”.[301] In the document the Centre offered two scenarios of economic development of Russia for 2016-2019 relying primarily on the Urals crude oil price dynamics:



Economic Expert Group



On June 24, 2016 the article called “Scenarios of the Russian Economy Development and Their Consideration” featuring projections of the key economic indicators for 2016 was released by Economic Expert Group.[302] Referring to the article, the Russian CPI is expected to grow by 9.0% in 2016.



Institute of National Economy Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences



On May 17, 2017 the Institute issued the updated quarterly forecast of the Russian economic indicators for 2017-2019 (#38).[303] Referring to the inertial scenario of the forecast, the Russian CPI is projected to grow by 4.2% in 2017, 4.1% in 2018 and 3.8% in 2019 under the gradually increasing crude oil price.

Institute of National Economy Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences (May 2017)

IndicatorUnit20152016201720182019
CPI growth% Dec/Dec12.95.44.24.13.8
GDP deflator%8.23.63.84.94.0
Deflator of households’ consumption%14.46.53.64.33.8
Deflator of fixed capital formation%13.96.84.64.94.5
Avg. annual Brent crude oil priceUSD per barrel5244535557

Source: Quarterly macroeconomic forecast of Institute of National Economy Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

On January 30, 2017 the institute released the quarterly forecast for 2017-2019 (forecast date: January 18, 2017).[304] Under the updated projections of inertial scenario the Russian CPI is expected to grow by 5.0% in 2017, 4.7% in 2018 and 4.1% in 2019.The CPI growth for 2016 is estimated at 5.8%.

Institute of National Economy Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences (January 2017)

IndicatorUnit20152016201720182019
CPI growth% Dec/Dec12.95.85.04.74.1
GDP deflator%7.72.44.93.72.7
Deflator of households’ consumption%14.05.13.94.94.2
Deflator of fixed capital formation%12.912.38.47.36.4

Source: Quarterly macroeconomic forecast of Institute of National Economy Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences (actual data for 2015 and estimates for 2016 are presented).

On October 23, 2016 the Institute presented updated quarterly macroeconomic forecast for 2016-2019.[305] According to the projections, under the inertial scenario the Russian CPI is expected to grow by 7.0% in 2016, 6.0% in 2017, 5.2% in 2018 and 4.1% in 2019.

Institute of National Economy Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences (October 2016)

IndicatorUnit20152016201720182019
CPI growth% Dec/Dec12.97.06.05.24.1
GDP deflator%7.75.37.27.15.9
Deflator of fixed capital formation%14.911.99.58.47.2

Source: Quarterly macroeconomic forecast of Institute of National Economy Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences (actual data for 2015 are presented).

On June 10, 2016 the Institute released Forecast of the Russian Macroeconomic Indicators for 2016-2018 featuring positive and inertial scenarios of the Russian economy developments.[306] Referring to the document, under the optimistic scenario the Russian CPI growth (December to December of previous year) is projected at 7.4% in 2016, 7.0% in 2017 and 6.4% in 2018. Under the inertial scenario the CPI growth is forecasted at 7.4% in 2016, 6.1% in 2017 and 5.2% in 2018.



Centre for Strategic Research



On May 19, 2017 Mr. Alexey Kudrin, the head of the Centre for Strategic Research, commented to the press that he expects the Russian CPI to grow in the range of 3.0-4.0% in 2017.[307]

On November 7, 2016 selected projections from the joint forecast of the Centre and the Ministry of Economic Development were released by TASS information agency.[308] According to the forecast, the Russian CPI growth rates will reach the target of the Russian Central Bank at 4.0% in 2017 with further decrease to 3.9% in 2018 and 3.8% in 2019. The long-term projections assume inflation decrease to 3.2% per annum by 2025, 2.7% by 2030 and 2.4% by 2035.



The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw)



On March 16, 2017 wiiw released Spring 2017 forecast featuring the Russian CPI growth projections for 2017-2019 at 5.0% (year average) throughout the whole period.[309]

On June 30, 2016 the institute released Forecast Report for 22 countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe (CESEE) for 2016-2018.[310] Among other indicators, the report features the Russian CPI growth projections for 2016-2018. The institute expects the Russian CPI growth at 10.0% in 2016, 6.0% in 2017 and 6.0% in 2018 (year average).



DIW Berlin



See also joint economic forecast of the German research institutions, which is published by CESifo Group Munich.

On September 8, 2017, DIW Berlin published the new Economic Outlook indicating the Russian CPI growth projections for 2017-2019 at 4.2%, 4.1% and 4.0%, respectively (year average).[311]

On June 22, 2017 DIW Berlin released the update of Economic Outlook featuring the Russian CPI growth projections for 2017-2018 indicated at 4.1% and 4.0%, correspondingly (year average).[312]

On March 17, 2017 DIW Berlin issued new Economic Outlook with the Russian CPI growth projections for 2017-2018 updated to 4.6% and 4.1%, correspondingly (year average).[313]

On December 15, 2016 DIW Berlin released Economic Bulletin 50 / 2016 featuring the revised Russian CPI growth projections for 2016-2018 indicated at 6.7%, 4.5% and 4.1%, correspondingly (year average).[314]

On September 14, 2016 DIW Berlin published DIW Economic Bulletin 36 / 2016 with updated Russian CPI growth projections for 2016-2018 at 6.8%, 4.5% and 4.1%, correspondingly (year average).[315]

On June 17, 2016 DIW Berlin released DIW Economic Bulletin 24/25 2016 featuring the Russian CPI growth projections for 2016-2017 at 6.7% and 4.4%, correspondingly (year average).[316]



CESifo Group Munich



On September 28, 2017, CESifo Group Munich in cooperation with DIW Berlin, ifW Kiel, IWH Halle, and RWI Essen released Joint Economic Forecast Autumn 2017[317] (Upturn Remains Robust – Amid Mounting Tensions).The forecast features the Russian CPI growth projections for 2017-2019 indicated at 4.4%, 4.2% and 4.0%, respectively (presumably year average).

On June 12, 2017 CESifo released ifo Economic Forecast for 2017/2018 with the Russian CPI growth projections revised to 4.1% for 2017 and 4.5% for 2018 (year end).[318]

On April 12, 2017 CESifo published Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Spring 2017[319] featuring the updated Russian macroeconomic projections for 2017-2018. Referring to the forecast, the Russian CPI is expected to grow by 5.0% in 2017 and 4.5% in 2018 (year average).

On March 1, 2017 CESifo released EEAG Economic Outlook featuring the updated macroeconomic projections for Russia.[320] Referring to the document, the Russian CPI is projected to grow by 5.0% in 2017 (year average).

On December 16, 2016 CESifo released Economic Forecast for 2016-2018 (Germany’s Robust Economy Faces a Year of Uncertain International Economic Policy).[321] The forecast features the updated Russian CPI growth projections for 2016-2018 indicated at 6.0%, 5.0% and 5.0%, correspondingly (year end).

On September 29, 2016 Ifo published Autumn 2016 economic forecast called “Deutsche Wirtschaft gut ausgelastet – Wirtschaftspolitik neu ausrichten” (in German) featuring the updated Russian CPI growth projections for 2016-2018 at 7.7%, 6.0% and 5.1%, correspondingly (year average).[322]

On June 16, 2016 Ifo released Economic Forecast 2016/2017, where the institute provided CPI growth projections for Russia for 2016-2017 at 7.5% and 6.5%, correspondingly (year-end projections).[323]



Kiel Institute for the World Economy



See also joint economic forecast of the German research institutions, which is published by CESifo Group Munich.

On September 7, 2017, Kiel Institute published new Business Cycle Forecast (“World Economy in Full Swing”).[324] The Russian CPI growth projections for 2017-2019 were indicated in the report at 5.5%, 4.2% and 4.4%, respectively (presumably year average).

On June 15, 2017 Kiel Institute released the updated economic forecast with the Russian CPI growth projections indicated at 4.2% for 2017 and 4.4% for 2018 (year average).[325]

On March 9, 2017 Kiel Institute issued The Kiel Business Cycle Forecast of Spring 2017 with the Russian CPI growth projections for 2017-2018 updated to 4.8% and 5.0%, correspondingly (year average).[326]

On December 15, 2016 Kiel Institute released Winter 2016 Economic Outlook for the world economy featuring the updated Russian CPI growth projections for 2016-2018 indicated at 7.0%, 6.0% and 5.0%, correspondingly (year average).[327]

On September 8, 2016 Kiel Institute published its Economic Outlook for Autumn 2016 with the Russian CPI growth projections for 2016-2018 revised to 8.4%, 6.5% and 5.0%, correspondingly (year average).[328]

On June 16, 2016 Kiel Institute released its Summer 2016 Economic Outlook on the world economy, which features the Russian CPI growth projections for 2016-2017 at 9.0% and 7.0%, correspondingly (year average).[329]



Halle Institute for Economic Research



See also joint economic forecast of the German research institutions, which is published by CESifo Group Munich.

On June 9, 2016 Halle institute provided the global macroeconomic forecasts for 2016-2017 in the report called “The German Economy Benefits from Strong Domestic Demand” by Oliver Holtemöller.[330] Referring to the report, the Russian CPI is expected to grow by 7.0% in 2016 and 5.0% in 2017 (year average).



German Council of Economic Experts (Sachverständigenrat)



On March 20, 2017 the Council released “Konjunkturprognose 2017 und 2018” featuring the updated Russian CPI growth projections for 2017-2018 indicated at 5.1% and 6.1%, correspondingly (year average).[331]

On November 2, 2016 the Council published “Zeit für Reformen” (Time for Reforms) study featuring the Russian CPI growth projections for 2016-2017 at 7.2% and 6.3%, correspondingly (year average).[332]



Economist Intelligence Unit



On September 20, 2017, EIU released the new Europe Growth and Inflation forecast for 2017-2022 with the Russian CPI growth projections until 2021 staying the same (4.1% for 2017, 4.0% for 2018, 4.8% for 2019, 4.3% for 2020 and 4.5% for 2021, year-average projections).[333] EIU also added CPI growth projection for 2022 indicated at 4.3%.

On August 16, 2017, EIU provided the updated Europe Growth and Inflation forecast featuring the revised Russian CPI growth projections (4.1% for 2017, 4.0% for 2018, 4.8% for 2019, 4.3% for 2020 and 4.5% for 2021, year-average projections).[334]

On July 13, 2017, EIU updated Europe Growth and Inflation Forecast.[335] The Russian CPI growth projections for 2017-2021 were retained in accordance with June forecast (4.0% for 2017, 4.2% for 2018, 4.9% for 2019, 4.3% for 2020 and 4.6% for 2021, year average projections).

On June 14, 2017 EIU released the updated Europe Growth and Inflation Forecast with the Russian CPI growth projections revised to 4.0% for 2017, 4.2% for 2018, 4.9% for 2019, 4.3% for 2020 and 4.6% for 2021 (year average).[336]

On May 18, 2017 EIU provided the update to Europe Growth and Inflation Forecast.[337] The projected Russian CPI growth rates for 2017-2021 have been revised to 4.0% for 2017, 4.2% for 2018, 4.9% for 2019, 4.2% for 2020 and 4.3% for 2021.

On April 19, 2017 the EIU released the updated Europe Growth and Inflation Forecast.[338] The Russian CPI growth projections were updated to 4.4% for 2017, 4.6% for 2018, 4.4% for 2019, 4.7% for 2020 and 4.6% for 2021 (year average).

On March 15, 2017 EIU provided the updated Europe Growth and Inflation Forecast with the Russian CPI growth projections for 2017-2021 revised to 4.6% for 2017, 4.3% for 2018, 4.6% for 2019, 4.7% for 2020 and 4.6% for 2021 (year average).[339]

On February 15, 2017 EIU released new revision of Europe Growth and Inflation Forecast for 2017-2021.[340] The Russian CPI growth projections were kept at 5.4% for 2017, 4.4% for 2018, 4.5% for 2019, 4.6% for 2020 and 4.7% for 2021 (year average).

On January 18, 2017 EIU revised the Europe Growth and Inflation Forecast for 2016-2021[341]. The Russian CPI growth estimate for 2016 was confirmed at 7.1% (year average, while the projections for the coming years were corrected to 5.4% for 2017, 4.4% for 2018, 4.5% for 2019, 4.6% for 2020 and 4.7% for 2021 (year average).

On December 14, 2016 EIU released the updated Europe Growth and Inflation Forecast[342] featuring the revised Russian CPI growth projections for 2016-2021. EIU expects CPI growth at 7.1% in 2016, 5.4% in 2017, 4.4% in 2018, 4.4% in 2019, 4.4% in 2020 and 4.7% in 2021 (year average).

On November 16, 2016 the updated Europe growth and inflation forecast was published by EIU with updated inflation projections for Russia.[343] EIU expects the Russian CPI to grow by 7.1% in 2016, 5.5% in 2017, 4.7% in 2018, 5.0% in 2019, 4.7% in 2020 and 4.7% in 2021 (year average).

On November 1, 2016 EIU released the planned update of the Russian GDP growth and inflation projections until 2021 with no changes as compared to October 19, 2016.[344]

On October 19, 2016 EIU provided updated GDP growth and inflation projections in its Europe growth and inflation forecast until the year 2021.[345] The inflation projections for Russia have not changed assuming CPI growth at 7.2% in 2016, 5.7% in 2017, 4.6% in 2018, 4.9% in 2019 and 4.7% in 2020-2021 (year average).

On September 14, 2016 EIU updated its Europe growth and inflation forecast until 2021.[346] The CPI growth projection for 2016 remained the same (7.2%), while the projection for 2017 has been revised to 5.7%. The projections for 2017-2021 remained at 4.6% in 2018, 4.9% in 2019 and 4.7% in 2020-2021 (year average).

On August 17, 2016 EIU revised the Russian inflation projections for 2016-2020 assuming 7.2% CPI growth in 2016 gradually decreasing to the level below 5% in the following years (5.8% in 2017, 4.6% in 2018, 4.9% in 2019 and 4.7% in 2020, year average).[347]



PwC



On August 11, 2017, PwC published Global Economy Watch projections for August 2017 with the Russian CPI growth projections for 2017-2018 staying at 4.7% and 4.5%, respectively (year average).[348] The average annual projection for 2019-2023 was retained at 4.0%.

On June 14, 2017 PwC retained the Russian CPI growth projections for 2017-2018 at 4.7% and 4.5%, respectively (year average).[349] The CPI growth projection for 2019-2023 stayed at 4.0%.

On April 21, 2017 PwC revised the Russian GDP growth and inflation projections.[350] The Russian CPI is expected to grow by 4.7% in 2017 and 4.5% in 2018 (year average). The projected average CPI growth rates for 2019-2023 were retained at 4.0%.

On February 15, 2017 (the specified date is not the exact one) PwC updated its Russian CPI growth projections for 2017-2018 to 5.6% and 4.8%, correspondingly (year average).[351] The average annual CPI growth rate projection for 2019-2023 was indicated at 4.0%.

On December 14, 2016 PwC updated its monthly economic forecast and provided the Russian CPI growth projections for 2016-2018 at 7.3%, 6.3% and 4.0%, correspondingly (year average).[352]

On June 14, 2016 PwC released its monthly update of the Global Economy Watch featuring the Russian CPI growth projections for 2016-2018.[353] According to the update, the Russian CPI is expected to grow by 7.5% in 2016, 7.1% in 2017 and 4.0% in 2018 (year average).



Morgan Stanley



On July 20, 2017, Morgan Stanley provided the Russian CPI growth projections for 2017-2018 at 4.1% and 4.3%, respectively (presumably year average).[354]

On November 28, 2016 the Russian mass media cited Bloomberg and Morgan Stanley, which revised the Russian CPI growth projection for 2017.[355] Morgan Stanley projects the CPI growth will be at 5.1% in 2017 (year average) decreasing to 4.7% by the year end. The year-end inflation for 2018 is projected at 4.5%.

On February 9, 2016 Interfax news agency informed that Morgan Stanley revised its inflation projections for Russia for 2016-2017 to 9.4% and 6.7%, correspondingly.[356]

On December 14, 2015 Morgan Stanley confirmed the 2016 inflation forecast for Russia at 8.5%.[357]

On October 16, 2015 the mass media cited the report of Morgan Stanley mentioning inflation projections for 2016 at 8.5%.[358]



JP Morgan



On September 21, 2016 JP Morgan announced CPI growth projection for 2017 and 2018 at 4.5% and 4.4%, correspondingly.[359]



Bank of America Merrill Lynch



On August 24, 2017, the mass media cited the report called “Russia — August of positive surprises”, which was prepared by Mr. Vladimir Osakovsky, the Chief Economist on Russia and CIS of BofA Merrill Lynch.[360] Referring to the report, the bank revised the Russian CPI growth projection for 2017 from 3.6% to 3.3%.

On December 13, 2016 BofA Merrill Lynch released the global economy report, which was cited by the local media.[361] Referring to the report, the Russian CPI is expected to grow by 7.1% in 2016, 5.0% in 2017 and 4.0% in 2018.

On October 3, 2016 the mass media cited the report BofA’s report “Russia: hawkish guidance to dovish story” featuring the Russian CPI growth projections for 2016-2017.[362]

BofA projects the Russian CPI to grow by 5.8% in 2016 under the average annual Urals crude oil price at USD 43 per barrel. 2017 projection is presented under the baseline and negative scenarios. The baseline scenario assumes the Urals crude oil price at USD 59 per barrel, and the Russian CPI growth is estimated at 4.0%. Under the negative scenario the crude is expected to be as low as USD 25 per barrel, and the Russian CPI is projected to grow by 7.1%.

On December 11, 2015 in the course of business breakfast dedicated to the Russian economy developments, which was organised by Vedomosti newspaper, Mr. Vladimir Osakovsky, Chief Economist on Russia and CIS, commented that he expects 6.7% year-end inflation rates in 2016.[363]



Fitch



On October 2, 2017, Fitch released the Global Economic Outlook (no free access, cited by 1Prime and other mass media) with the Russian CPI growth projections for 2017-2019 indicated at 4.0%, 4.5% and 4.5%, respectively.[364]

On October 18, 2016 Fitch reportedly revised the Russian inflation projections for 2017 to 6% and for 2018 to 5.5% (year end).[365]

On May 25, 2016 Fitch issued new revision of the Global Economic Outlook with updated Russian macroeconomic projections for 2016-2018.[366] Referring to the report, the inflation rates in Russia (year end) are forecasted to be at 8.2% in 2016, 7.1% in 2017 and 6.0% in 2018.

On October 17, 2015 Fitch announced Russian inflation projections (year average) at 15.5% in 2015 and 9% in 2016 given the volatility of the national currency is effectively constrained.[367]



UniCredit Group



On January 9, 2017 Unicredit Bank released CEE Quarterly January 2017 review featuring the Russian CPI growth projections for 2017-2018 indicated at 4.8% and 4.2%, respectively (year average).[368]



Raiffeisen Bank



On October 2, 2017, Raiffeisen Bank released the Central & Eastern European Strategy for 4Q 2017 featuring the updated macroeconomic projections for Russia. According to the document, the bank expects the Russian CPI to grow by 4.0% in 2017 with further growth by 4.5% in 2018 and 4.3% in 2019 (year average projections).[369]

On July 11, 2017, RBI published the annual Russia country report with the Russian CPI growth projections for 2017-2018 confirmed at 4.0% and 4.5%, correspondingly (year average). The year-end projections were indicated at 3.7% and 4.5%, respectively.[370]

On June 28, 2017, RBI released the Central & Eastern European Strategy for 3Q 2017 featuring the bank’s Russian CPI growth projections for 2017-2018 revised to 4.0% and 4.5%, respectively (year average).[371]

On June 1, 2017 Raiffeisen released CEE Banking Sector report with the Russian CPI growth projections for 2017-2018 retained at 4.7% and 4.5%, respectively (year average).[372]

On March 27, 2017 Raiffeisen Bank published the Central & Eastern European Strategy for 2Q 2017 featuring the updated Russian CPI growth projections for 2017-2018.[373] Referring to the document, the bank’s projections were indicated at 4.7% for 2017 and 4.5% for 2018 (year average).

On December 21, 2016 Raiffeisen Bank released the Central & Eastern European Strategy for 1Q 2017 featuring the updated macroeconomic projections for Russia.[374] According to the document, the bank expects the Russian CPI to grow by 7.2% in 2016, 5.4% in 2017 and 5.2% in 2018 (year average).

On September 28, 2016 Raiffeisen Bank International published Central & Eastern European Strategy for 4Q 2016 featuring Russian CPI growth projections for 2016-2018 at 7.4%, 6.1% and 5.3% (year average).[375]

On July 14, 2016 Raiffeisen Bank International released annual country report on Russia, where the CPI growth projections for 2016-2017 stayed at 7.5% and 7.2%, correspondingly (year average).[376]

On July 8, 2016 Raiffeisen Bank International released Central and Eastern European Strategy for 3Q 2016[377] and the report called “Brexit causes roller-coaster ride in third quarter” with revised Russian CPI growth projections for 2016-2017.[378] The CPI growth forecast for 2016 was changed to 7.5% in 2016 and 7.2% to 2017 (year average).

On June 9, 2016 Raiffeisen Bank International released annual CEE Banking Sector Report, where the Russian CPI growth was projected at 8.4% for 2016 and 6.9% for 2017.[379]

On February 4, 2016 analysts of Raiffeisen Bank commented that they expect inflation at the level of 9.5% in 2016, while the estimated inflation rate for January 2016 amounted to 0.9%.[380]



ING Group



On February 9, 2016 Vedomosti newspaper cited report of Mr. Dmitry Polevoi, ING’s economist on Russia and CIS, who released revised Russian inflation projections for 2016-2017.[381] The bank projects that inflation in Russia will be in the range of 8.0-8.5% in 2016 (December to December) slowing down to 4.5% in 2017.



Danske Bank



On March 31, 2017 Danske Bank published new Emerging Markets Briefer featuring the updated Russian macroeconomic projections.[382] Referring to the document, the Russian CPI is still expected to grow by 4.0% in 2017 and 3.7% in 2018.

On December 19, 2016 Danske Bank released emerging Markets Briefer (“A murky outlook for emerging markets in 2017”).[383] The briefer features the Russian CPI growth projections for 2016-2018 at 5.5%, 4.0% and 3.7%, correspondingly.

On October 20, 2016 Danske Bank provided flash comment “Russian output and demand: consumer’s dawn”, where the Russian CPI growth projections for 2016 and 2017 were retained at 5.5% and 5.1%, correspondingly.[384]

On September 30, 2016 Danske Bank released Emerging Markets Briefer for September 2016 featuring Russian CPI growth projections for 2016-2017 at 5.5% and 5.1%, correspondingly (December to December).[385]

On March 18, 2016 Danske Bank released the March issue of Emerging Markets Briefer.[386] Referring to the document, the inflation rates in Russia are projected at 8.1% in 2016 and 5.8% in 2017.



Nordea



On September 6, 2017, Nordea released the new Nordea Economic Outlook (#3 2017) with the Russian CPI growth projections for 2017-2019 indicated at 4.0%, 4.0% and 4.0%, respectively (year average).[387]

On December 1, 2016 Nordea released Economic Outlook Winter 2016 featuring the updated Russian CPI growth projections for 2016-2018 at 7.1%, 4.9% and 4.9%, correspondingly.[388]

On September 6, 2016 Nordea issued Nordea Economic Outlook with updated Russian CPI growth projections for 2016-2018 at 7.2%, 6.1% and 5.0% (year average).[389]

On April 20-21, 2016 Nordea released Russia Economic Outlook[390] and Emerging Markets Outlook[391], where the CPI growth projections for 2016-2017 have been revised to 6.9% and 5.3%, correspondingly.

On March 7, 2016 Nordea published quarterly Nordea Economic Outlook (No. 2, 2016) with revised inflation projections for Russia for 2016 and 2017 at 7.7% and 6.0%, correspondingly.[392]



SEB Group



On September 1, 2017, SEB published the new issue of Nordic Outlook (September 2017) where the Russian CPI growth projections for 2017-2019 were retained at 4.3%, 4.2% and 4.5%, respectively (year average).[393]

On May 9, 2017 SEB group released the Nordic Outlook for May 2017 with the Russian CPI growth projections for 2017-2018 retained at 4.3% and 4.2%, correspondingly (year average).[394]

On March 31, 2017 SEB published Emerging Markets Explorer March 2017 featuring the Russian CPI growth projections for 2017-2019.[395] The Russian CPI is projected to grow by 4.3% in 2017, 4.2% in 2018 and 4.5% in 2019 (year average).

On February 7, 2017 SEB released the new Nordic Outlook with the Russian CPI growth projections for 2017-2018 corrected to 5.0% and 4.8%, correspondingly (year average).[396]

On November 22, 2016 SEB published new issue of Nordic Outlook featuring revised Russian CPI growth projections for 2016-2018 at 7.1%, 5.5% and 5.0%, correspondingly.[397]

On September 15, 2016 SEB released Currency Strategy for September 2016[398], where Russian CPI growth projections for 2016 and 2017 were stated at 7.3% and 6.0%, correspondingly (presumably, year average).



BNP Paribas



On July 10, 2017, BNP Paribas published the updated macroeconomic review on Russia (Russia. Macroeconomic Consolidation) with the Russian CPI growth projections for 2017-2018 revised to 4.5% (year average).[399]

On April 27, 2017 BNP Paribas released macroeconomic outlook for Russia (The Recovery Is Taking Shape) with the Russian CPI growth projections for 2017-2018 indicated at 4.9% and 4.5%, respectively (year average).[400]

On October 11, 2016 BNP Paribas published the macroeconomic update on the Russian economy called “Russie: Difficile reprise”[401], where the Russian CPI growth projections for 2016-2017 have been revised to 7.1% and 5.4%, correspondingly (year average).

On July 8, 2016 BNP Paribas revised its Russian CPI growth projections for 2016-2017 in the report called “Russie: Premiers espoirs de reprise”.[402] Referring to the report, the Russian CPI is expected to grow by 7.4% in 2016 and 6.4% in 2017 (year average).

On April 7, 2016 BNP Paribas published brief review on the Russian economy developments called “Russie: Hausse des risques”.[403] The paper features revised CPI growth projection (year average) at 9.1% for 2016 and 7.2% for 2017.

On March 31, 2016 BNP Paribas released the Russian CPI growth forecast until 2020 (year average data).[404]


BNP Paribas: CPI Dynamics Projections for 2016-2020 (March 2016, year average)


Source: BNP Paribas.



Deka Group



On September 13, 2017, Deka released new issue of Emerging Markets Trends bulletin revising the Russian CPI growth projections for 2017-2018 to 3.9% and 4.0%, respectively (year average).[405]

On August 7, 2017, Deka published Emerging Markets Trends August 2017 bulletin with the Russian CPI growth projections for 2017-2018 revised to 4.4% (year average).[406]

On July 11, 2017, Deka released Emerging Markets Trends bulletin for July 2017 retaining the Russian CPI growth projections for 2017-2018 at 4.2% and 4.3%, correspondingly (year average).[407]

On May 10, 2017 Deka published the new issue of Emerging Markets Trends (May 2017) with the Russian CPI growth projections for 2017-2018 updated to 4.2% and 4.3%, correspondingly (year average).[408]

On April 11, 2017 Deka released Volkswirtschaft Prognosen April / Mai 2017 featuring the updated CPI growth projections for Russia at 4.3% for 2017 and 4.6% for 2018 (year average).[409]

On March 31, 2017 Deka published Emerging Markets Trends April 2017, where the Russian CPI growth projections for 2017-2018 were indicated at 4.5% and 4.7%, correspondingly (year average).[410]

On March 8, 2017 Deka provided Emerging Market Trends issue for March 2017 revising the Russian CPI growth projections for 2017-2018 to 4.6% and 4.7%, correspondingly (year average).[411]

On February 8, 2017 Deka released new issue of Emerging Market Trends bulletin[412] with the Russian CPI growth projections for 2017-2018 updated to 4.8% and 4.7%, correspondingly (year average).

On January 17, 2017 Deka provided January / February 2017 economic forecast.[413] According to the forecast, the Russian CPI is estimated to grow by 7.1% in 2016 and projected to increase by 4.9% in 2017 and 4.7% in 2018 (year average).

On December 8, 2016 Deka released December 2016 / January 2017 economic forecast (Volkswirtschaft Prognosen) featuring the updated Russian CPI growth projections for 2016-2018 that were indicated at 7.1%, 5.1% and 4.6%, correspondingly (year average).[414]

On November 10, 2016 Deka group published the November / December economic forecast (Volkswirtschaft Prognosen)[415] with the Russian CPI growth projections for 2016 and 2017 staying unchanged at 7.1% and 5.1%, correspondingly (year average).

On October 13, 2016 October 2016 issue of Emerging Market Trends was released by Deka with the Russian CPI growth projection for 2016 staying unchanged at 7.1% and 2017 projection corrected to 5.1% (year average).[416]

On September 14, 2016 Deka released Emerging Market Trends for September 2016 with the Russian CPI growth projections for 2016-2017 remaining unchanged at 7.1% and 5.5%, correspondingly (year average).[417]

On August 10, 2016 Deka Group published new issue of Emerging Markets Trends for August 2016[418] with the Russian CPI growth projections for 2016-2017 corrected to 7.1% and 5.5%, correspondingly (year average).

On July 14, 2016 Emerging Market Trends bulletin for July 2016 was released.[419] The Russian CPI growth projection for 2016 remained unchanged at 6.7% while 2017 projection was revised to 5.3% (year average).

On June 16, 2016 Deka Group released new issue of the Emerging Market Trends for June 2016.[420] The Russian CPI growth projections for 2016-2017 were revised to 6.7% in 2016 and 5.5% in 2017 (year average).

On April 12, 2016 Deka Group published the April issue of Emerging Markets Trends with the Russian inflation projection softened to 7.1% for 2016 and the GDP growth projection for 2017 remaining at 5.8%.[421]

On March 15, 2016 Deka Group released its March issue of Emerging Markets Trends research, where the group provided the Russian CPI growth projections for 2016-2017 at 8.2% and 5.8%, correspondingly.[422]



Berenberg Bank



Important note: Berenberg Bank updates its forecasts weekly in Macroausblick bulletin. Starting from January 2017 only information on changes of existing projections will be presented here, while the date of the recent release of projections can be found in Inflation Forecasts Datasheet.

On August 11, 2017, Berenberg revised the Russian CPI growth projections for 2017-2019 to 4.3%, 4.6% and 4.6%, respectively (year average).[423]

On July 14, 2017, Berenberg provided the Russian CPI growth projections for 2017-2019 that were indicated at 4.3%, 4.6% and 4.5%, respectively (year average).[424]

On May 19, 2017 Berenberg Bank released Osteuropa report featuring the revised Russian CPI growth projections for 2017-2018 indicated at 4.3% and 4.6%, respectively (year average).[425]

On April 6, 2017 Berenberg revised the Russian CPI growth projections for 2017-2018 to 4.4% and 4.6%, correspondingly (year average).[426]

On February 24, 2017 Berenberg Bank provided the updated Russian CPI growth projections for 2017-2018 in the new weekly issue of Makroausblick 2017.[427] The CPI growth rates for 2017-2018 were projected at 4.8% and 4.3%, correspondingly (year average, 5.2% and 5.0% under previous projections).

On January 27, 2017 Berenberg published new revision of Makroausblick 2017 with the Russian CPI growth projections for 2017-2018 revised to 5.2% and 5.0%, correspondingly (year average).[428] The inflation estimate for 2016 was corrected to 7.1%.

On January 5, 2017 Berenberg bank released Makroausblick 2017 featuring the revised Russian CPI growth projections. The Russian CPI is estimated to grow by 7.0% in 2016, 4.6% in 2017 and 4.9% in 2018 (year average).[429]

On December 9, 2016 new issue of Makroausblick 2016 was released by Berenberg Bank with the Russian CPI growth projections for 2016-2018 staying unchanged at 7.0%, 4.9% and 5.2%, correspondingly (year average).[430]

On November 21, 2016 Berenberg released the new Osteuropa report with the updated Russian CPI growth projections for 2016-2018 at 7.0%, 4.9% and 5.2%, correspondingly (year average).[431]

On October 14, 2016 the review on the Eastern European economies was released by Berenberg that features updated projections on Russia.[432] The Russian CPI growth is projected at 7.4% in 2016, 6.2% in 2017 and 5.4% in 2018 (year average).

On July 14, 2016 Berenberg released macroeconomic review called “Die osteuropäischen Emerging Markets” with the revised Russian inflation projections for 2016-2018.[433] Referring to the document, the Russian CPI is expected to grow by 7.5% in 2016, 6.2% in 2017 and 5.4% in 2018 (year average).



DNB



On September 7, 2017, DNB released Economic Outlook for August 2017.[434] The Russian CPI growth projections were indicated at 4.5% for 2017 and 4.0% for 2018-2020 (year average).

On February 19, 2016 DNB released its Economic Outlook for January 2016 that features the Russian CPI growth projections for 2016-2019.[435] Referring to the outlook, the Russian CPI is expected to grow by 4.8% in 2016 with the growth slowing down to 4.0% in 2017 and 3.0% in 2018-2019.



Allianz Group



On January 13, 2017 Allianz provided the revised macroeconomic forecasts for BRIC countries featuring the updated Russian CPI growth projections for 2017-2018.[436] Allianz estimated the Russian CPI growth at 7.1% in 2016 and projected 5.3% growth in 2017 and 6.0% growth in 2018 (year average).

On October 28, 2016 Allianz released forecast tables for BRIC countries with the Russian CPI growth projections for 2016-2017 indicated at 7.1% and 5.7%, correspondingly (year average).[437]

On June 13, 2016 Allianz published macroeconomic forecast tables for BRICS with projections of key macroeconomic indicators for 2016-2017.[438] Allianz projected the CPI growth in Russian at 7.6% in 2016 and 6.5% in 2017 (year average).



Euler Hermes (Part of Allianz)



On March 30, 2017 EH released country report on Russia (Return to Modest Growth in 2017 While Risks Remain) with the updated CPI growth projections for 2017 and 2018 indicated at 4.7% and 5.3%, correspondingly (year average).[439]

On March 18, 2016 Euler Hermes released updated country report for Russia featuring GDP growth and inflation projections for 2016-2017.[440] According to the report, the Russian year-end CPI is expected to grow by 8.5% in 2016 and 7.0% in 2017.



CommerzBank



Important note: Commerzbank updates its forecasts weekly in Woche im Fokus bulletin. Starting from July 2016 only information on changes of existing projections will be presented here, while the date of the recent release of projections can be found in Inflation Forecasts Datasheet.

On September 29, 2017, Commerzbank revised the Russian CPI growth projections for 2017-2018 to 3.6% and 4.0%, respectively (year average).[441]

On July 7, 2017, Commerzbank updated the Russian CPI growth projection for 2017 to 3.9% (year average).[442] The 2018 projection retained at 4.5%.

On March 3, 2017 Commerzbank updated the Russian inflation projections for 2017-2018 to 4.5% (year average).[443] The 2016 estimate was indicated at 7.1%.

On January 13, 2017 CommerzBank revised the Russian inflation projections for 2017-2018 assuming it to remain at 5.5% (year average).[444]

On December 2, 2016 CommerzBank amended its Russian CPI growth projections with 2018 projection indicated at 6.0% (year average) retaining previous 2016-2017 forecasts.[445]

On November 18, 2016 CommerzBank revised the Russian CPI growth projection for 2017 to 6.0% keeping projection for 2016 at 8.0%.[446]

On July 1, 2016 CommerzBank released the new issue of Woche in Fokus weekly research, where it retained the Russian inflation projections for 2016-2017 at 8.0% and 7.0%, correspondingly (year average).[447]

On June 10, 2016 Commerzbank published the revised Russian GDP growth projections for 2016-2017 in Woche im Fokus, a weekly economic research paper.[448] Referring to the updated forecast, the Russian inflation is projected at 8.0% in 2016 and 7.0% in 2017 (year average).



Credit Suisse



On September 18, 2017, Credit Suisse indicated the Russian CPI growth projection for 2017-2018 at 4.0% (presumably year average, 1Prime information agency citing Credit Suisse).[449]



Wells Fargo



On April 4, 2017 Wells Fargo provided comments on the Russian economy developments with the CPI growth projections for 2017-2018 indicated at 4.4% and 4.5%, correspondingly (year average).[450]

On December 9, 2016 Wells Fargo released Global Chartbook December 2016 with the Russian CPI growth projections for 2016-2018 indicated at 7.1%, 5.6% and 5.6%, correspondingly (year average).[451]

On September 9, 2016 Wells Fargo released Global Chartbook September 2016 featuring updated Russian CPI growth projections for 2016-2017 at 7.2% and 5.9%, correspondingly (year average).[452]

On June 9, 2016 Wells Fargo released the Global Chartbook June 2016, where the Russian CPI growth projections for 2016-2017 were indicated at 7.3% and 5.9%, correspondingly (year average).[453]



Coface



On July 5, 2017 Coface updated the Russian risk assessment and indicated the Russian CPI growth projection for 2017 at 4.2% (year average).[454]

On October 14, 2016 Coface released the Country Risk Barometer for 3Q 2016.[455] In the report the previous Russian CPI growth projection for 2016 was confirmed at 8.4% (year average).

On October 3, 2016 Coface updated the Russian CPI growth projection for 2016 to 8.4% (year average).[456]



Sberbank



On August 23, 2017, Sberbank retained the Russian CPI growth projection for 2017 at 3.8% retaining 2018-2019 projections at 4.0% (Interfax news agency citing the bank’s presentation to analysts).[457]

On July 15, 2017, Sberbank released Investor Presentation June 2017[458] featuring the Russian CPI growth projections for 2017-2019 indicated at 3.8%, 4.0% and 4.0%, respectively.

On May 30, 2017 Mr. German Gref, the head of Sberbank, in his interview to Russia 24 TV channel confirmed the bank’s inflation projection for 2017 at 3.8%.[459]

On May 24, 2017 Ms. Julia Tseplyaeva, the head of the Centre of Macroeconomic Research of Sberbank, commented to Kommersant newspaper that the banks expects 3.8% CPI growth in 2017.[460]

On March 20, 2017 Sberbank confirmed previously indicated projections for 2017-2019 in its presentation for investors for March 2017.[461]

On December 14, 2016 Sberbank released 2017 Guidance presentation featuring the Russian CPI growth projections for 2017-2019 under 3 scenarios.[462] The bank also indicated the CPI growth projection for 2016 at 5.8%.

Therefore, the bank expects that the Russian Central Bank’s inflation target for 2017 (4.0%) will not be reached in any case. The major named reasons for that are the following components of the inflationary pressure:

On October 24, 2016 Sberbank released Investor Presentation for October 2016[463], where the Russian CPI growth for the year was indicated at 6.4% (presumably year end).

On September 8, 2016 analysts of Sberbank Investment Research commented to 1Prime news agency that they expect the Russian inflation to be at 5.6% in 2016 or even below.[464]

On August 2, 2016 Sberbank Investment Research provided its analytical review on the Russian economy developments to 1Prime information agency.[465] Referring to the cited materials, Sberbank’s experts project the Russian inflation to reach the level of 6% or even less in 2016.

On May 25, 2016 Sberbank released a presentation for investors dedicated to results of IFRS results for 1Q 2016.[466] The presentation features section with macroeconomic projections for 2016 with improved inflation forecast at 6.8% (year-end).

On March 22, 2016 Sberbank released its monthly Investor Presentation for March 2016, where it provided CPI growth projection at 8.5% for 2016 (year average).[467]

On January 21, 2016 RBC cited updated macroeconomic forecast of Sberbank for 2016.[468] Referring to base scenario of the forecast, the inflation in 2016 is projected to be higher than 8.6%.

On November 23, 2015 Kommersant newspaper cited the contents of presentation of Mr. German Gref, the head of Sberbank, at the meeting of Opora Rossii (Foothold of Russia), which is a Russian public organisation for SME support.[469] Referring to the materials, base scenario of Sberbank assumes the following inflation projections until 2020:


Sberbank: Inflation Projections for 2016-2020 (November 2015)


Source: Kommersant.

On October 22, 2015 Sberbank provided updated inflation forecast for 2015 and 2018 in the presentation prepared for Sberbank’s Investor Day in London.[470] The CPI change is projected at 12.3% in 2015 and 7.5% in 2018 under base case scenario.



Sberbank CIB



On September 6, 2016 Kommersant newspaper cited the analytical report of Sberbank CIB with revised inflation projection for 2016 at 5.6% assuming that the weekly inflation rates do not exceed 0.1% until the year end.[471]

On April 1, 2016 Mr. Anton Struchenevsky, the Chief Economist of Sberbank CIB, commented to TASS news agency that he projects inflation rates for 2016 at the level of 7.0%.[472]

On March 21, 2016 Sberbank CIB released the new inflation forecast for 2016 at 8.0%.[473]

On February 19, 2016 analysts of Sberbank CIB, corporate and investment banking division of Sberbank, commented that they expect inflation in 2016 to at the level of 8.8%.[474]

On December 17, 2015 analysts of Sberbank CIB, a corporate & investment banking division of Sberbank, commented that they expect inflation rates at around 8% in 2016.[475] The forecast assumes slowing down of inflation in the beginning of 2016 to the level of less than 10% on annual basis by the end of 1Q 2015.



VEB (VneshEconomBank)



On September 22, 2017, VEB released the forecast of the Russian economy development for 2018-2020 featuring the Russian CPI growth projections under 3 scenarios[476]:

Forecast of VEB for 2017-2020 (September 2017)

-2017201820192020
Baseline (conservative) scenario
Urals crude oil price, USD per barrel50515557
CPI growth (year average), %3.93.93.83.8
CPI growth (year end), %3.43.93.83.8
The base rate (year average), %9.07.96.96.4
The base rate (year end), %8.257.56.56.25
RUR / USD rate (year average)58.859.157.557.0
Scenario of low oil prices
Urals crude oil price, USD per barrel5043.841.642.4
CPI growth (year average), %3.94.64.03.8
The base rate (year end), %8.258.256.756.25
RUR / USD rate (year average)58.863.265.965.3
Moderately optimistic scenario
Urals crude oil price, USD per barrel50515557
CPI growth (year average), %3.94.24.34.1
RUR / USD rate (year average)58.860.862.162.2

On May 31, 2017 Mr. Andrey Klepach, the Deputy head of VEB, commented to the press that he projects the Russian inflation rates in the range of 3.6-3.8% for 2017.[477]

On May 3, 2017 VEB released Forecast of the Russian Economic Development for 2017-2020 featuring baseline scenario and scenario with low crude oil price.[478]

On February 27, 2017 Mr. Andrey Klepach, the Deputy Head of VEB, in the course of the Russian Investment Forum in the city of Sochi announced his macroeconomic projections to the mass media.[479] Mr. Klepach expects the Russian inflation to be at 4.5% in 2017.

On September 20, 2016 Mr. Andrey Klepach, the Deputy Head of VEB, commented that the bank expects inflation at the level of 5.7-5.8% in 2016 (presumably year-end projection).[480]

On August 15, 2016 VEB released updated mid-term forecast of the Russian economy developments[481] and macroeconomic forecast for 2016-2020[482]. The documents provide 3 scenarios of the Russian economy developments:


VEB: Projected Russian CPI Dynamics in 2016-2020 (baseline scenario, average for the period)


Source: VneshEconomBank (VEB).

On March 9, 2016 VEB released its revised macroeconomic forecast for 2016-2018 featuring 3 scenarios of the economic development[483]:

On February 25, 2016 Mr. Andrei Klepach, the Chief Economist of VEB, revised GDP projection for 2016 assuming contraction at around 2% accompanied by inflation projection at 9.2%.[484]

On December 28, 2015 VEB released its corrected macroeconomic forecast for 2016.[485] The bank presented 3 scenarios of economic developments depending on Urals crude oil price dynamics:

On December 8, 2015 Mr. Andrey Klepach, presently Deputy Chairman of VEB and formerly Deputy Minister of Economic Development, confirmed that the bank expects inflation at 13.1% in 2015.[486]

On November 3, 2015 VEB released its forecast of the Russian economic development for 2015-2018 with 3 scenarios.[487] All scenarios assume inflation (year-end CPI change) at 13.1% for 2015.

On September 10, 2015 Mr. Andrey Klepach assumed that inflation in 2016 can be in the range from 6 to 7-7.5% as of the year end. He also commented that the inflation rates will in much respect depend on the decisions related to indexation of pensions and salaries to state employees.[488]

On September 8, 2015 Mr. Andrey Klepach, presently Deputy Chairman of VEB and formerly Deputy Minister of Economic Development, projected 2015 inflation rates in Russia at around 13%.[489]



VTB



On March 1, 2017 Mr. Herbert Moos, Deputy President and Chairman of VTB Bank, commented to the press that the bank expects the Russian inflation in 2017 at 5.0%.[490]



VTB 24



On February 11, 2016 Mr. Mikhail Zadornov, the Head of VTB 24, commented in the interview to Russia 24 TV channel that the updated business plan of the bank assumes inflation not to exceed 8% in 1Q 2016 decreasing to 7-7.5% as of the year end.[491]



VTB Capital



On June 7, 2017 Mr. Alexandr Isakov, the Chief Economist of VTB Capital, commented to 1Prime news agency that the bank projects the Russian inflation rates at 3.8% in 2017.[492]

On July 6, 2016 the new economic report of VTB Capital was cited by TASS information agency.[493] Referring to the report, the inflation rates for 2016 are projected at 6.0-6.3% in case there are no substantial changes in economic environment until the year end. The effect on inflation rates of the recent decision of authorities to remove travel ban and trade sanctions for Turkey was estimated at -0.5%.



Alfa Bank



On April 28, 2016 Alfa Bank substantially improved its Russian GDP projections for 2016-2017 due to above-expected macro indicators of the country in 1Q 2016.[494] The bank also provided updated inflation projection at 8.0% for 2016 and 10.0% for 2017.



GaspromBank



On April 21, 2016 Ms. Gulnara Haidarshina, Deputy Head of Department on Market Conditions Analysis of GaspormBank, commented that the bank has revised the baseline macroeconomic projections for 2016 due to new assumptions on oil prices dynamics and conservative monetary policy of the state.[495] According to revised forecast, the inflation in Russia for 2016 is projected to be at the level of 7.3% (previous projection: 9.2%).



UralSib



On March 9, 2017 Mr. Alexey Devyatov, the Chief Analyst of UralSib Financial Corporation, commented to 1Prime information agency that UralSib expects the inflation in Russia to be at 4.1% in 2017.[496]



BCS Financial Group



On April 14, 2017 Mr. Vladimir Tikhomirov, the Chief Economist of BCS, provided the comments on the CPI developments to 1Prime information agency.[497] He expects the Russian CPI to grow by 5.0% in 2017.



Opinions of Individuals



On December 23, 2016 Mr. Vladimir Putin at the annual news conference provided the updated inflation projection for 2016 at 5.5%.[498] The inflation is supposed to decrease further to the target level of 4%.

On November 22, 2016 Mr. Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia, provided his inflation projection for 2016 estimated in the range of 5.7-5.8%.[499]

On December 28, 2015 Mr. Alexey Kudrin, the former Minister of Finance of Russia, announced to the press that he expects inflation rates in 2016 to exceed official forecast of 6.4% by 1.5%, i.e. to amount to 7.9% as of the year end.[500]

On September 23, 2015 Mr. Dmitry Medvedev in his article “New Normal: Russia and Global Challenges”[501] commented that the inflation in Russia shall be decreased to 4% p.a. within the following 3 years as a part of effort aimed at achieving macroeconomic stability.

On September 4, 2015 Mr. Andrey Belousov, the President’s Aide, announced that inflation in 2015 is likely to be in the range of 11-12%.[502]



Projections for 2016 (Archive)



Weekly Changes in the Russian CPI Growth Projections for 2016 Traced by Factosphere

DateYear-end projections,
% December to December
Year-average projections,
%
MedianMinMaxNumber of assessed projectionsMedianMinMaxNumber of assessed projections
26.12.20165.65.46.2117.16.78.019
19.12.20165.85.56.2117.16.78.018
12.12.20165.85.56.277.17.08.013
05.12.20165.85.56.277.17.07.311
28.11.20165.85.57.0167.17.18.416
21.11.20165.85.57.0137.17.18.412
14.11.20165.85.57.0137.157.18.412
07.11.20165.655.57.0127.27.18.410
31.10.20165.85.57.0177.26.88.418
24.10.20165.85.57.0167.26.88.417
17.10.20165.755.56.6157.26.88.415
10.10.20165.755.46.6157.26.88.414
03.10.20165.7755.56.6147.26.88.414
26.09.20165.85.67.1127.26.88.411
19.09.20165.755.57.1117.26.88.411
12.09.20165.85.57.197.27.18.48
05.09.20166.05.57.197.27.18.06
29.08.20166.35.57.2117.457.18.08

Source: Calculations by Factosphere.



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