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Inflation in Russia

Inflation Summary | CPI Dynamics | PPI Dynamics | GDP Deflator Dynamics | Inflation Forecasts | International Comparisons | Datasheet | Sources |


Last updated: August 18, 2017


CPI Dynamics

PPI Dynamics

GDP Deflator Dynamics

Short-Term Inflation Projections

Medium-Term Inflation Projections

Weekly Changes in Inflation Projections


Important note: if not stated otherwise, when mentioning inflation in a specific year Russian mass media, experts and authorities typically refer to year-over-year percent change in Consumer Price Index (CPI) measured December to December of previous year. The inflation can be presented either in % points to previous period (e.g. like 112.9%, typically used in the state statistics reports) or as a net % growth figure (e.g. like 12.9%, typically used in all cases except statistics reports).



CPI Dynamics



Important note: full data rows on CPI can be found in Datasheet section.


Dynamics of CPI in 2005-2016, December to December of Previous Year


Source: Russian Federal State Statistics Service.


CPI Growth in 2005-2016, Average for the Period


Source: World Bank, Russian Federal State Statistics Service.


Monthly Dynamics of CPI in 2016, % to December of Previous Year


Source: Russian Federal State Statistics Service.


Monthly Dynamics of CPI in 2016-2017, % Month over Month


Source: Russian Federal State Statistics Service.


Monthly Dynamics of CPI in 2016-2017, % to Appropriate Period of Previous Year


Source: Russian Federal State Statistics Service.


Monthly Dynamics of CPI in 2016-2017, % to December of Previous Year


Source: Russian Federal State Statistics Service.



PPI Dynamics



Important note: full data rows on PPI can be found in Datasheet section.


Dynamics of PPI in 2005-2016


Source: Russian Federal State Statistics Service.


Monthly Dynamics of PPI in 2016-2017, Month over Month


Source: Russian Federal State Statistics Service.


Monthly Dynamics of PPI in 2016-2017, % to Appropriate Period of Previous Year


Source: Russian Federal State Statistics Service.


Monthly Dynamics of PPI in 2016, % to December of Previous Year


Source: Russian Federal State Statistics Service.


Monthly Dynamics of PPI in 2017, % to December of Previous Year


Source: Russian Federal State Statistics Service.



GDP Deflator Dynamics




Dynamics of GDP Deflator in 2012-2016


Source: Russian Federal State Statistics Service.



Short-Term Inflation Projections



Comments on the Russian short-term inflation projections can be found here.
Full CPI growth projections datasheet can be found here.

CPI Growth Projections for 2017*

Forecast SourceLast UpdatedCPI growth projection, %
Medians and Spreads of Available Projections
Median of projections made in July-August 2017, year-end projections14.08.20174.0
Spread of projections made in July-August 2017, year-end projections14.08.20173.7 ÷ 4.2
Median of projections made in July-August 2017, year-average projections14.08.20174.2
Spread of projections made in July-August 2017, year-average projections14.08.20173.9 ÷ 4.7
International Organisations
IMF10.07.20174.0
IMF (year average)10.07.20174.2
The World Bank (year average)23.05.20174.1
European Commission (year average)11.05.20174.4
OECD (year average)07.06.20174.2
UN DESA (year average)17.01.20176.6
State Authorities
Ministry of Economic Development (current projection, year end)01.08.20173.8
Ministry of Economic Development (baseline scenario, year average)06.04.20174.0
Ministry of Finance (baseline scenario)11.07.20174.0
Central Bank of Russia (current forecast)28.07.20174.0
Expert Poll Results
Reuters Poll01.08.20174.2
Bloomberg Poll06.06.20174.0
The Economist Poll (year average)10.08.20174.1
Expert Poll of Higher School of Economics15.08.20174.2
* Only publicly available projections are presented.

Key Short-Term Inflation Drivers



Medium-Term Inflation Projections



Comments on the Russian medium-term inflation projections can be found here.
Full CPI growth projections datasheet can be found here.

Available Medium-Term CPI Growth Projections for 2018-2020, %*

Forecast SourceLast Updated201820192020
Medians and Spreads of Available Projections for 2018
Median of projections made in July-August 2017, year-end projections14.08.20174.1--
Spread of projections made in July-August 2017, year-end projections14.08.20173.9 ÷ 4.5--
Median of projections made in July-August 2017, year-average projections14.08.20174.5--
Spread of projections made in July-August 2017, year-average projections14.08.20174.0 ÷ 4.6--
International Organisations
IMF10.07.20174.04.04.0
IMF (year average)10.07.20174.24.04.0
The World Bank (year average)23.05.20174.04.0-
European Commission (year average)11.05.20174.0--
OECD (year average)07.06.20174.0--
UN DESA (year average)17.01.20174.7--
State Authorities
Ministry of Economic Development of Russia (baseline scenario, year end)06.06.20174.04.04.0
Ministry of Economic Development of Russia (baseline scenario, year average)06.04.20174.04.04.0
Ministry of Finance of Russia11.07.20174.04.04.0
Central Bank of Russia (baseline scenario)28.04.20174.04.0-
Expert Poll Results
Reuters Poll02.08.20174.1--
Expert Poll of Higher School of Economics15.08.20174.24.24.2
The Economist Poll (year average)10.08.20174.1--
Bloomberg Poll06.06.20174.0--
Other Medium-Term Projections
Economist Intelligence Unit (year average)16.08.20174.04.84.3
Centre for Development of Higher School of Economics15.05.20174.04.03.9
S&P (year average)17.03.20174.04.04.0
PwC (year average)11.08.20174.54.04.0
Sberbank (baseline scenario)20.03.20174.54.0-
ACRA (Russian rating agency)28.03.20174.04.54.3
Institute of National Economy Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences (inertial scenario)17.05.20174.13.8-
VneshEconomBank (VEB, year average, baseline scenario)03.05.20173.83.93.8
Gaidar Institute (inertial scenario)28.07.20173.93.7-
Eurasian Development Bank10.08.20174.14.0-
* Only publicly available projections are presented.

Key Medium- and Long-Term Inflation Drivers



Weekly Changes in Inflation Projections



In this section we offer historical calculated weekly medians, minimums and maximums of inflation (CPI growth) projections for the current year processing all sources traced by Factosphere. The year-end and the year-average projections are presented separately. Please, note that when calculating appropriate values for the date, we consider solely projections made over the current month and the previous month (the most recent projection for each of sources).

Weekly Changes in the Russian CPI Growth Projections for 2017 Traced by Factosphere

DateYear-end projections,
% December to December
Year-average projections,
%
MedianMinMaxNumber of assessed projectionsMedianMinMaxNumber of assessed projections
14.08.20174.03.74.294.23.94.711
07.08.20174.03.74.284.23.94.510
31.07.20174.053.74.2114.23.94.715
24.07.20174.03.74.2114.23.94.715
17.07.20174.03.74.2104.23.94.714
10.07.20174.03.74.194.23.94.714
03.07.20174.0253.84.164.24.04.710
26.06.20174.03.04.3144.24.04.716
19.06.20174.03.04.3134.24.04.715
12.06.20174.03.04.3134.254.04.512
05.06.20173.93.04.3104.34.04.511
29.05.20174.03.05.0144.34.05.015
22.05.20174.13.05.0134.354.05.014
15.05.20174.13.85.094.44.05.014
08.05.20174.13.85.094.44.05.013
01.05.20174.13.85.094.44.05.012
24.04.20174.13.85.0154.54.05.119
24.04.20174.13.85.0154.54.05.119
17.04.20174.13.85.0144.54.05.117
10.04.20174.13.85.0114.554.05.416
03.04.20174.24.05.074.554.35.414
27.03.20174.24.05.0104.94.55.614
20.03.20174.24.05.084.84.55.613
13.03.20174.24.05.084.84.55.410
06.03.20174.354.05.064.94.55.410
27.02.20174.454.15.065.254.86.610
20.02.20174.44.15.055.254.86.610
13.02.20174.454.15.045.254.86.68
06.02.20174.454.15.045.44.96.67
30.01.20174.14.05.095.44.56.615
23.01.20174.04.05.075.44.56.615
16.01.20174.04.05.075.354.56.314
09.01.20174.04.05.065.44.56.310
26.12.20164.74.05.0115.44.56.319
19.12.20164.74.05.0115.34.56.318
12.12.20164.74.05.075.54.56.313
05.12.20164.74.05.175.24.56.311
28.11.20164.754.06.0145.24.56.314
21.11.20164.64.06.0135.24.56.211
14.11.20164.64.06.0135.24.57.011
07.11.20164.64.06.0135.44.77.09
31.10.20165.04.06.0175.74.57.017
24.10.20165.04.06.0155.94.57.016
17.10.20164.94.06.0135.84.57.014

Source: Calculations by Factosphere.

Weekly Changes in the Russian CPI Growth Projections for 2018 Traced by Factosphere

DateYear-end projections,
% December to December
Year-average projections,
%
MedianMinMaxNumber of assessed projectionsMedianMinMaxNumber of assessed projections
14.08.20174.13.94.574.54.04.610
07.08.20174.053.94.564.44.04.69
31.07.20174.053.94.584.354.04.614
24.07.20174.14.04.584.44.04.614
17.07.20174.054.04.574.354.04.613
10.07.20174.054.04.574.354.04.613
03.07.20174.14.04.544.44.04.69
26.06.20174.03.94.294.23.84.615
19.06.20174.03.94.284.23.84.614
12.06.20174.03.94.284.23.84.611
05.06.20174.03.94.274.23.84.610
29.05.20174.03.74.294.23.84.614
22.05.20174.03.74.294.23.84.613
15.05.20174.03.74.054.253.84.613
08.05.20174.03.74.054.53.84.612
01.05.20174.03.74.054.54.04.611
24.04.20174.03.74.594.54.06.118
17.04.20174.03.74.584.54.06.116
10.04.20174.04.04.574.54.06.115
03.04.20174.04.04.544.54.06.113
27.03.20174.054.04.564.64.16.112
20.03.20174.054.04.444.54.15.011
13.03.20174.054.04.444.454.35.08
06.03.20174.24.14.324.454.35.08
27.02.20174.254.04.744.74.36.08
20.02.20174.254.04.744.754.46.08
13.02.20174.24.04.734.754.46.06
06.02.20174.24.04.734.854.46.06
30.01.20174.03.75.084.94.06.013
23.01.20174.03.75.064.94.06.013
16.01.20174.03.75.064.94.06.012
09.01.20174.03.75.064.94.05.69

Source: Calculations by Factosphere.



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