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GDP of Russia

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Last updated: June 27, 2017


Russian GDP Volume

GDP Dynamics

Short-Term GDP Projections

Medium-Term GDP Projections

Weekly Changes in GDP Growth Projections




Russian GDP Volume



GDP in current prices (2015)RUR 81.3 trillion, RUR 80.8 trillion*
(about USD 1.31 trillion); RUR 83.2 trillion**
GDP in current prices (2016, second estimate)RUR 86.0436 trillion
GDP based on PPP (2015)USD 3.718 trillion
(international dollars)
GDP per capita, current prices (2015)USD 9 055
per person
GDP per capita based on PPP (2015)USD 24 451
(international dollars)
Share in the World GDP (2015)3.3%

* Before revision made by the Russian State Statistics Service on December 30, 2016 and February 1, 2017.
** After the revision made on February 1, 2017.



GDP Dynamics



The Russian economy depends heavily upon the oil & gas sector performance, and the Urals crude oil price has been considered to be the major driver of the Russian GDP developments.

Gradual deterioration of the investment climate and geopolitical tensions accompanied by the dramatic slump in crude prices have been the key factors shaping the landscape of the Russian economy in the recent years.

Important note: on December 30, 2016 the Russian State Statistics Service revised the GDP estimate for 2015 in a major way. Specifically, in the course of the third planned GDP assessment the Russian GDP contraction rate was corrected from 3.7% to 3.0%.[1] In accordance with available information, the estimate for 3Q 2015 has been revisited due to amended results of activities of the state management and the military sector (0.8% contraction was changed to 3.4% growth). Referring to the mass media, the mentioned growth is most likely related to contribution of the military sector due to commencing military activities in Syria and participation in the conflict in Ukraine.[2] Besides this, the methodology on military spending assessment in GDP calculation has been reportedly revised.[3] The delay on proper presentation of 2015 results is most likely connected to substantial lag in provision of statistical information by the enterprises of the state management and the military sector.

On February 1, 2017 the Russian State Statistics Service provided the first estimate on the Russian GDP developments in 2016 revising further the GDP contraction for 2015 from 3.0 to 2.8%.[4] Mr. Alexandr Surinov, the head of the Russian State Statistics Service, commented that the changes made in the end of 2016-beginning of 2017 are mostly related to the revised results of activities of SME sector and introduction of new classifier of economic activities in the course of OECD statistics harmonization procedure.[5]


GDP Dynamics in Russia in 2012-2016


After an outstanding economy contraction in 2015, the year 2016 became the year of hopes of better performance. However, the beginning of the year showed no signs of relief with the Urals crude oil price falling below USD 30 per barrel in February. The gradual revival started soon after, and in April 2016 the crude price hit USD 40 per barrel fluctuating strictly above that level afterwards. That resulted in reducing quarterly and monthly GDP contraction rates, and those rates have gradually approached positive values closer to the year end. The present and future developments of the Russian GDP and its components are still subject to considerable limitations:

On February 2, 2017 the Russian State Statistics Service released the first estimate on the Russian GDP developments in 2016 assuming 0.2% contraction.[11] At the same time, the GDP contraction estimate for 2015 was revised to 2.8%, and that revision has not been considered in estimates / forecasts of the independent analysts made throughout 2016 and beginning of 2017. That explains the differences between official and independent estimates and forecasts.

On March 31, 2017 the second estimate was provided confirming the GDP contraction for 2016 at 0.2%.[12]


Quarterly GDP Dynamics in Russia in 2015-2017


Source: Russian Federal State Statistics Service, data for 2015 before revisions made on December 30, 2016 and February 1, 2017.


Quarterly GDP Indices by VneshEconomBank for 2015-2017


Source: VneshEconomBank (VEB).


Monthly GDP Dynamics in Russia in 2016 (Ministry of Economic Development)


Source: Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation.


GDP: Dynamics of GDP growth, constant prices (base year 2008), to appropriate period of previous year


Source: VneshEconomBank (VEB).



Short-Term GDP Projections



Comments on the Russian short-term GDP growth prospects can be found here.
Extended GDP growth projections datasheet can be found here.

The most part of available projections for 2017 rely on the assumption of the crude oil price staying in the range of USD 40-60 per barrel supporting the gradual recovery of the Russian economy. There are good chances to see the signs of the economy’s recovery already in the first quarters of 2017, but the recovery rates are not expected to be high. Subject to the absence of external shocks, the Russian GDP growth rate is mostly projected in the range of 1.0%-1.5% for 2017.

Russian GDP Projections for 2017, %

Forecast SourceLast UpdatedGDP growth / contraction projection, %Corresponding average annual crude oil price projection, USD per barrel
Medians and Spreads of Available Projections for 2017 (extended datasheet)
Median of projections made in May-June 201726.06.20171.3-
Spread of projections made in May-June 201726.06.20170.5 ÷ 2.0-
International Organisations
IMF19.05.20171.4-
The World Bank05.06.20171.3-
European Commission11.05.20171.2-
OECD07.06.20171.4-
EBRD10.05.20171.2-
UN (DESA)16.05.20171.5-
State Authorities
Ministry of Economic Development of Russia (baseline scenario)26.06.20172.0-
Ministry of Finance (baseline scenario)28.10.20160.6-
Ministry of Finance (current forecast)20.03.20171.5 ÷ 2.0-
Central Bank of Russia16.06.20171.3 ÷ 1.8-
Experts’ Polls Results
Reuters Poll01.06.20171.4-
FocusEconomics Polls07.06.20171.3-
Bloomberg Poll16.01.20171.1-
The Economist Poll08.06.20171.4-
Experts Poll of Higher School of Economics18.05.20171.1-

Key Short-Term GDP Development Drivers



Medium-Term GDP Projections



The strong drivers of the national economy growth are not so clear for now, and Russia is projected to enter the long period of very slow economic growth underperforming not only the emerging markets’ average, but also the world’s average. The implementation of massive economic reforms that could facilitate growth is likely to appear on the agenda closer to 2018 presidential elections, but even in case they are well elaborated and introduced, it will take years to feel their noticeable impact on the country’s economic development. At present the projected GDP growth rates for 2018-2020 mostly do not exceed 2.0% per annum.

Comments on the Russian medium-term GDP growth prospects can be found here.
Extended GDP growth projections datasheet can be found here.

Available GDP Growth Projections for 2018-2020, %*

Forecast SourceLast Updated201820192020
Medians and Spreads of Available Projections for 2018 (extended datasheet)
Median of projections made in May-June 201726.06.20171.5--
Spread of projections made in May-June 201726.06.20170.9 ÷ 3.2--
International Organisations
International Monetary Fund (IMF)19.05.20171.41.51.5
The World Bank05.06.20171.41.4-
European Commission11.05.20171.4--
OECD07.06.20171.6--
EBRD10.05.20171.4--
UN (DESA)16.05.20171.5--
State Authorities
Ministry of Economic Development of Russia (baseline scenario)06.06.20171.51.51.5
Ministry of Finance of Russia (baseline scenario)28.10.20161.72.1-
Central Bank of Russia (baseline scenario)24.03.20171.0 ÷ 2.01.0 ÷ 2.0-
Experts’ Polls Results
Bloomberg Poll16.01.20171.5--
FocusEconomics Poll07.06.20171.7--
Experts Poll of Higher School of Economics18.05.20171.51.71.7
The Economist Poll08.06.20171.7--
Reuters Poll01.06.20171.7--
Other Medium-Term Projections
Economist Intelligence Unit14.06.20171.41.71.6
Centre for Development of Higher School of Economics (baseline scenario)15.05.20170.91.51.6
Institute of National Economy Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences (inertial scenario)17.05.20171.62.4-
Centre for Strategic Research (inertial scenario)11.04.20171.81.92.0
PwC14.06.20171.41.51.5
DNB20.04.20171.51.51.5
VneshEconomBank (VEB, baseline scenario)03.05.20171.71.92.2
Eurasian Development Bank24.05.20171.41.6-

*Projections that were made throughout 2016-2017 are presented.

Key Medium- and Long-Term GDP Development Drivers



Weekly Changes in GDP Growth Projections



In this section we offer historical weekly dynamics of calculated medians, minimums and maximums of GDP growth projections for the current and the following year processing all sources traced by Factosphere. Please, note that when calculating appropriate values for the date, we consider solely projections made in the current month and the previous month (the most recent projection for each of sources).

Weekly Changes in the Russian GDP Growth Projections for 2017 Traced by Factosphere

DateMedian,
% to previous year
Min,
% to previous year
Max,
% to previous year
Number of assessed projections (current and previous month)
26.06.2017+1.3+0.5+2.035
19.06.2017+1.3+0.8+2.031
12.06.2017+1.3+0.8+2.028
05.06.2017+1.3+0.8+2.027
29.05.2017+1.3+0.8+2.034
22.05.2017+1.3+0.8+2.032
15.05.2017+1.3+0.8+2.026
08.05.2017+1.3+0.8+2.024
01.05.2017+1.3+0.8+2.023
24.04.2017+1.3+0.5+2.039
17.04.2017+1.2+0.5+2.037
10.04.2017+1.2+0.5+2.030
03.04.2017+1.1+0.5+2.027
27.03.2017+1.15+0.8+2.030
20.03.2017+1.1+0.8+2.027
13.03.2017+1.2+0.8+1.716
06.03.2017+1.2+0.8+1.714
27.02.2017+1.2+0.8+1.724
20.02.2017+1.2+0.8+1.623
13.02.2017+1.2+0.8+1.621
06.02.2017+1.0+0.4+1.619
30.01.2017+1.1+0.5+1.633
23.01.2017+1.1+0.5+1.629
16.01.2017+1.2+0.5+1.625
09.01.2017+1.1+0.5+1.622
26.12.2016+1.1+0.4+1.637
19.12.2016+1.1+0.4+1.635
12.12.2016+1.0+0.4+1.525
05.12.2016+1.0+0.4+1.524
28.11.2016+1.1+0.3+2.233
21.11.2016+1.0+0.3+2.225
14.11.2016+1.0+0.3+2.225
07.11.2016+0.9+0.3+2.222
31.10.2016+1.1-0.1+2.239
24.10.2016+1.1-0.1+2.237
17.10.2016+1.1-0.1+2.234

Source: Calculations by Factosphere.

Weekly Changes in the Russian GDP Growth Projections for 2018 Traced by Factosphere

DateMedian,
% to previous year
Min,
% to previous year
Max,
% to previous year
Number of assessed projections (current and previous month)
26.06.2017+1.5+0.9+3.231
19.06.2017+1.5+0.9+3.229
12.06.2017+1.5+0.9+3.227
05.06.2017+1.5+0.9+3.226
29.05.2017+1.5+0.9+2.130
22.05.2017+1.5+0.9+2.128
15.05.2017+1.55+1.3+2.122
08.05.2017+1.6+1.3+2.120
01.05.2017+1.6+1.3+2.119
24.04.2017+1.5+0.6+2.132
17.04.2017+1.5+0.6+2.131
10.04.2017+1.5+0.6+2.125
03.04.2017+1.5+0.6+2.122
27.03.2017+1.5+1.0+2.121
20.03.2017+1.4+1.0+2.119
13.03.2017+1.5+1.1+2.111
06.03.2017+1.4+1.1+2.19
27.02.2017+1.5+1.1+2.217
20.02.2017+1.5+1.1+2.217
13.02.2017+1.5+1.1+2.215
06.02.2017+1.45+1.2+2.214
30.01.2017+1.5+1.0+2.226
23.01.2017+1.5+1.0+2.523
16.01.2017+1.6+1.0+2.519
09.01.2017+1.5+1.0+2.519

Source: Calculations by Factosphere.



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