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GDP of Russia

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Last updated: June 27, 2017


Short-Term GDP Growth Projections

Mid-Term GDP Growth Projections

Long-Term GDP Growth Projections

Russian GDP Growth Forecasts Datasheet

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

The World Bank

OECD

OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries)

UN Development Policy and Analysis Division (DESA)

European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD)

European Commission

Eurasian Development Bank

Ministry of Economic Development of Russia

Ministry of Finance of Russia

The Central Bank of Russia

Moody’s

Fitch Ratings

Standard & Poor’s

Dagong Rating Agency (China)

Analytical Credit Rating Agency (ACRA)

Expert Surveys of HSE

Reuters Polls

RosBusinessConsulting Polls

Vedomosti Newspaper Polls

Interfax Polls

FocusEconomics Polls

Bloomberg Polls

The Economist Polls

Centre for Development of Higher School of Economics

Centre for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy

Institute of National Economy Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences

Economic Expert Group

Centre for Strategic Research

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw)

DIW Berlin

CESifo Group Munich

Kiel Institute for the World Economy

Halle Institute for Economic Research

Bank of Finland (BOFIT)

German Council of Economic Experts (Sachverständigenrat)

Economist Intelligence Unit

PwC

Morgan Stanley

JP Morgan

Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Deutsche Bank

Citigroup

HSBC

ING Group

Barclays

UniCredit Group

Raiffeisen Bank

Societe Generale

Nomura Securities

BNP Paribas

CommerzBank

ABN Amro

Allianz Group

Euler Hermes (Part of Allianz)

Berenberg Bank

Danske Bank

Nordea

SEB Group

Goldman Sachs

Deka Group

DNB

Credit Suisse

Wells Fargo

Rabobank

Coface

Sberbank

Sberbank CIB

VneshEconomBank (VEB)

VTB

VTB 24

Alfa Bank

UralSib Group

GaspromBank

RosBank

Renaissance Capital

BCS Financial Group

Opinions of Individuals

Projections for 2016 (Archive)




Short-Term GDP Growth Projections



The year 2017 is mostly considered as the year marking the beginning of gradual recovery of the ailing Russian economy. Both state authorities and experts believe the economy to demonstrate growth already in 1Q 2017, and those expectations have been confirmed by preliminary estimates. The growth rates are not likely to be high, but they are projected to accelerate closer to the year end. The medians of available projections indicate the Russian GDP growth expectations at the level slightly above 1.0%.

There are the following major drivers of the Russian GDP developments in 2017:

Crude oil price developments. The key driver for the short-term projections on the Russian economy development has been the crude oil price dynamics that heavily influences all of the GDP components. In the end of 2016 the Urals crude oil price exceeded USD 55 per barrel, and that created ground for positive expectations on the Russian economy growth prospects. Due the agreement on oil supply cut reached in the end of 2016, the oil prices are expected to be closer to the upper bound of the commonly projected mid-term interval (USD 40-60 per barrel) throughout 2017. However, there are chances that the higher prices will lead to the rapid recovery of the shale oil production in the U.S. that may contribute to negative correction of prices already in the second half of the year.

Inflation targeting policy of the state. The inflation targeting policy, which aims at reaching 4% inflation rates by the year end assuming very conservative approach of the Russian Central Bank to the base rate hikes, will continue suppressing consumption throughout 2017. However, there are on-going talks on introduction of rouble depreciation policy that could facilitate GDP growth in the short term with estimated negative effects on the medium- and long-term growth.[112]

Decreased government expenses. The existing budgetary deficit and adopted fiscal consolidation policy force the state to decrease the budgetary outlays. The state presently aims to cut the deficit by 1% of GDP in 2017 (from 3.2% of GDP in 2016 to 2.2% of GDP in 2017).

International sanctions. There are chances that the EU will consider lifting sanctions on Russia already in the mid-2017, and in case of positive decision one could expect noticeable contribution of the sanctions’ removal to the economy growth (0.5-1.0% contribution on annual basis). There are also chances of gradually improving relations with the U.S., but the probability of U.S. sanctions’ removal is considered as low for 2017.

Deteriorating growth of the Chinese economy. Reduction in demand for commodities from the side of China is likely to have negative impact on the Russian exports’ volumes in 2017. China is gradually replacing own oil production with imports, but the share of the U.S. shale oil companies in the imports structure is increasing leaving less space to the Russian exports.



Mid-Term GDP Growth Projections



The mid-term forecasts are heavily unreliable in the present turbulent environment, but at this point the drivers for strong Russian GDP growth in the medium term are not so evident. Russia has low chances to overcome heavy dependence on oil & gas sector without focused long-lasting efforts, while the Brent / Urals crude oil prices are not likely to hit high values of previous years exceeding USD 90-100 per barrel primarily due to the US shale oil revolution and substantial decrease of the Chinese economy growth rates that stressed the world demand for energy resources. The prospects of resolving Ukrainian conflict and full withdrawal of sanctions over Russia in the following several years are also quite vague.

Given that structural problems of the Russian economy showed up well before 2014-2015 shocks, the experts generally expect the Russian economy to demonstrate lacklustre performance in 2018 and later on. Specifically, International Monetary Fund forecasts moderate GDP growth rates at 1.1-1.5% a year in 2017-2021[113]. The present inflation targeting policy of the state (see also Inflation Forecasts) also negatively influences growth prospects in the several coming years as far as it assumes suppressed consumption.


IMF: Russian GDP Growth Projections until 2020 (October 2016)


Source: International Monetary Fund.

All in all, the better developments of the Russian economy in the medium-run can be provided by an unexpected substantial recovery of oil prices, improving international relations and sound economic policy facilitating the investment growth.

The major internal and external factors outlining the mid-term Russian economy prospects are the state economic policy developments and the crude oil price developments.

State Economic Policy Developments

Efficient monetary policy that has been carried out by the Russian state authorities by now may diminish negative effects for the Russian economy in the coming years. However, in order to secure the steady economic growth for the long term vast reforms aimed, in the first place, at dramatic improvement of investment climate and securing global competitiveness and growth for a number of the most prospective Russian industries and sectors will be required (opinion of factosphere.com).

The current developments show that the state is extremely cautious on introduction of any of specific and urgently needed structural reforms partially due to presidential elections on the horizon, and the process of reviving the Russian ailing economy is likely to be the long and painful one.

As a result of discussions on economic prospects and possible reforms within the Russian government, in April 2016 it was decided to start preparation of the new medium-term economic strategy by the state (“Strategy 2030”) to be ready by the mid-2017. At the same time, the Working Group of Economic Council under the President on Priorities of Structural Reforms and Economic Growth was established with participation of the leading Russian economists in order to make own proposals on reforms to be further used in the course of elaboration of Strategy 2030.[114] The Working Group is led by Mr. Alexey Kudrin, ex-Minister of Finance and the present head of the Centre for Strategic Research. In the course of elaboration of the strategy for Russia the Centre cooperates closely with the Ministry of Economic Development.

On December 1, 2016 Mr. Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia, in his speech for the Russian Parliament assigned the Government to elaborate an action plan until 2025 that would secure reaching the domestic economy’s growth rates above the world’s average by 2019-2020. The plan is to be finalized by May 2017.

It shall be noted that planning activities of the Ministry of the Economic Development address primarily the economic regulations and measures, while the strategy elaborated by the Centre for Strategic Research led by Mr. Kudrin embraces a wider range of both social and economic reforms.

Before an action plan on possible reforms is elaborated and approved, the state revealed inflation targeting policy as the top priority for the coming years coupled with budgetary deficit reduction measures primarily relying on cost-cutting efforts, such as increase in pension age for the state employees starting from 2017, keeping pensions’ indexation below inflation rates, cutting expenses on the selected state projects and similar activities. We shall note that the other side of the cost-cutting practices is the appropriate substantial decrease in consumption that negatively hits GDP growth prospects.

In our opinion, the realistic plans of increasing Russian economic growth for the medium and long term would inevitably require making the Russian economy and the Russian society much more open. That is a “must” for proper integration into international division of labor and diversification of the domestic economy. At the same time, such an idea dramatically contradicts the present developments and is likely to be confronted by many interest groups influencing the decision-making in the country. In fact, the challenge of making Russia a sufficiently open economy and society has never been resolved retrospectively, and that shall be considered when making assumptions on major changes and improvements. Well-thought monetary measures, adequate tax policy and support of entrepreneurship that are most likely to be discussed among the top priorities for reforms would surely provide a positive contribution to the Russian GDP, but that is still not likely to be enough for sustainable and sound growth.

The Crude Oil Price Developments

We shall note that the changing paradigm of the world crude oil market creates an outstanding challenge for the Russian economic development even in case the proper economic reforms are elaborated and introduced.

Nowadays, the world’s leading oil suppliers belonging to OPEC are not so eager to dramatically limit extraction and sales even in the conditions of relatively low prices. There are on-going attempts to facilitate growth in prices, but one cannot expect the dramatic changes. The reasons for that are tough choices the major oil exporters had to make primarily due to the following factors:

In case OPEC dramatically freezes oil production, that would most likely lead to higher oil prices, but also to rapidly increasing supply from the non-OPEC producers like the U.S. shale oil companies that eventually may lead to the noticeable price deterioration in the medium term. Relatively high crude oil prices would also lead to better feasibility of green technologies and their intensified introduction with demand for oil narrowing at higher rates in the long run.

Therefore, the key members of OPEC (primarily Saudi Arabia and Iraq), despite the on-going talks and short-term agreements on freezing production, are likely to be forced to stick to another strategy in the end utilising “sell as much as you can now” approach that inevitably leads to deterioration in prices.

Such strategy could help in driving a number of non-OPEC producers with higher production costs (primarily the shale oil companies) out of the market. On the other hand, substantial decrease in the crude oil price in the recent years became a blessing for consumers, and it is likely to lead to much longer penetration period for green technologies due to their lower profitability as compared to traditional oil-based solutions. Therefore, the crude oil producers are likely to generate sound revenues for longer if the crude price is not so high.

The agreement on oil supply cut made in the end of 2016 does not contradict the overall trend. Specifically, Russia entered the agreement having the record high oil extraction volumes and, thus, minimizing the influence of the cut on the factual standing in the global market.

We can guess that the current oil market status quo and fundamental factors staying behind have good chances to retain both in the short- and medium term with the crude oil price mostly staying in the range of USD 40-60 per barrel.

The long-term outlook for Russia under such scenario is not so promising. Even having the right strategic options selected, due to low income from oil exports the country is likely to face the lack of resources to be directed for development and diversification of economy, so it would really need to punch above its weight in order to overcome dependency on oil.

The Impact of Sanctions

The present impact of sanctions on the Russian economy is considered to be relatively moderate as compared to other key influencing factors by the majority of experts. On November 11, 2016 Mr. Sergei Guriev, the EBRD’s Chief Economist, provided an estimate of the loss of Russia due to sanctions at 0.5-1.0% of GDP.[115] On November 18, 2016, Mr. Marc Luet, the Citi’s head for Russia and CEE, commented to the press that the weight of sanctions in the overall Russian GDP contraction is estimated at 10%.[116]

It is no doubt that sanctions are transmitting a clear “no go” signal to many of risk averse international investors and potential partners of Russia, and their removal would bring positive momentum to the national economy in the first place via investment and net exports components of the Russian GDP. The prospects of sanctions’ removal are likely to improve for Russia under the U.S. presidency of Mr. Donald Trump subject to the absence of new political shocks.

On December 19, 2016 the EU prolonged economic sanctions over Russia until July 31, 2017.[117] However, there are increasing doubts on sanctions’ effectiveness and a strong push from countries willing to normalize economic relations with Russia. As far as the appropriate decision requires unanimity among the 28 governments, it will be more difficult to agree upon the sanctions’ renewal the next time.[118] One of the additional factors of uncertainty is participation of Russia in the Syrian conflict, but at this point the possibility to impose related sanctions or other restrictions is not in the agenda of the EU.

Influence of Brexit

The influence of Brexit is not expected to be extensive for the Russian economy. The share of the UK in the Russian foreign trade turnover (e.g. exports + imports) was at only 2.1% in 2015[119]. Besides this, as much as 77.6% of the Russian goods’ exports to the UK in 2015 fell at mineral fuels[120], and those flows can be more or less quickly redirected to other markets in case there is a reason for that. The impact of Brexit for the Russian foreign trade may be the most substantial in relation to the cross-border turnover of services with the UK’s share in the aggregate Russian export and import services flows at 5.89% (2015)[121]. Specifically, the services trade can suffer in case of introduction of sanctions or new regulations influencing the services sector from the side of the UK.

The following evident effects are likely to influence Russia in the long-run in relation to Brexit:



Long-Term GDP Growth Projections



The existing long-term projections for Russia have very poor chances to become reality given the rapid changes in fundamental factors throughout the recent decades. However, one could still expect that the Russian economy is likely to retain its rentier nature and will continue to depend heavily on the world market prices for natural resources, primarily the crude oil price.

Without the extensive reforms and smart economic policy that would allow to attract external investment and secure technology spillovers together with other positive effects, the place of Russia in the international division of labour shall not dramatically change. Therefore, in the long-term the Russian economy is likely to continue underperforming showing the results inferior to its emerging market peers like India and China.

The available long-term GDP growth projections for Russia are primarily provided by the state, and, similarly to the medium-term projections, they often lack consistency.

Specifically, in the beginning of October 2016 the Ministry of Economic Development presented the draft of Strategic Forecast until 2035 to the Russian Government[124] that assumes the Russian economy to grow at CAGR of 2.6% over 2016-2020, 4.0% in 2021-2025, 3.6% in 2026-2030 and 3.3% in 2031-2035.

On October 20, 2016 the updated long-term projections of the Ministry until 2035 with 3 scenarios of the economy developments was reportedly directed to the Ministry of Finance for budgetary planning purposes.[125] According to the revised projections, under the baseline scenarios the Russian economy will continue stagnation in the following decades with GDP growth rates below the world’s average.

When assessing the long-term Russian economy prospects, one shall also consider negative demographic trends that are likely to stay in place for the coming decades. Specifically, according to assumptions of the “baseline+” scenario presented above the number of people employed in the economy will be decreasing from 68.4 million to 2016 to 66.6 million in 2026-2028 then recovering to 68.1 million in 2035 (the baseline scenario assumes gradual decrease to 64.4 million by 2035).



Russian GDP Growth Forecasts Datasheet



Important note: Please, note that the provided figures represent publicly available information and do not cover data of reports with limited distribution and other closed or limited sources.

Institution / CompanyUpdated2017201820192020
International Organisations
International Monetary Fund (IMF)19.05.20171.41.41.51.5
The World Bank05.06.20171.31.41.4
OECD07.06.20171.41.6
OPEC13.06.20171.21.41.72.0
UN Development Policy and Analysis Division (DESA)16.05.20171.51.5
European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD)10.05.20171.21.4
European Commission11.05.20171.21.4
Eurasian Development Bank24.05.20171.11.41.6
State Authorities
Ministry of Economic Development of Russia (baseline scenario)26.06.20172.01.51.51.5
Ministry of Finance of Russia (baseline scenario)28.10.20160.61.72.1
Ministry of Finance of Russia (current projection)20.03.20171.5 ÷ 2.0
Central Bank of Russia (baseline scenario)24.03.20171.0 ÷ 1.51.0 ÷ 2.01.0 ÷ 2.0
Central Bank of Russia (current projection)16.06.20171.3 ÷ 1.8---
Rating Agencies
Moody’s22.05.20171.51.5
Fitch Ratings14.10.20161.32.0
S&P17.03.20171.51.71.71.7
Dagong rating agency (China)22.09.20161.0
Analytical Credit Rating Agency (ACRA)28.03.20170.50.60.80.9
Results of Expert Polls
Higher School of Economics (experts’ poll)18.05.20171.11.51.71.7
Reuters Polls (consensus forecast)01.06.20171.41.7
FocusEconomics Polls (consensus forecast)07.06.20171.31.7
Bloomberg Polls02.02.20171.11.5
The Economist Polls08.06.20171.41.7
Russian Economic Research Institutions
Centre for Development of Higher School of Economics (baselines scenario)15.05.20171.40.91.51.6
Centre for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting16.03.20170.9
Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy (baseline scenario)17.04.20171.21.8
Institute of National Economy Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences (inertial scenario)17.05.20171.51.62.4
Centre for Strategic Research (inertial scenario)11.04.20171.71.81.92.0
Centre for Strategic Research (current forecast)19.05.20171.2÷1.5---
Centre for Strategic Research (target scenario)01.06.20171.63.2--
International Economic Research Institutions
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw)16.03.20171.71.72.0
DIW Berlin22.06.20170.91.6
CESifo Group Munich20.06.20170.51.5
Kiel Institute for the World Economy15.06.20171.21.5--
Halle Institute for Economic Research09.06.20161.2
BOFIT (Bank of Finland)30.03.20171.51.51.5
German Council of Economic Experts (Sachverständigenrat)20.03.20171.41.8
International Banks, Investment Banks and Corporate Players
Economist Intelligence Unit14.06.20171.61.41.71.6
PwC14.06.20171.11.41.51.5
Morgan Stanley28.11.20161.21.11.11.8
JP Morgan21.09.20161.1
Bank of America Merrill Lynch13.12.20161.11.4
Deutsche Bank06.04.20171.6
ING Group09.02.20161.1
Unicredit Group09.01.20170.91.1
Raiffeisen Bank01.06.20171.01.5
Raiffeisen Bank (consensus)27.03.20171.11.5
BNP Paribas27.04.20171.81.4--
CommerzBank23.06.20171.32.0
Allianz Group13.01.20171.52.0
Euler Hermes22.06.20171.31.6
Berenberg Bank23.06.20171.32.1
Danske Bank31.03.20171.21.4
Nordea01.12.20161.11.3
SEB Group09.05.20171.11.51.9
Deka Group10.05.20171.21.4
DNB20.04.20171.41.51.51.5
Credit Suisse06.06.20161.7
Wells Fargo17.05.20171.32.0
Rabobank09.03.20171.01.2
COFACE21.03.20171.0
Russian Banks, Investment Banks and Corporate Players
Sberbank (baseline scenario)30.05.20171.51.01.2
Sberbank (current forecast)19.06.20171.1--
VneshEconomBank (VEB), baseline scenario03.05.20170.81.71.92.2
VTB bank01.03.20171.5
VTB 24 bank20.09.20161.5÷2.0
Alfa Bank26.01.20171.5
Renaissance Capital19.12.20161.6
BCS Financial Group14.04.20171.21.8--
UralSib Group17.05.20171.9---
Private Persons
Mr. Igor Shuvalov, Vice Prime Minister of Russia25.11.20161.0
Important note: within the sections on specific players below the most recent projections come first.



International Monetary Fund (IMF)



On May 19, 2017 IMF released Staff Concluding Statement of the 2017 Article IV Mission in the Russian Federation.[126] The document confirms the Russian GDP growth projection for 2017 at 1.4%, while the medium-term growth is indicated at the level of 1.5% p.a.

On May 11, 2017 IMF published the Regional Economic Outlook May 2017 (Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe. A Broadening Recovery).[127] The document features the Russian GDP growth projections for 2017-2018 at 1.4% for each year.

On April 18, 2017 IMF released World Economic Outlook April 2017 featuring the updated Russian GDP growth projections for 2017-2018 indicated at 1.4% for each year.[128] The GDP growth projections for 2019-2022 retained at 1.5% per annum.

On April 17, 2017 TASS news agency informed that IMF has revised GDP growth projections for Russia assuming 1.4% growth in 2017 and 2018 (undisclosed source in IMF).[129]

On March 14, 2017 IMF released Note on Global Prospects and Policy Challenges retaining GDP growth projections for Russia for 2017-2018 at 1.1% and 1.2%.[130]

On January 16, 2017 IMF released WEO update retaining previous GDP growth projections for Russia.[131] The Russian GDP is estimated to contract by 0.6% in 2016 and projected to grow by 1.1% in 2017 and 1.2% in 2018.

On November 29, 2016 IMF mission provided conclusions on the visit to Russia revising the Russian GDP contraction projection for 2016 to 0.6%.[132] The mission expects the Russian economy to start recovery in 2017 with the GDP growth rates projected at 1.1%.

On November 2, 2016 IMF issued regional economic outlook report for Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (Effective Government for Stronger Growth).[133] In the report the previous GDP growth projections have been confirmed at -0.8% in 2016 and +1.1% in 2017.

On October 3, 2016 IMF released the World Economic Outlook[134] with the Russian GDP growth projections at -0.8% in 2016 and +1.1% in 2017.[135]

On September 30, 2016 TASS information agency disclosed the updated Russian GDP growth projections of IMF to be officially released in the beginning of October 2016[136]. The new projections assume 0.8% GDP contraction in 2016 and 1.1% growth in 2017.

On July 19, 2016 IMF released World Economic Outlook Update July 2016 (Uncertainty in the Aftermath of the U.K. Referendum), where the Russian GDP growth projections for 2016-2017 were retained at -1.2% and +1.0%, correspondingly.[137]

On July 13, 2016 IMF issued Staff Report for the 2016 Article IV Consultation on the Russian Federation, where the revised GDP growth projections for 2016-2017 at -1.2% and +1.0%, correspondingly, have been officially disclosed.[138]

On July 11, 2016 TASS information agency cited undisclosed sources on revision of the Russian GDP contraction projections by IMF.[139] The new projection for 2016 assumes 1.2% GDP contraction (1.5% contraction was projected previously), while 2017 projection remained the same (+1.0% GDP growth).

On June 24, 2016 Mr. Gabriel di Bella, IMF Russia head, commented that the fund expects stabilisation of the Russian economy in 2016 and confirmed the IMF’s Russian GDP growth projection for 2017 at around 1.0%.[140]

On May 19, 2016 IMF revised the Russian macroeconomic forecast for 2016-2017 in Staff Concluding Statement of the 2016 Article IV Mission.[141] Referring to the document, the Russian GDP is projected to contract by 1.5% in 2016 (previous forecast: 1.8% contraction) with further growth by 1% in 2017 (previous forecast: 0.8% contraction). The growth in the following years “is likely to settle around 1.5%”.

On May 6, 2016 IMF’s Russian GDP forecast for 2018 have been updated to 1.0% in accordance with World Economic Outlook Database April 2016 edition.[142]

On April 25, 2016 IMF issued Regional Economic Outlook Update for the Middle East and Central Asia, and in the appropriate press-release the Fund confirmed the previously delivered projections of the Russian GDP growth for 2016-2017 at -1.8% and +0.8%, correspondingly.[143]

On April 12, 2016 IMF released World Economic Outlook for April 2016, where it provided the Russian GDP development projections for 2016-2017 at -1.8% and +0.8%, correspondingly.[144]

On April 6, 2016 TASS news agency reported that IMF revised GDP developments projections for Russia to -1.8% for 2016 and +0.8% for 2017 (citing undisclosed source in IMF).[145] The updated forecast is planned to be officially presented on April 12, 2016.

On January 19, 2016 IMF released World Economic Outlook (WEO) update[146], where Russian GDP forecast for 2016 was worsened to -1% primarily due to deteriorating situation in the world oil market, while GDP contraction estimate for 2015 was slightly softened to -3.7%.


Russian GDP Projections by IMF until 2020, % (January 2016)


Source: International Monetary Fund.

Forecasts made in 2015:

On November 23, 2015 IMF issued statement on the visit to the Russian Federation, in which GDP development projections for 2015 and 2016 were confirmed at -3.8% and -0.6%, correspondingly.[147]

On October 6, 2015 IMF released October revision of the World Economic Outlook with updated Russian GDP growth projections at -3.8% for 2015 and -0.6% for 2016.[148]

On September 29, 2015 the mass media announced IMF revisiting Russian GDP dynamics projections for 2015 and 2016 to be at -3.8% and -0.6%, correspondingly.[149]

In the beginning of August 2015 IMF issued the press release and staff report on 2015 Article IV consultation with confirmation of World Economic Outlook Update GDP forecasts.[150] Sharp drop in oil prices and sanctions with resulting contraction in domestic demand weighed down by falling real wages, higher cost of capital and weakened confidence are stated to be the major reasons for 2015 recession (3.4% forecasted GDP contraction). The mid-term development prospects are considered as quite moderate (GDP growth not exceeding 1.5% pa) with geopolitical tensions being the major risks for outlook.

In July 2015 IMF published World Economic Outlook Update, where the Russian GDP dynamics forecast for 2015-2016 have been slightly improved as compared to April’s survey to -3.4% and 0.2%, correspondingly.[151] According to Mr. Olivier Blanchard, the chief economist at IMF, that was due to “some improvement in commodity prices and confidence”.[152]

In April’s World Economic Outlook IMF provided dramatic downward revision of Russian GDP dynamics for 2015 and 2016 with forecasted fall at -3.8% in 2015 (earlier revision of October 2014: +0.5%) and further contraction by -1.1% in 2016. The named major reasons for 2015 recession are “the oil price slump, tighter financial conditions, international sanctions, and weaker confidence”. Referring to the report, 2016 contraction “is projected to ease to 1.1 percent as falling inflation and some import substitution contribute to a modest recovery in demand”.[153]

Forecasts made in 2014:

In IMF’s World Economic Outlook dated October 2014 the Russian GDP dynamics for 2015 were projected at slightly positive level of +0.5%.[154]



The World Bank



On June 5, 2017 the World Bank published Global Economic Prospects June 2017 report confirming the previous Russian GDP growth projections (1.3% in 2017 and 1.4% in 2018-2019).[155]

On May 23, 2017 the World Bank released Russia Economic Report #37 (“From Recession to Recovery”) retaining the Russian GDP growth projections for 2017-2019 (1.3%, 1.4% and 1.4%, correspondingly).[156]

On April 20, 2017 the World Bank released the Country Snapshot Russia featuring the Russian GDP growth projections for 2017-2019.[157] The Russian GDP is expected to grow by 1.3% in 2017 and 1.4% in 2018-2019 under the corresponding average crude oil prices at USD 55 per barrel in 2017, USD 60 per barrel in 2018 and USD 61.5 per barrel in 2019.

On January 10, 2017 the World Bank released the new Global Economic Prospects report featuring the updated macroeconomic projections for Russia for 2017-2019.[158] Referring to the document, the Russian GDP is estimated to contract by 0.6% in 2016 with further growth by 1.5% in 2017, 1.7% in 2018 and 1.8% in 2019.

On November 9, 2016 Russia Economic Report #36 featuring updated projections for the country was published by the World Bank.[159] According to revised projections, the Russian GDP is expected to contract by 0.6% in 2016 with further moderate growth at 1.5% in 2017 and 1.7% in 2018. The corresponding average annual crude oil price is assumed to be at USD 43.3 per barrel in 2016, USD 55.2 per barrel in 2017 and USD 59.9 per barrel in 2018.

On June 8, 2016 the World Bank released Global Economic Prospects report with updated Russian GDP projections for 2016-2018.[160] The document confirms the Bank’s previous forecasts with the Russian GDP expected to contract by 1.2% in 2016 and further growth by 1.4% in 2017 and 1.8% in 2018. The average annual crude oil price is projected at USD 41 per barrel in 2016 and USD 50 per barrel in 2017.

On May 10, 2016 Russia Monthly Economic Developments report was released by the World Bank.[161] The Bank revised its oil price projections for 2016 and 2017 to USD 41 per barrel and USD 50 per barrel, correspondingly. As a result of better oil price projections, the Russian GDP growth forecast was also improved to -1.2% for 2016 and +1.4% for 2017.

On April 6, 2016 the World Bank published Russia Economic Report (#35) called “The Long Journey to Recovery”.[162] In the report the World Bank presented 3 scenarios of the Russian economy developments in 2016-2018 that primarily base on the crude oil price dynamics.


The World Bank: Projections of the Russian GDP Dynamics in 2016-2018 (April 2016, Baseline Scenario)


Source: World Bank.


The World Bank: Projections of the Average Crude Oil Price Dynamics in 2016-2018 (April 2016, Baseline Scenario)


Source: World Bank.

On January 6, 2016 the World Bank released Global Economic Prospects report[163], where it confirmed its previous GDP growth projections augmented by 2018 GDP growth projection at +1.5%.


The World Bank: Russian GDP Projections for 2015-2018 (January 2016)


Source: World Bank.

On December 16, 2015 the World Bank provided revised projections on the Russian economy developments in 2015-2017.[164] The GDP forecast relies on oil prices dynamics projections to be at USD 51.9 per barrel in 2015, USD 49.4 per barrel in 2016 and USD 52.7 per barrel in 2017. The bank also pointed at substantial risks of further projections worsening.


The World Bank: Russian GDP Projections for 2015-2017 (December 2015)


Source: World Bank.

On September 30, 2015 the World Bank issued Report on the Russian Economy #34 with new economy developments projections.[165]

Under the base scenario, the average crude oil price will amount to USD 53 per barrel in 2015 and 2016 with further slight increase to USD 55 per barrel in 2017.

The pessimistic scenario assumes the average crude oil price to be at the level of USD 50 per barrel in 2015 with further drop to USD 40 per barrel in 2016 and 2017.

According to optimistic scenario the average crude oil price for 2015 will be at the level of USD 58 per barrel with further increase to USD 63.6 per barrel in 2016 and USD 67.1 per barrel in 2017.

The World Bank: Russian GDP Growth Projections, % change year-over-year (September 2015)

-201520162017
Optimistic scenario-3.2%1.3%1.7%
Base scenario-3.8%-0.6%1.5%
Pessimistic scenario-4.3%-2.8%0%

Source: The World Bank

In June 2015 the World Bank improved forecast for the Russian economy developments projecting GDP growth to contract in 2015 by -2.7% with further increase by 0.7 percent in 2016 The change is mostly explained by stabilization in global oil prices with their corrected projection at USD 58.0 per barrel for 2015 and of USD 63.6 per barrel for 2016.[166]

In May’s Russia Monthly Economic Developments survey the World Bank kept GDP projection for 2015 at -3.8%, based on an oil price projection of USD 53 per barrel. A decline of -0.3% was expected for 2016 with an average oil price of USD 57 per barrel.[167]

In February 2015 the Russian GDP forecast was revised to -3.8% based on corrected oil price projection of USD 53 per barrel. For 2016 the World Bank provided GDP contraction forecast of -0.3% given projected oil price at USD 57 per barrel.[168]

In January 2015 the World Bank lowered 2015 GDP projection for Russia to -2.9% (earlier revision: -1.5%) due to negative correction of oil price projections (USD 65.5 per barrel compared to USD 70.0 per barrel projected earlier) and additional policy rates hike by the Russian Central Bank to 17% in December (compared to 10.5 percent assumed in the previous forecast).[169]



OECD



On June 7, 2017 OECD published the Global Economic Outlook June 2016 featuring the updated projections for Russia.[170] The Russian GDP growth is projected at +1.4% in 2017 and +1.6% in 2018.

On November 28, 2016 OECD released the updated Economic Outlook with the revised Russian GDP growth projections for 2016-2018.[171] The Russian GDP is projected to contract by 0.8% in 2016 demonstrating lacklustre growth in the following years (0.8% in 2017 and 1.0% in 2018).

On June 1, 2016 OECD published OECD Economic Outlook June 2016 featuring revised Russian GDP growth projections for 2016 and 2017.[172] Referring to the document, the Russian GDP is expected to contract by 1.7% in 2016 with further moderate growth by 0.5% in 2017.

Forecasts made in 2015:

On November 9, 2015 OECD released new version of OECD Economic Outlook.[173] The outlook projected Russian GDP contraction at 4.0% in 2015 with the further slight deterioration in 2016 (-0.4%) and moderate growth at 1.7% in 2017.[174]

In June 2015 OECD provided new revision of Economic Outlook and Interim Global Economic Assessment, where Russian GDP growth projections were at -3.1% for 2015 and 0.8% for 2016.[175] Forecasted improvement is linked to “recovery of oil prices, better international relations achieved in 1st half of 2015 and the success of import substitution programmes”.[176]

Forecasts made in 2014:

In November 2014 Russian GDP growth was projected by OECD at nearly flat rate of 0.033% in 2015 with minor improvement of 1.637% in 2015.[177]



OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries)



On June 13, 2017 OPEC released the oil market report for June 2017 retaining the Russian GDP growth projection for 2017 at 1.2%.[178]

On May 11, 2017 OPEC published the oil market report for May 2017 with the Russian GDP growth projection for 2017 staying at 1.2%.[179]

On April 12, 2017 OPEC released the monthly Oil Market Report for April 2017.[180] The Russian GDP growth projection for the year was corrected to 1.2%.

On March 14, 2017 the new issue of OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report was released featuring the Russian GDP growth projection for 2017 retained at 1.0%.[181]

On February 13, 2017 OPEC released the new issue of Monthly Oil Market Report with the Russian GDP growth estimate for 2016 remaining at -0.5% and 2017 projection corrected from +0.9% to 1.0%.[182]

On January 18, 2017 OPEC published the new issue of the Monthly Oil Market Report.[183] Referring to the paper, the Russian GDP contraction for 2016 is estimated at 0.5%, while 0.9% growth is projected for 2017.

On December 14, 2016 OPEC released the Monthly Oil Market Report for December 2016 with the Russian GDP growth projections for 2016-2017 retained at -0.6% and +0.8%, correspondingly.[184]

On November 11, 2016 the new issue of Monthly Oil Market Report was released with the updated GDP growth projections for 2016 and 2017 indicated at -0.6% and +0.8%, correspondingly.[185]

On November 9, 2016 OPEC published World Oil Outlook 2016[186] featuring medium-term and long-term Russian GDP projections (Reference Case). Referring to the report, the GDP is expected to contract by 1.0% in 2016 with further moderate growth (0.7% in 2017, 1.4% in 2018, 1.7% in 2019, 2.0% in 2020 and 2.2% in 2021). The GDP CAGR for 2015-2021 is projected at 1.2%. The long-term outlook envisages GDP CAGR at 2.3% in 2021-2030 and 2.1% in 2030-2040. The GDP CAGR for 2015-2040 is projected at 1.9%.

On October 12, 2016 the OPEC’s monthly oil market report was released with the revised Russian GDP growth projections for 2016-2017 at -0.6% and +0.7%, correspondingly.[187]

On September 12, 2016 OPEC published Oil Market Report for September 2016 featuring Russian GDP projections with forecasted growth rates staying at previous level of -0.8% in 2016 and +0.7% in 2017.[188]

On August 10, 2016 OPEC released new Monthly Oil Market Report with the Russian GDP contraction projection for 2016 revised to 0.8%.[189] OPEC’s GDP growth projection for 2017 remained at 0.7%.

On July 12, 2016 OPEC published Monthly Oil Market Report, where the Russian GDP contraction projection for 2016 was corrected to 1.0% and 2017 projection was announced at 0.7%.[190]

On June 13, 2016 new issue of the Monthly Oil Market Report was released by OPEC.[191] The Russian GDP contraction projection for 2016 stayed unchanged at 1.1%.

On May 13, 2016 OPEC released May issue of the Oil Market Report with the Russian GDP contraction projection for 2016 remaining unchanged at 1.1%.[192]

On April 13, 2016 OPEC published April issue of the Oil Market Report with the Russian GDP contraction projection for 2016 remaining unchanged at 1.1%.[193]

On March 14, 2016 in the new monthly issue of the Oil Market Report OPEC corrected the Russian GDP contraction projection to 1.1% for 2016 (-0.8% change as compared to previous forecast).[194]

On February 10, 2016 OPEC released monthly oil market report with substantially revised GDP projection for Russia for 2016 at -0.3% (previous report assumed +0.3% growth).[195] GDP contraction for 2015 was also revised to 3.7% based on available statistics.

On January 18, 2016 OPEC issued new monthly oil market report, where GDP projections for 2015 and 2016 remained unchanged at -3.2% and +0.3%, correspondingly.[196]

On December 11, 2015 in the monthly oil market report OPEC retained Russian GDP projections for 2015 and 2016 at -3.2% and +0.3%, correspondingly.[197]

On November 12, 2015 Russian GDP growth forecast for 2016 was worsened once more to +0.3%, while GDP contraction projections for 2015 remained the same at -3.2%.[198]

On October 12, 2015 OPEC once again worsened projections of the Russian GDP dynamics for 2015 and 2016 to -3.2% and +0.6%, correspondingly.[199]

On September 14, 2015 OPEC worsened Russian GDP growth projections for 2015 and 2016 to -3.0% and +0.8%, correspondingly, due to continuing economic deceleration.[200]

On August 11, 2015 OPEC released new Monthly Oil Market Report in which Russian GDP growth projections for 2015-2016 remained unchanged (-2.8% and 0.9%, correspondingly).[201]

On July 13, 2015 in the new version of Monthly Oil Market Report OPEC improved GDP projections for Russia to -2.8% contraction in 2015 (earlier revision: -3.0%) and further slight growth by 0.9% in 2016 The reason for correction had been “significant cut in imports, combined with a much faster depreciation of the rouble compared to the rise of inflation”.[202]

On June 10, 2015 OPEC’s forecast for Russian GDP dynamics for 2015 have been positively corrected to -3.0% (earlier revision: -3.2%).[203]

In March 2015 OPEC changed Russian GDP growth forecast to -3.2% for 2015 (earlier revision: -2.4%), and that projection remained intact until June 2015.[204]

In February 2015 OPEC projected GDP of Russia to fall by -2.4% in 2015 (earlier revision: 0% flat developments for 2015).[205]

OPEC’s January 2015 forecast assumed flat GDP developments (0%) in Russia for 2015 (December 2014 revision: 0.7% growth).[206]



UN Development Policy and Analysis Division (DESA)



On May 16, 2017 DESA released World Economic Situation and Prospects 2017 (Update as of mid-2017) featuring the revised Russian GDP projections for 2017-2018 at 1.5% and 1.5%, correspondingly.[207]

On January 17, 2017 DESA published World Economic Situation and Prospects 2017 study.[208] Referring to the paper, the Russian GDP contraction for 2016 is estimated at 0.8%. The GDP is projected to grow by 1.0% in 2017 and 1.5% in 2018.

On May 12, 2016 DESA released World Economic Situation and Prospects as of mid-2016.[209] The report features revised Russian GDP growth projections for 2016-2017 with the worsened growth forecasts at -1.9% and 0.6%, correspondingly.

On January 20, 2016 DESA published full version of the report World Economic Situation and Prospects 2016.[210] The projected dynamics of the Russian GDP for 2015-2017 have not been changed as compared to December 2015 version (-3.8%, 0.0% and 1.2%, correspondingly).

On December 10, 2015 UN DESA released 1st chapter of World Economic Situation and Prospects 2016 report where it projects the Russian GDP dynamics for 2015, 2016 and 2017 at -3.8%, 0.0% and 1.2%, correspondingly.[211]



European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD)



On May 10, 2017 EBRD released the updated regional economic prospects report with the Russian GDP growth projections for 2017-2018 indicated at +1.2% and +1.4%, correspondingly.[212]

On November 3, 2016 EBRD issued the new report on regional economic prospects in EBRD countries of operations.[213] The report features the Russian GDP growth projections for 2016 and 2017 that were indicated at -0.6% and +1.2%, correspondingly.

On May 11, 2016 EBRD released its Regional Economic Prospects report, where it retained previous Russian GDP contraction projection for 2016 at 1.2% and provided also GDP growth forecast for 2017 at +1.0%.[214]

On November 5, 2015 EBRD released new GDP projections for Russia.[215] Referring to those projections, GDP was expected to contract by 4.2% in 2015 with further contraction by 1.2% in 2016 due to “consumption and investments decline in the face of significantly lower oil prices, which compound structural problems and the effect of economic sanctions”. The earlier projections made in September 2015 assumed 4.5% GDP contraction in 2015.



European Commission



On May 11, 2017 European Commission published Spring 2017 Economic Forecast with the updated Russian macroeconomic projections for 2017-2018.[216] According to the forecast, the Russian GDP is expected to grow by 1.2% in 2017 and 1.4% in 2018.

On February 13, 2017 the European Commission released the Winter Economic Forecast featuring the economy developments projections for Russia for 2017-2018.[217] Referring to the document, the Russian GDP is projected to grow by 0.8% in 2017 and 1.1% in 2018. The GDP contraction for 2016 was estimated at 0.6%.

On November 9, 2016 the European Commission published European Economic Forecast for Autumn 2016 with updated Russian GDP growth projections.[218] According to the paper, the Russian GDP is expected to contract by 1.0% in 2016 with further slight growth by 0.6% in 2017 and 0.8% in 2018.

On May 4, 2016 the European Commission released Spring 2016 Economic Forecast that features updated Russian GDP growth projections for 2016-2017.[219] Referring to the forecast, the Russian GDP is expected to contract by 1.9% in 2016 with further moderate growth by 0.5% in 2017.

On February 4, 2016 European Commission released Winter 2016 Economic Forecast report, where the Russian GDP growth projections for 2016 and 2017 were revised to -1.2% and +0.3%, correspondingly.[220] The previous issue of the report (Autumn 2015) assumed 0.5% contraction in 2016 with further slight growth at 1% in 2017.[221]



Eurasian Development Bank



On May 24, 2017 EDB published the macroeconomic review for May 2017 featuring the updated Russian GDP growth projections for 2017-2019 at +1.1%, +1.4% and +1.6%, correspondingly.[222]

On April 11, 2017 the Bank released the monthly macroeconomic review for March 2017 with the GDP growth projections for 2017-2019 staying at +0.8%, +1.4% and +1.4%, correspondingly.[223]

On March 13, 2017 the bank published the monthly macroeconomic review for February 2017, where the Russian GDP growth projections for 2017-2019 were retained at +0.8%, +1.4% and +1.4%, correspondingly.[224]

On January 30, 2017 the bank released Macroeconomic Review January 2017[225] featuring the Russian GDP contraction estimate for 2016 at 0.6% and updated GDP growth projections for 2017-2019 at +0.8%, +1.4% and +1.4%, correspondingly.

On October 14, 2016 Eurasian Development Bank published Macroeconomic Review October 2016[226] with the Russian GDP growth projections for 2016-2018 corrected to -0.7%, 0.3% and 1.2%, correspondingly. The average annual Urals crude oil price for 2016-2018 is projected at USD 41.4, USD 49.6 and USD 52.6 per barrel, correspondingly.

On August 2, 2016 the bank released macroeconomic review on the participating countries for the period of 2016-2018.[227] Referring to the review, the Russian GDP is projected to contract by 1.0% in 2016 with further moderate growth by 0.7% in 2017 and 1.2% in 2018.



Ministry of Economic Development of Russia



On June 26, 2017, Mr. Maxim Oreshkin, the Russian Minister of Economic Development, confirmed the Ministry’s GDP growth projection for 2017 at 2.0% at the Government’s meeting on key budgetary indicators for 2018-2020.[228]

On June 15, 2017 Mr. Maxim Oreshkin, the Russian Minister of Economic Development, commented to the press that he expects facilitation of the quarterly GDP growth rates in Russia projecting them to reach 2% already by Autumn 2017.[229] He also demonstrated full confidence that the GDP growth for 2017 will reach 2.0%.

On June 6, 2017 the Ministry’s projections under the baseline scenario were confirmed in the materials supporting the proposed amendments to the law on the federal budget for 2017-2019.[230]

On April 6, 2017 Mr. Maxim Oreshkin, the Russian Minister of Economic Development, presented the Ministry’s updated macroeconomic forecast.[231] The forecast envisages 2 scenarios under the same assumptions on the annual average Urals crude oil price (USD 45.6 per barrel in 2017, USD 40.8 per barrel in 2018, USD 41.6 per barrel in 2019 and USD 42.4 per barrel in 2020).

Selected Indicators of the Baseline and Target Scenarios of the Russian Economy Developments Until 2020

IndicatorsBaseline scenarioTarget scenario
201820192020201820192020
Employed population, million people68.568.468.268.468.768.9
Share of investment in GDP, %17.417.617.717.718.619.9
Investment growth, %2.22.02.13.96.89.8
Exports excl. O&G sector, % growth4.53.02.24.55.06.0
Imports of investment goods, % growth4.05.35.44.67.710.5
Labour productivity growth, %1.61.81.91.82.12.9

Source: Russian Ministry of Economic Development.[232]

On March 16, 2017 Mr. Maxim Oreshkin, the Russian Minister of Economic Development, commented to the press that the Ministry expects the Russian GDP growth to be at 2.0% in 2017.[233]

On January 30, 2017 the Ministry published weekly economic report with the GDP contraction estimate for 2016 indicated at 0.6%.[234]

On December 26, 2016 the Ministry released monthly economic report with the GDP contraction projection for 2016 indicated at 0.5%.[235]

On December 21, 2016 Izvestia newspaper reported that the Ministry revised the GDP contraction projection for 2016 from 0.6% to 0.5% citing Mr. Alexey Vedev, the Deputy Minister of Economic Development.[236]

On November 25, 2016 the Ministry of Economic Development released Forecast of Social and Economic Development of Russia for 2017-2019 confirming its projections under scenarios disclosed on October 28, 2016 (see below).[237]

On November 8, 2016 Mr. Alexey Ulyukaev, the Russian Minister of Economic Development, announced at presentation for Italian entrepreneurs that the Ministry expects the Russian GDP to grow by 1.0% in 2017.[238]

On October 28, 2016 the Russian Government delivered the draft law “On the Federal Budget for 2017 and the Planning Period of 2018 and 2019” to the State Duma. The package of provided documents comprised comparison of scenarios of social and economic developments of Russia for 2017-2019.[239] The following 3 scenarios were presented:

GDP Projections of the Russian Government as of October 28, 2016

-20152016201720182019
Urals crude oil price, USD per barrel-----
Baseline scenario51.241404040
Baseline+ scenario51.241485255
Target scenario51.241485255
GDP, RUR billion-----
Baseline scenario8080482815868069229698860
Baseline+ scenario80804828158872994986102069
Target scenario80804828158908196230105118
GDP growth rates, % y/y-----
Baseline scenario-3.7-0.60.61.72.1
Baseline+ scenario-3.7-0.61.11.82.4
Target scenario-3.7-0.61.83.04.4

Source: the State Duma of the Russian Federation.[240]

On October 18, 2016 the Ministry reportedly corrected its macroeconomic projections for 2017-2019 once more presumably due to intention to demonstrate better planned budgetary characteristics.[241] According to the updated projections, the Russian GDP is expected to grow by 0.6% in 2017, 1.7% in 2018 and 2.1% in 2019 (projections comply with those made by the Ministry of Finance in September 2016). The average annual crude oil price used in projections remained at USD 40 per barrel for the whole period.

On October 12, 2016 the Ministry of Economic Development reportedly delivered the final version of its macroeconomic projections for 2017-2019 to the Russian Government with no further adjustments expected.[242] The forecast envisages two scenarios of the economy developments[243]. The baseline scenario assumes the average annual crude oil price staying at USD 40 per barrel in 2017-2019. Under this scenario the Russian GDP is expected to grow by 0.2% in 2017, 0.9% in 2018 and 1.2% in 2019.

On October 11, 2016 the mass media cited the current projections of the Ministry for 2017 that assume the Russian GDP growth at 0.4% in 2017.[244]

On September 22, 2016 gazeta.ru[245] and Vedomosti newspaper[246] provided the Ministry’s projections of the key macroeconomic indicators for 2016-2019 after the dedicated Government’s meeting that took place on September 21. The baseline scenario of the forecast assumes GDP to contract by 0.6% in 2016 with further moderate growth by 0.6% in 2017, 1.7% in 2018 and 2.1% in 2019. The corresponding crude oil price projections are USD 41 per barrel for 2016 and USD 40 per barrel in 2017-2019.

On September 2, 2016 Mr. Alexey Ulyukaev commented to the mass media that the Ministry “slightly worsened” GDP contraction projection for 2016 to 0.5-0.6%.[247]

On August 30, 2016 the Russian Ministry of Economic Development revised its GDP forecast for 2016 to 0.6% contraction as compared to 0.2% contraction under the official forecast made in April 2016 (citing Vedomosti newspaper that had access to the draft of social and economic projections delivered to the Ministry of Finance for discussion).[248] The projected average annual Urals crude oil price was corrected to USD 41 per barrel for 2016 (USD 40 per barrel under April’s projection).

The GDP projections for 2017-2019 under the baseline scenario have also been revised to +0.6% in 2017, 1.7% in 2018 and 2.1% in 2019 assuming the crude staying at the level of USD 40 per barrel.

The Ministry also prepared a “baseline plus” scenario assuming the optimistic crude oil price developments in 2017-2019 (USD 50 per barrel in 2017 and USD 55 per barrel in 2018-2019) that is proposed to be a base for budgetary projections.

On June 22, 2016 Mr. Alexey Vedev, the Russian Deputy Minister of Economic Development, commented that the Ministry’s present baseline forecast of the Russian GDP growth in 2017-2019 is 1.9-2.2% a year.[249]

On June 17, 2016 in the course of St. Petersburg International Economic Forum Mr. Alexey Ulyukaev, the Russian Minister of Economic Development, commented that he expects GDP growth at the level of 0.2-0.3% in 2016 under the average annual Urals crude oil price at USD 43 per barrel.[250]

On May 6, 2016 the Ministry published Scenarios and Key Indicators of Forecast of Social and Economic Development of the Russian Federation and Maximum Limits of Prices (Tariffs) for Services of Infrastructure Sector's Companies for 2017, 2018 and 2019[251] (including Appendices[252]). Together with key parameters of baseline and conservative scenarios, the Ministry also disclosed parameters of so-called “target scenario”, which assumes reaching stable economic growth with rates not below the world average, reaching inflation rates of 4% per annum by 2017 and productivity growth by 5% in the medium term. In order to execute the scenario, the Ministry proposes “changing of orientation of economy to investment model while restraining growth of consumption and social obligations of the state and the business in the first years of the period of forecasting”. “Decrease of inflation rates to 4% by 2017 assumes substantial restrain of internal demand and primarily demand from the side of households”.

The target scenario assumes the average annual Urals crude oil price to stay at USD 40 per barrel for all period of forecasting (2016-2019). The Russian GDP is expected to contract by 0.2% in 2016 with further growth by 0.4% in 2017, 2.9% in 2018 and 4.5% in 2019.

On April 29, 2016 the Ministry released approved Russian GDP growth projections until 2019.[253]

On April 21, 2016 there took place a presentation of the Ministry’s macroeconomic projections for 2016-2019 to the Russian Government.[254] Referring to the announced baseline scenario, the Russian GDP is expected to contract by 0.2% in 2016. Specifically, the Ministry estimates contraction for 1Q 2016 at 1.4% and projects further contraction in 2Q 2016 (-0.6%) and 3Q 2016 (0.1%) that will be replaced by growth in 4Q 2016 (+1.2%).

On April 14, 2016 the Russian Ministry of Economic Development delivered the revised macroeconomic forecast to the Russian Government.[255] The forecast features baseline, conservative and target scenarios of economic development.

On April 13, 2016 Mr. Alexey Ulyukaev commented that the baseline scenario of the Ministry’s macroeconomic forecast assumes 0.3% GDP growth in 2016.[256] The projected average annual crude oil price is USD 40 per barrel in 2016, USD 45 per barrel in 2017 and USD 50 per barrel in 2018.

On April 13, 2016 Mr. Alexey Ulyukaev, the Russian Minister of Economic Development, announced new Ministry’s macroeconomic forecast to the press.[257] According to the baseline scenario of the forecast, Russia will face flat (nearly 0%) GDP growth in 2016, 1.5% GDP growth in 2017 and 2.0-2.5% GDP growth in 2018-2019. The assumed average annual crude oil price is USD 40 per barrel in 2016 and USD 45 per barrel in 2017. The new forecast is supposed to be used for correction of budgetary projections for 2016-2017.

On March 22, 2016 Mr. Alexey Ulyukaev, the Russian Minister of Economic Development, commented to the press that he expects GDP contraction for 2016 in the range from 0.0% to -0.5% under the average annual crude oil price at USD 40 per barrel.[258]

On March 16, 2016 Mr. Alexey Ulyukaev commented at the meeting in the State Duma that he believes in positive GDP developments already in 2016 with possibility to reach 0.7% growth stipulated by the existing budgetary projections.[259] He also commented that he expects the Russian economy to experience extensive growth in investment in 2017 that shall create ground for GDP growth rates at 1.5-2.5% for the year.[260]

On February 8, 2016 Kommersant newspaper released new version of budgetary calculations of the Ministry.[261] The base scenario assumes Urals crude oil price at USD 40 per barrel in 2016 with corresponding projections of GDP contraction at 0.8% and budget deficit at 5.1%. The GDP contraction projection under conservative scenario (Urals crude oil price at USD 25 per barrel) was not disclosed.

On January 16, 2016 Mr. Alexey Ulyukaev released preliminary estimate of the Russian GDP contraction in 2015 at 3.9% provided to him by the Russian State Statistics Service, while his personal estimate is in the range of 3.8-3.9%.[262] He also commented that in case average annual crude oil price will be at around USD 40 per barrel in 2016, he would expect GDP contraction for the coming year to be less than 1%, and in case the oil price will be as low as USD 25 per barrel, the GDP slump is not likely to be so dramatic as the one observed in 2015.

On January 15, 2016 Vedomosti newspaper published summary of the new macroeconomic forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development.[263] Referring to base scenario of the forecast, the GDP is projected to contract by 0.8% in 2016 under the average annual Urals crude oil price at USD 40 per barrel.

On December 9, 2015 Mr. Ulyukaev confirmed the Ministry’s projection of the Russian GDP contraction for 2015 at 3.7%.[264]

On December 7, 2015 Mr. Alexey Ulyukaev, the Russian Minister of Economic Development, announced that he expects the Russian GDP contraction for 2015 to be at 3.7% with high level of probability.[265] Mr. Ulyukaev also commented that in case massive structural and institutional changes are not implemented by the state, until 2020 the Russian economy growth rates are likely to be at 1.5-2% pa that is below the world’s average.

On October 7, 2015 the mass media announced that the Ministry elaborated new Russian economy development forecast with expected 3.9% GDP contraction in 2015, slight 0.7% restoration in 2016 with further 1.9% GDP growth in 2017 and 2.4% growth in 2018.[266]


Ministry of Economic Development of Russia: GDP Projections for 2015-2018 (October 2015)


Source: RIA Novosti.

On September 30, 2015 Mr. Alexey Ulyukaev, the Russian Minister of Economic Development, announced to the press[267] that he expects GDP contraction at 3.8% in 2015 with further slight growth at 0.7% in 2016 at average annual oil price at USD 50 per barrel. He also mentioned support of investment as one of the key state policy directions aiming to facilitate economic growth.

On September 22, 2015 at the meeting dedicated to budget projections the Ministry of Economic Development presented new revision of scenarios of the Russian economy development over 2016-2018 with the focus on so-called “target scenario”.[268]

On September 16, 2015 Mr. Alexei Ulyukaev, while commenting on cumulative GDP contraction for January-August, 2015 (3.9%) assumed that the overall 2015 contraction can reach the same level that is above previous forecasts.[269]

On September 9, 2015 the final version of Key Assumptions of Forecast of Social and Economic Development of the Russian Federation for 2016-2018 prepared by the Ministry was announced by mass media.[270] The document is supposed to be used in the state budgeting process. Referring to the press, the base scenario of the Ministry projects Russian GDP to contract by 3.6% in 2015 (i.e. actually assuming the extremum point of the current crisis passed in June-July 2015) with further 2016 GDP growth at 0.9%. The projections rely on the average annual oil price at USD 50 per barrel in 2015 and 2016, USD 55 per barrel in 2017 and USD 60 per barrel in 2018.

On September 7, 2015 Mr. Alexei Ulyukaev, the Russian Minister of Economic Development, announced the projected GDP growth for 2016 to be less than 1% in case of an average annual oil price for 2016 at USD 50 per barrel.[271] That announcement followed announcement of Mr. Anton Siluanov, the Russian Minister of Finance, on intention to use mentioned oil price as key assumption for 2016 budget drafting.

On August 25, 2015 Mr. Alexei Ulyukaev, the Russian Minister of Economic Development, announced revision of GDP projections with new GDP contraction forecast at 3.3% for 2015 and further 1-2% growth in 2016 (against previous projections of 2.8% contraction for 2015 and 2.3% growth for 2016).[272] The major reasons for revision had been substantial slump in oil prices with Brent trading in the range of USD 40-45 per barrel, rout on Chinese stock market and related disturbances in the world market resulting in fast deterioration of rouble in the end of August 2015.

On June 19, 2015 Mr. Alexei Ulyukaev, the Russian Minister of Economic Development, confirmed the relevance of 2.8% GDP projection for 2015.[273]

In May 2015 the Ministry proposed two scenarios of economic development for 2015-2018. The base scenario assumes GDP contraction of -2.8% in 2015 given the average annual Urals oil price at USD 50 per barrel, 2.3% GDP growth for both 2016 and 2017 (oil prices at USD 60 and USD 65 per barrel, correspondingly) and further 2.4% growth in 2018 (oil price at USD 70 per barrel). The optimistic scenario assumes GDP contraction of -2.5% in 2015 given the average annual Urals oil price at USD 60 per barrel, 3.1% GDP growth for 2016 (oil price at USD 70 per barrel), 2.7% growth in 2017 (oil price at USD 80 per barrel) and further 3.3% growth in 2018 (oil price at USD 90 per barrel).[274]


GDP Projections by the Russian Ministry of Economic Development, base scenario (May 2015)


Source: Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation.

In February 2015 the Ministry published Forecast of Social and Economic Developments of the Russian Federation for 2015, where GDP contraction was projected at -3.0% for 2015 given the annual average oil price forecast at USD 50 per barrel.[275]



Ministry of Finance of Russia



On March 20, 2017 Mr. Anton Siluanov, the Russian Minister of Finance, commented to the press that the Ministry projects the Russian GDP in the range of 1.5-2.0% in 2017.[276]

On October 28, 2016 the Russian Government delivered the draft law “On the Federal Budget for 2017 and the Planning Period of 2018 and 2019” to the State Duma. The package of provided documents comprised comparison of scenarios of social and economic developments of Russia for 2017-2019.[277] The following 3 scenarios were presented:

GDP Projections of the Russian Government as of October 28, 2016

-20152016201720182019
Urals crude oil price, USD per barrel-----
Baseline scenario51.241404040
Baseline+ scenario51.241485255
Target scenario51.241485255
GDP, RUR billion-----
Baseline scenario8080482815868069229698860
Baseline+ scenario80804828158872994986102069
Target scenario80804828158908196230105118
GDP growth rates, % y/y-----
Baseline scenario-3.7-0.60.61.72.1
Baseline+ scenario-3.7-0.61.11.82.4
Target scenario-3.7-0.61.83.04.4

Source: the State Duma of the Russian Federation.[278]

On September 5, 2016 the Ministry of Finance provided the budgetary revenues projections under the baseline scenario[279] assuming 0.6% GDP contraction in 2016 with further growth by 0.6% in 2017, 1.7% in 2018 and 2.1% in 2019. The average annual crude oil price is expected at USD 41 per barrel in 2016 and USD 40 per barrel in 2017-2019.

On February 15, 2016 Vedomosti newspaper published key indicators of the Ministry’s internal projections on economic developments of Russia until 2030.[280] The conservative (inertial) scenario assumes that no significant reforms are implemented, and there are no substantial changes as it comes to the structure of the budget. Under this scenario the annual average oil prices are expected to be in the range of USD 40-USD 52.8 per barrel until 2030, with the real price considering inflation staying at USD 40 per barrel. GDP is expected to contract by 0.8% in 2016 with further slight growth by 1.0% in 2017 and 1.4% in 2018. GDP projections for 2019-2030 assume GDP growth staying in the range of 1.0-1.3% per annum reflecting long-term stagnation of the Russian economy.


Ministry of Finance: GDP Growth Projections until 2020 (February 2016)


Source: Vedomosti.

On September 29, 2015 the Ministry presented draft of amendments to federal law “On Federal Budget for 2015 and planned period of 2016 and 2017”. Referring to explanatory note to the draft[281], GDP is forecasted to contract by 3.9% in 2015. The average annual Urals oil price is expected at USD 53 per barrel.

On July 9, 2015 Mr. Maxim Oreshkin, Deputy Minister of Finance, announced that the Ministry projects GDP contraction in Russia ranging from 2.0% to 2.5% in 2015.[282]

On June 15, 2015 Mr. Anton Siluanov, the Russian Minister of Finance, stated that the Ministry expects GDP contraction in 2015 to be limited by 2 - 2.5%.[283]



The Central Bank of Russia



On June 16, 2017 the Russian Central Bank cut the base rate from 9.25% to 9.00%. In the dedicated press release the bank provided the updated GDP growth projection for 2017 indicated in the range of 1.3-1.8%.[284]

On April 12, 2017 the Russian Central Bank published the new issue of What Do Trends Say Bulletin with the Russian GDP growth projection for 2017 indicated at 2.0% under the average annual Urals crude oil price at USD 50-51 per barrel.[285]

On March 24, 2017 the Russian Central Bank released the monthly report on the monetary policy featuring the updated Russian GDP growth projections for 2017-2019.[286] The GDP growth is projected in the range of 1.0-1.5% in 2017 and 1.0-2.0% in 2018-2019.

On December 27, 2016 the Central Bank published the report on economic situation[287], where the Russian GDP contraction projection for 2016 was confirmed in the range of 0.5%-0.7%.

On December 22, 2016 the bank released statistical appendix to the Report on Monetary Policy featuring GDP growth projections for 2016-2019 under 3 scenarios.[288] The projection for 2016, which is common for all scenarios, is indicated in the range of –0.5 ÷ -0.7% under the average annual Urals crude oil price at USD 41 per barrel. The projections for 2017-2019 under different scenarios are as follows:

On December 1, 2016 the Central Bank issued comments on the Russian economy for November 2016, where the bank’s forecast of the Russian GDP contraction for 2016 was confirmed at 0.5-0.7%.[289]

On October 31, 2016 the Russian Central Bank released Comments on the Current Economic Situation for October 2016.[290] According to the comments, the Russian GDP contraction for 2016 is projected in the range of 0.5-0.7%.

On September 28, 2016 the Central Bank released Monetary Policy Guidelines for 2017-2019[291] featuring two scenarios of the Russian economy developments. Both scenarios assume the Russian GDP to contract by 0.3-0.7% in 2016 under the average annual Urals crude oil price of USD 40 per barrel.

On September 16, 2016 the Russian Central Bank decreased the base rate to 10.0% (10.5% previously). In the appropriate press release the Russian GDP growth for 2017 was projected at the level below 1% under the average annual Urals crude oil price at USD 40 per barrel.[292] The Bank also released the report on the monetary policy, where the GDP growth was projected at 1.5-2.0% for 2018-2019.[293]

On September 1, 2016 the new issue of What Trends Say bulletin for August 2016 was released with retained Russian GDP contraction projection for 2016 at 0.3-0.7% with notice that the real contraction is likely to be closer to the lower bound of this range (0.7%).[294]

On August 1, 2016 the Central Bank released Information and Analytical Comments on the Economy #7 (July 2016)[295], where the previous Russian GDP contraction projection for 2016 was confirmed at 0.3-0.7%. The bank estimated the Russian GDP contraction in 2Q 2016 in the range of 0.2-0.4% as compared to appropriate period of the previous year.

On June 10, 2016 the Bank released the new issue of the Report on Monetary Policy, where it updated the Russian GDP growth projections for 2016-2018.[296] Referring to the document, the Russian GDP is expected to contract by 0.3-0.7% in 2016 with further growth by 1.1-1.4% in 2017 and 1.6-2.0% in 2018. The average annual Urals crude oil price is projected at USD 38 per barrel in 2016 and USD 40 per barrel in 2017-2018.

On June 10, 2016 the Russian Central Bank announced decreasing the base rate from 11.0% to 10.5%.[297] In the appropriate press release it provided the Russian GDP growth projection for 2017 at 1.3%.

On April 7, 2016 the Russian Central Bank released 5th issue of What Trends Say bulletin, where the GDP projection for 2016 was corrected to -1.0%.[298]

On March 18, 2016 the Bank released Monetary Policy Report featuring updated GDP projections for 2016-2018.[299] According to baseline scenario the Russian GDP is expected to contract by 1.3-1.5% in 2016 with further nearly flat rate in 2017 in the range from -0.5% to 0.5% and stronger growth at 1.5-2.0% in 2018. The baseline scenario assumes average annual Urals crude oil price at USD 30 per barrel in 2016 with gradual increase to USD 35 per barrel in 2017 and USD 40 per barrel in 2018.

On March 18, 2016 the Russian Central Bank retained the key rate at 11.0% projecting GDP contraction in 2016 at 1.3-1.5% with quarterly GDP growth rates "entering positive territory" between late 2016 and early 2017.[300] The Bank's baseline scenario assumes average annual crude oil price at USD 30 per barrel in 2016 with its gradual increase to USD 40 per barrel in 2018.

On February 3, 2016 the Russian Central Bank released the first issue of Information and Analytical Comments on the Economy[301], in which it provided GDP contraction projection for 1Q 2016 at 1.7-2.5% on annual basis. The contraction of seasonally adjusted GDP for 1Q 2016 is forecasted at less than 1% as compared to 4Q 2015.

On December 11, 2015 the Central Bank released its Report on Monetary Policy with revised GDP forecasts for 2016-2018.[302] Referring to the report, under the base scenario the Bank projects 0.5-1.0% GDP contraction in 2016, 0.0-1.0% growth in 2017 and 1.5-2.5% growth in 2018. All base scenario projections assume average oil price at USD 50 per barrel over the whole period.

On December 11, 2015 Ms. Elvira Nabiullina commented to Interfax news agency that the Russian GDP contraction is expected at 3.7-3.9% for 2015.[303]

On December 11, 2015 Ms. Elvira Nabiullina announced that under stress scenario with oil prices at USD 35 per barrel the Russian GDP contraction at 2-3% is projected for 2016.[304]

On October 29, 2015 the Central Bank released the first issue of the regular report on economics and the markets called “What Trends Say”.[305] The Russian GDP contraction for 2015 is projected at 4.2% in the report.

On September 11, 2015 the Central Bank released draft version of Key Directions of Integrated State Monetary Policy for 2016 and 2017-2018[306]. Referring to the document, Russian GDP contraction for 2015 is projected at the level of 3.9-4.4% given the average Urals crude oil price at USD 52 per barrel. The Central Bank also elaborated base and optimistic scenarios of the Russian economy development over 2016-2018.

According to the base scenario, the average annual Urals crude oil price will amount to USD 50 per barrel over the whole period of 2016-2018. Under that price, GDP in 2016 is forecasted to contract further by 0.5-1.0%. The GDP projections for 2017 assume nearly flat developments (0.0-1.0% growth) with further moderate growth at the rate of 2.0-3.0% in 2018.

The optimistic scenario assumes gradual increase in Urals oil price in 2016-2018 (USD 60, 70 and 75 per barrel, correspondingly). Under that prices, GDP is to demonstrate slight growth already in 2016 (0.0-0.5%) that is assumed to strengthen in 2017-2018 (1.0-2.0% and 2.5-3.5%, correspondingly).

On June 15, 2015 the Central Bank of Russia decreased policy rate from 12.5% to 11.5%[307], and during dedicated press-conference the projected GDP contraction for 2015 was stated at 3.2% (assuming average annual Urals oil price at USD 60 per barrel). Two scenarios for GDP developments for 2016-2018 had also been mentioned.[308]

The first scenario (so-called “consensus scenario”) assumes oil prices recovery up to USD 70 per barrel by the end of 2016 with corresponding GDP growth at 0.7% and further GDP growth rates improvement to 2.4% in 2017 (oil prices at USD 75 per barrel). Slight deterioration to 1.7% growth is projected for 2018 (oil prices at USD 80 per barrel) primarily due to structural problems of the Russian economy, among which negative demographic trend and existing investment climate had been named.

The second scenario (so-called “conservative scenario”) assumes oil prices staying at around USD 60 per barrel over 2016-2018 that will lead to 1.2% GDP contraction in 2016, flat developments in 2017 (0%) and 1.7% growth in 2018.[309]


GDP Projections by the Russian Central Bank, consensus scenario (June 15, 2015)


Source: Central Bank of Russia.

In March 2015 the Central Bank presented the base and risk scenarios for the Russian economy for 2015-2017.

The base scenario relied on projected average Urals oil prices at USD 50-55 per barrel in 2015 with expected GDP contraction in the range of -3.5% - -4.0%.The further forecasted developments assume lower recession rates for 2016 with GDP contraction in the range of -1% - -1.6% (oil prices at USD 60-65 per barrel). The scenario also assumed strong recovery in 2017 with GDP growth at 5.5-6.3% and oil prices at USD 70-75 per barrel.

The risk scenario assumed oil prices at stably low level of USD 40-45 per barrel throughout 2015-2017. In that case GDP would contract by 5.3-5.8% in 2015 with following stagnation in 2016 (0-0.5% growth) and moderate recovery in 2017 (2.0-2.5% growth).[310]



Moody’s



On May 22, 2017 Moody’s released an announcement (“Russia's credit profile reflects strong government and external finances amid a range of credit challenges”) with the Russian GDP growth projections for 2017-2018 indicated at 1.5% p.a.[311]

On January 11, 2017 Moody’s revised the GDP growth projection for Russia for 2017 expecting 1.0% growth.[312]

On September 12, 2016 Moody’s provided updated GDP growth projections for Russia at -1.0% in 2016 and +1.5% in 2017 in the announcement called “Russian banks' asset quality bottoms out as economy looks up, but credit costs will remain high”.[313]

On August 17, 2016 Moody’s issued report called “Global Macro Outlook 2016-17: Emerging market outlook stabilizes, while political risks take center stage”.[314] Referring to the report, the agency projects the Russian GDP contraction in the range of 0.5-1.5% for 2016 and further GDP growth for 2017 in the range of 1.0-2.0%. Moody’s also provided so-called “growth range” for Russia at 1.3% for 2016 and 1.0% for 2017 representing the percentage point difference between the highest and lowest forecasts of sources such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), European Commission, J.P. Morgan, Barclays, and Moody’s Analytics.

On April 22, 2016 Moody’s confirmed the sovereign rating of Russia at Ba1 and changed the outlook from stable to negative.[315] In the dedicated press-release Moody’s provided the revised Russian GDP contraction projection for 2016 at 1.5%.

On February 18, 2016 Moody’s announced that it updated GDP contraction forecast for Russia for 2016 to 2.5% from 1% projected before that.[316]

Forecasts made in 2015:

On September 22, 2015 Mr. Alexandr Proklov, Senior Analyst and Vice President of Moody’s Investors Service, commented at Retail Risks Management 2015 conference that he expects the Russian GDP to contract by 4% in 2015 (or within 3.5-4.5% range).[317] In his opinion the recession will continue in 2016 at lower rates with GDP contraction at around 1% with the major driving forces for recession being low level of oil prices (at around USD 50-60 per barrel in 2015-2016) and sanctions.

On August 28, 2015 Moody’s revised the Russian GDP forecast for 2016.[318] Referring to forecast, GDP is to demonstrate negative dynamics in the range from -0.5 to -1.5%.The major reasons for revision were negative dynamics at commodity markets and currency depreciation.

On July 14, 2015 Moody’s confirmed projected Russian GDP contraction by 3% in 2015 followed by flat developments (0%) in 2016, based on Brent oil prices averaging USD 60 per barrel in 2015 and USD 65 next year.[319]

On May 27, 2015 Moody’s improved Russian GDP contraction forecast to 3% for 2015 (from 5.5% in earlier revision) and 0% growth (3% contraction in earlier revision) in 2016 expecting the economic recession in Russia to be less severe.[320]

Forecasts made in 2014:

In December 2014 Moody’s presented strictly negative outlook of Russian GDP developments for 2015 and 2016 at -5.5% and -3%, correspondingly.[321]



Fitch Ratings



On March 31, 2017 Fitch affirmed Russian IDRs at ‘BBB-‘ with stable outlook and provided the Russian GDP growth projections for 2017-2018 at 1.4% and 2.2%, correspondingly.[322] The Brent crude oil price is projected at USD 52.5 per barrel in 2017 and USD 55 per barrel in 2018.

On November 29, 2016 Fitch updated GDP projections for Russia for 2016-2018 in its Global Economic Outlook November 2016. The document data are not available publicly and, therefore, are not presented here. The document still can be accessed by registered users of Fitch at: https://www.fitchratings.com/site/re/890813

On October 14, 2016 Fitch revised the Russian IDR changing the outlook from negative to stable and affirming the IDR at BBB-.[323] In the corresponding press release the Russian GDP projections were disclosed assuming 0.5% GDP contraction in 2016 and further growth at 1.3% in 2017 and 2.0% in 2018. In case the structural problems of the Russian economy are no addressed, the further mid-term growth rates are projected at about 1.5% pa. The projections made under the expected average annual Brent crude oil price at USD 42 per barrel in 2016, USD 45 per barrel in 2016 and USD 55 per barrel in 2018.

On May 25, 2016 Fitch issued new revision of the Global Economic Outlook with updated Russian macroeconomic projections for 2016-2018.[324] Referring to the report, the Russian GDP is expected to contract by 0.7% in 2016 with further growth by 1.3% in 2017 and 2.0% in 2018. The projected average annual crude oil price is USD 35 per barrel in 2016, USD 45 per barrel in 2017 and USD 55 per barrel in 2018.

On April 15, 2016 Fitch affirmed Issuer Default Rating of Russia at investment grade (BBB-) and confirmed the Russian GDP contraction projection for 2016 at 1.5%.[325]

On March 7, 2016 Fitch revised GDP contraction projection for Russia for 2016 in its Global Economic Outlook.[326] The GDP is forecasted to contract by 1.5% under the average annual Brent crude oil price at USD 35 per barrel. For the year 2017 the average annual Brent crude oil price is projected at USD 45 per barrel.

On February 2, 2016 Fitch distributed press-release on the Russian economy developments, where the agency changed its GDP projections for 2016 from +0.5% growth to -1.0% contraction.[327]

On December 22, 2015 Mr. Charles Seville, Senior Director of Fitch Ratings Inc., commented that he expects +0.5% growth of the Russian GDP in 2016 with further acceleration to 1.5% in 2017.[328]

On December 14, 2015 in the report “2016 Outlook: Emerging Europe Sovereigns” Fitch Ratings projected stabilisation of the Russian economy with GDP growth at 0.5% after 4% contraction in 2015.[329]

On October 17, 2015 Fitch revised Russian GDP projections for 2015-2017.[330] According to new forecast, Fitch expects 4% GDP contraction in 2015 with further stabilisation and slight growth at 0.5% and 1.5% in 2016 and 2017, correspondingly. That projections assume average annual oil prices at USD 55 per barrel in 2015, USD 60 per barrel in 2016 and USD 70 per barrel in 2017.

On September 17, 2015 Mr. Charles Seville announced that Fitch expects Russian GDP to grow at nearly flat range of 0-0.5% in 2016.[331] This relies upon annual average oil price expectation at USD 60 per barrel.[332]

On September 8, 2015 Mr. Charles Seville, Senior Director of Fitch Ratings Inc., announced that the rating agency expects Russian GDP contraction for 2015 to be in the range of 3.5-4%.[333]



Standard & Poor’s



On March 17, 2017 S&P changed the sovereign credit rating outlook for Russia from stable to positive.[334] In the corresponding press release the Russian GDP growth projection for 2017 was indicated at 1.5%, while the annual projections for 2018-2020 were indicated at 1.7%.

On November 23, 2016 S&P released the report on the banking sector (cited by Finmarket news agency[335]) with the Russian GDP growth projections for 2017-2018 confirmed at +1.4% and +1.7%, correspondingly.

On September 16, 2016 S&P changed the sovereign credit rating outlook for Russia to stable providing also GDP growth projections for 2016-2019 at -1.0%, 1.4%, 1.7% and 1.7%, correspondingly.[336] The average annual Brent crude oil price is expected at USD 40 per barrel in 2016, USD 45 per barrel in 2017 and USD 50 per barrel in 2018 and thereafter.

On March 18, 2016 S&P affirmed its BB+ sovereign rating for Russia providing for revised GDP contraction forecast at 1.4% for 2016.[337]

On February 17, 2016 S&P confirmed its credit ratings on Russia and also provided its projections on the key macroeconomic indicators in 2016-2019.[338] Referring to forecasts, the Russian GDP is expected to contract by 1.3% in 2016 with further moderate growth at 1.0-1.2% per annum. The average annual crude oil prices is projected at USD 40 per barrel in 2016.


S&P: Russian GDP Growth Projections until 2019


Source: Standard and Poor's.

On December 22, 2015 Ms. Tatiana Lysenko, the Chief Economist of S&P on Russia, announced Russian GDP growth projection for 2015 at +0.3% subject to the annual average oil price at USD 55 per barrel.[339]

On October 15, 2015 S&P revised the Russian GDP growth projection for 2015 to -3.6% (previous forecast: -2.6%).[340] The projection for 2016 was also changed to 0.3% (previous forecast: 1.6%). S&P expects longer recovery of domestic demand due to decrease and volatility of oil prices coupled with tougher tax and monetary policy until the end of 2016. The average Brent crude oil price is projected at USD 55 per barrel in 2015 and USD 65 per barrel in 2016.

On September 16, 2015 S&P distributed a press-release on its research called "Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment: Russia".[341] Referring to press-release, S&P projected -2.6% Russian GDP contraction in 2015 with substantial downside risks. Mass media also cited contents of the reports that envisages average annual GDP growth over 2015-2019 at 0.5%.[342]



Dagong Rating Agency (China)



On September 22, 2016 Dagong confirmed Russia’s local and foreign currency sovereign credit ratings at A with stable outlook.[343] The press-release features the Russian GDP growth projections for 2016-2017 at -0.8% and +1.0%, correspondingly.

On January 27, 2016 TASS information agency cited the report by Dagong that projects the Russian economy to contract by 0.6% in 2016 primarily due to low oil prices and high inflation rates.[344]



Analytical Credit Rating Agency (ACRA)



On March 28, 2017 ACRA provided the updated macroeconomic projections for Russia until 2021.[345] Referring to the forecast, the Russian GDP is expected to grow by 0.5% in 2017, 0.6% in 2018, 0.8% in 2019, 0.9% in 2020 and 1.1% in 2021.

On September 12, 2016 ACRA released updated macroeconomic forecast until 2020.[346] Referring to the projections, the Russian GDP is expected to contract by 1.5% in 2016, while in the following years the GDP growth is not likely to exceed 1.0-1.5% pa even in case the crude oil price is at relatively high level. Specifically, the agency projects 0.1% contraction in 2017 followed by moderate growth of 0.5% in 2018, 0.7% in 2019 and 0.9% in 2020. The average annual Urals crude oil price is projected to stay at USD 41 per barrel in 2016 with further gradual growth from USD 43 per barrel in 2017, USD 44 per barrel in 2018 and USD 45 per barrel in 2019-2020.

On September 6, 2016 Ms. Yekaterina Trofimova, the head of ACRA, in her interview to Russia24 TV channel commented that ACRA expects 1.6% GDP contraction in 2016.[347]

On March 21, 2016 Kommersant newspaper announced the first Russian macroeconomic forecast for 2016-2020 to be issued by ACRA, the newly established Russian credit rating agency, over the coming week (March 21-27, 2016).[348] Referring to the cited key indicators of forecast, ACRA expects the Russian GDP contraction at 1.8% in 2016 under the average annual crude oil price at USD 39 per barrel and 0.4% contraction in 2017 under the oil price at USD 43 per barrel. In 2018-2020 the positive GDP developments are projected: 0.5% growth in 2018 under the average annual crude oil price at USD 44 per barrel, 0.7% growth in 2019 (crude oil at USD 45 per barrel) and 0.9% growth in 2020 (crude oil at USD 45 per barrel).


ACRA: Projections of the Russian GDP Dynamics for 2016-2020 (March 2016)


Source: Kommersant.


ACRA: Projections of the Average Annual Crude Oil Price Dynamics for 2016-2020 (March 2016)


Source: Kommersant.



Expert Surveys of HSE



On May 18, 2017 the Centre of Development of Higher School of Economics (HSE) published Comments on the State and Business (April 27 – May 17, 2017) featuring the results of new experts’ poll on the Russian economy developments over 2017-2023.[349] Referring to the poll results, the Russian GDP growth is not expected to exceed 2.0% p.a. for the indicated period.

Results of Experts’ Poll by the Centre of Development of HSE (May 2017)

IndicatorUnit2017201820192020202120222023
GDP growth%1.11.51.71.71.82.02.0
Average annual Urals crude oil priceUSD per barrel51545658596061

Source: Comments on the State and Business, April 27-May 17, 2017.

On February 15, 2017 the Centre of Development of HSE released the results of the new poll on the Russian economy developments for 2017-2023.[350] According to the poll results, the Russian GDP is projected to demonstrate the moderate growth rates below 2.0% p.a. throughout the whole period (1.1% in 2017, 1.5% in 2018, 1.6% in 2019, 1.7% in 2020, 1.8% in 2021 and 1.9% in 2022-2023). The underlying average annual Urals crude oil price projections assume slow growth from USD 51 per barrel in 2017 to USD 61 per barrel in 2023 (USD 55 per barrel in 2018, USD 57 per barrel in 2019, USD 59 per barrel in 2020, USD 59 per barrel in 2021 and USD 60 per barrel in 2022).

On November 28, 2016 HSE (Higher School of Economics) released the results of its new poll on the Russian economy developments.[351] The consensus projections of the Russian GDP growth were indicated at -0.7% for 2016 with further moderate growth at rates not exceeding 2.0% per annum until 2020 (1.0% for 2017, 1.4% for 2018, 1.7% for 2019, 1.8% for 2020, 2.1% for 2021 and 2.2% for 2022).

The corresponding annual average Urals crude oil price is projected at USD 42 per barrel in 2016 with gradual increase to USD 64 per barrel in 2022 (USD 50 per barrel in 2017, USD 54 per barrel in 2018, USD 57 per barrel in 2019, USD 60 per barrel in 2020 and USD 62 per barrel in 2021).

On August 18, 2016 the results of quarterly experts’ poll on the Russian economy developments for 2016-2022 were released by the Centre of Development of HSE in the new issue of Comments on the State and Business.[352] In accordance with the consensus forecast, the Russian GDP is expected to contract by 0.8% in 2016 with further moderate growth gradually increasing from 1.1% in 2017 to 2.1% in 2021-2022.


HSE Poll: GDP Growth Projections for 2016-2022 (August 2016)


Source: Higher School of Economics.


HSE Poll: Projected Dynamics of Urals Crude Oil Price for 2016-2022, USD per Barrel


Source: Higher School of Economics.

The list of the poll participants included The Boston Consulting Group, Centre for Macroeconomic Research of Sberbank, Economic Expert Group, Economist Intelligence Unit, Eurasian Economic Commission, ING Bank (Eurasia), Institute of National Economy Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Centre for Development of Higher School of Economics, Institute of Economy of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Institute of Economic Policy named after Gaidar, JPMorgan, Lukoil, PF Capital, Renaissance Capital, Sberbank CIB, The Conference Board, UBS, UniCredit Bank, UralSib Capital, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW), VneshEconomBank, and VTB Capital.

On May 20, 2016 in the Comments on the State and the Business publication for the period of April 29-May 19 the Centre provided the results of new poll on the Russian economy developments prospects for 2016-2022 (27 experts).[353] Referring to the poll results, the Russian GDP is expected to contract by -1.2% in 2016 with further moderate growth from 1.0% to 2.1% over 2017-2022. The average annual Urals crude oil price is expected to stay at USD 41 per barrel in 2016 increasing further to USD 51 per barrel in 2017 and slowly growing up to USD 63 per barrel by 2022.


GDP Growth Projections Until 2022 According to HSE’s Expert Survey (May 2016)


Source: Higher School of Economics.


Projected Dynamics of Urals Crude Oil Price in 2016-2022, USD per Barrel (May 2016)


Source: Higher School of Economics.

On February 26, 2016 Centre for Development of HSE released new issue of Comments on the State and Business[354] featuring updated consensus GDP forecast.


GDP Growth Projections Until 2022 According to HSE’s Expert Survey (February 2016)


Source: Higher School of Economics.

The following projections of Urals crude oil prices dynamics accompanied consensus GDP forecast:


Projected Dynamics of Urals Crude Oil Price in 2016-2022, USD per Barrel (February 2016)


Source: Higher School of Economics.

On December 15, 2015 the Centre for Development of HSE published revised version of experts’ consensus projections of key Russian macroeconomics indicators[355] featuring the following GDP forecasts until 2021:


GDP Growth Projections until 2021 According to HSE’s Expert Survey (December 2015)


Source: Higher School of Economics.

The following projections of Urals crude oil prices dynamics accompanied consensus GDP forecast:


Projected Dynamics of Urals Crude Oil Price in 2015-2021, USD per Barrel (December 2015)


Source: Higher School of Economics.

In the beginning of August, 2015 Centre for Development of Higher School of Economics carried out a quarterly survey on the prospects of the Russian economy with participation of 23 experts representing mostly banks, investment banks, consulting companies and research institutions.[356] The survey covered the period of 2015-2016, as well as developments until 2021.

The most part of experts believe in proceeding heavy GDP contraction until the end of 2015, slightly positive or flat developments (65% of experts) or continuing recession (35%) in 2016 and further moderate GDP growth with the rates not exceeding 2.1% until 2021.

The consensus forecasts envisages the gradual growth in annual average Urals oil price from USD 59 per barrel in 2015 to USD 84 per barrel in 2021.


GDP Growth Projections until 2021 According to HSE’s Expert Survey (August 2015)


Source: Higher School of Economics.

The list of survey participants included The Boston Consulting Group, Capital Economics, Centre for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting, Centre for Development of Higher School of Economics, Economic Expert Group, Economist Intelligence Unit, HSBC Bank (RR), Institute of National Economy Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Institute of Economic Policy named after Gaidar, JPMorgan, Lukoil, Morgan Stanley, MTS-bank, Otkritie Capital, Raiffeisen Bank, Renaissance Capital, Centre for Macroeconomic Research of Sberbank, UBS, UniCredit Bank, UralSib, VneshEconomBank, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW) and VTB Capital.



Reuters Polls



On June 1, 2017 Reuters released the results of its new poll on the Russian economy developments.[357] The Russian GDP growth consensus projections were corrected to 1.4% for 2017 and 1.7% for 2018.

On April 5, 2017 Reuters provided the results of the monthly poll confirming the previous Russian GDP growth projection for 2017 at 1.2% and indicating 2018 projection at 1.6%.[358]

On March 2, 2017 Reuters released the results of its new poll on the Russian economy developments.[359] The consensus GDP growth projection for 2017 have not been changed and retained at 1.2%.

On February 1, 2017 Reuters published results of the new poll with the consensus GDP growth projection for 2017 remaining at 1.2%.[360]

On January 13, 2017 Reuters released results of its new poll on the Russian economy developments featuring the updated GDP growth projection for 2017.[361] The consensus GDP forecast for 2017 assumes 1.2% growth (1.1% under previous poll).

On December 5, 2016 the Ministry of Economic Development of Russian released weekly economic monitoring report[362] featuring Reuters’ consensus Russian GDP growth projections for 2016-2017 at -0.5% and +1.1%, correspondingly (no changes as compared to the previous poll results). The quarterly GDP growth is projected at 0.0% for 4Q 2016 and +0.4% for 1Q 2017.

On November 1, 2016 the results of new poll on the Russian economy developments were released by Reuters (17 participants).[363] The updated median of the Russian GDP growth projections for 2016 was indicated at -0.5% (previous poll results featured -0.6% median), while the median for 2017 remained at +1.1%.

On September 1, 2016 Reuters released results of its new poll on the Russian economy development prospects (15 experts) with consensus GDP contraction projection for 2016 revised to 0.6%.[364]

On August 1, 2016 the mass media cited results of the Reuters Poll on the Russian economy developments for July 2016.[365] The Russian GDP contraction projection for 2016 of 12 experts participating in the poll was revised to 0.7% (0.6% under previous projection).

On June 6, 2016 the results of the new Reuters Poll were published with the consensus Russian GDP contraction projection for 2016 revised from 1.5% to 0.6% and the most pessimistic projection at 1.7%.[366]

On May 11, 2016 Reuters released the results of the new poll on the Russian economy developments.[367] The experts have worsened GDP contraction forecast for 2016 with GDP growth projections’ median at -1.5% vs. -1.3% registered a month earlier.

On April 13, 2016 1Prime news agency published the results of Reuters’ poll for March 2016.[368] According to the poll results, the median for the Russian GDP contraction projection for 2016 is 1.3%, while in 2017 the experts mostly expect growth with the projections’ median at 1.1%.[369]

On March 3, 2016 the results of the monthly Reuters poll were published[370] with consensus GDP contraction projection for 2016 at 1.4% (16 experts).

On February 3, 2016 Reuters released results of new poll with consensus GDP contraction projection for 2016 indicated at the level of 3% assuming the average annual crude oil price at USD 37 per barrel.[371] The previous projection assumed 0.9% contraction under the average oil price at USD 50 per barrel.

On December 2, 2015 Reuters provided data on the November poll with consensus GDP growth forecast remaining unchanged at -3.9% for 2015 and slightly positive dynamics at +0.3% in 2016.[372] The analysts also predict that in the 1st half of 2017 the quarterly GDP will demonstrate growth rates exceeding 2% on annual basis.

On November 2, 2015 Reuters released results of October poll on the Russian economy developments. The GDP contraction forecast for 2015 was corrected from 4.0% to 3.9%, while the growth at 0.3% is projected for 2016.[373]

On October 8, 2015 the result of September 2015 Reuters Poll were released.[374] According to the new forecast, the Russian economy is expected to contract by 4% in 2015 (-3.7% in previous forecast). The projections assume 4.5% GDP contraction in 3rd quarter of 2015 and 4% contraction in the 4th quarter.

On August 10, 2015 Reuters published the results of monthly expert survey on the prospects of development of the Russian economy in 2015.[375] Referring to the results, the economy is expected to hit bottom in 2Q 2015 (4.6% GDP contraction) with slightly improving performance in 3Q and 4Q (3.7% and 2.5% GDP contraction, correspondingly). The consensus forecast assumes overall 3.5% contraction for 2015.



RosBusinessConsulting Polls



On December 28, 2015 RBC published the results of its poll on the Russian economy development in 2016.[376] Referring to the results, 16 of 32 participating experts believe that the economy will contract in 2016, 5 experts predict zero growth, while the remaining 11 participants project positive GDP developments. The poll’s consensus GDP forecast for 2016 is 0.2% contraction, and the average Brent crude oil price consensus projection is USD 51.8 per barrel.



Vedomosti Newspaper Polls



On December 24, 2015 Vedomosti newspaper published the results of its poll (20 experts) on the Russian economy prospects in 2016.[377] Referring to the poll results, the median of GDP projections for 2016 is -0.5%, while maximum projection is at +0.8% and minimum projection is at -2.5%. The median of the Brent crude oil price projections for 2016 is USD 50 per barrel with minimal projected price at USD 35 per barrel and maximum projected price at USD 55 per barrel.

Poll participants: Alfa Bank, BCS Financial Group, PF Capital, Renaissance Capital, RosBank, UralSib, Centre for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting, Centre for Development of Higher School of Economics, Centre of Macroeconomic Research of Sberbank, Centre of Economic Forecasting of GaspromBank, Economic Expert Group, Bank of America - Merrill Lynch, BNP Paribas, Capital Economics, Citigroup, Credit Suisse, ING, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley and Royal Bank of Scotland.



Interfax Polls



On August 30, 2016 Interfax referred to its poll results on the Russian GDP projection for the year made in the end of July, 2016 with consensus forecast assuming 0.8% contraction.[378]

On February 10, 2016 Interfax referred to the results of its poll that took place in the end of January 2016 with consensus forecast on the Russian GDP contraction in 2016 at 1%.[379]



FocusEconomics Polls



On June 7, 2017 FocusEconomics published results of its poll with consensus Russian GDP growth projections for 2017 and 2018 retained at 1.3% and 1.7%, correspondingly.[380]

On May 9, 2017 FocusEconomics released results of it poll on the Russian GDP growth projections for 2017-2018 that were retained at 1.3% and 1.7%, correspondingly.[381]

On April 4, 2017 FocusEconomics provided the new monthly poll results on the Russian GDP developments with consensus GDP growth projections for 2017-2018 retained at 1.3% and 1.7%, correspondingly.[382]

On March 7, 2017 FocusEconomics released the results of the poll with the consensus Russian GDP growth projection for 2017 revised to 1.3% and 2018 projection retained at 1.7%.[383]

On February 6, 2017 FocusEconomics updated the consensus Russian GDP growth projections for 2017-2018 to 1.2% and 1.7%, correspondingly.[384]

On December 30, 2016 Focus Economics provided the updated Russian GDP growth projections under the December poll indicated at -0.6% for 2016, +1.2% for 2017 and +1.6% for 2018.[385]

On November 29, 2016 Focus Economics released the results of its poll for November 2016 indicating the Russian GDP growth consensus projections at -0.6% for 2016 and 1.2% for 2017.[386]

On November 18, 2016 FocusEconomics provided the updated consensus forecast of the Russian GDP contraction in 2016 at -0.7% while keeping the consensus GDP growth projection for 2017 at +1.3%.[387]

Attention: the forecast above have not been inserted to the datasheet, as far as it is made between official dates of polls.

On November 4, 2016 FocusEconomics released the results of its new poll on the Russian economy developments.[388] The consensus GDP forecast remain unchanged with projected GDP contraction in 2016 at 0.6% and moderate GDP growth at 1.3% in 2017.

On October 4, 2016 FocusEconomics published its October poll results with the Russian GDP contraction projection for 2016 slightly improved to 0.6% (0.7% previously) and 2017 projection staying at 1.3%.[389]

On September 9, 2016 Focus Economics released the results of its latest poll on the Russian GDP growth with consensus projection at -0.7% in 2016 and +1.3% in 2017.[390]

On August 2, 2016 FocusEconomics released revised Russia Economic Outlook[391] featuring GDP growth projections for 2016 and 2017 at -0.8% and +1.4%, correspondingly.

On June 8, 2016 Kommersant newspaper cited the results of the monthly poll of FocusEconomics on the Russian economy developments in the coming years.[392] The consensus projections on the Russian GDP growth for 2016-2017 are -1.1% and +1.3%, correspondingly.



Bloomberg Polls



On February 14, 2017 Global Economic Outlook 1Q 2017 was released by Deloitte University Press featuring the Russian GDP growth projections for 2017-2018 provided by the Bloomberg Poll at 1.1% and 1.5%, correspondingly (data as of January 16, 2017).[393]

On February 2, 2017 Bloomberg indicated results of its recent poll on the Russian GDP contraction in 2016 at 0.5%.[394]

On October 27, 2016 Global Economic Outlook 4Q 2016 was released by Deloitte University Press featuring Bloomberg Poll’s median of the Russian GDP growth projections at -0.9% in 2016, +1.2% in 2017 and +1.5% in 2018 (as of September 27, 2016).[395]

On August 14, 2016 Bloomberg commented on the Russian economy developments releasing also results of its recent poll on the Russian GDP dynamics.[396] The poll’s median assumes GDP contraction in 2016 at 0.8% with further growth at 1.3% in 2017 and 1.5% in 2018.

On July 22, 2016 Deloitte University Press released Global Economic Outlook 3Q 2016 with cited Bloomberg poll’ median Russian GDP growth projections for 2016-2018 (as of June 27, 2016).[397] Referring to the poll results, the Russian GDP is expected to contract by 0.9% in 2016 with further growth by 1.2% in 2017 and 1.5% in 2018.

On May 30, 2016 Bloomberg commented on the results of its new poll with median of the Russian GDP contraction projections for 2016 stated at 1.0% (1.5% contraction was assumed in accordance with previous poll).[398]

On February 3, 2016 Bloomberg released updated Russian GDP contraction projection for 2016 at 0.8% (previous projection assumed 0.5% contraction) with corresponding budget deficit projection at 3.2%.[399]

On January 10, 2016 Bloomberg released the results of its polls on the projected economic developments of different countries in 2016.[400] The poll’s median on Russian GDP growth in 2016 is -0.5% with recession probability at 65%.

On November 5, 2015 Bloomberg referred to the results of its Russian economy developments survey among analysts with GDP growth projections median at +0.2% in 2016 and +1.1% in 2017.[401]

On August 27, 2015 Bloomberg published results of experts’ survey on GDP dynamics prospects carried out over August 24-26, 2015.[402] Referring to the survey, the Russian GDP contraction is expected at 3.7% in 2015 with further slight growth at 0.5% in 2016 and 1.1% in 2017.


Russian GDP Projections by Bloomberg for 2015-2017, %


Source: Bloomberg Business.

On July 1, 2015 Bloomberg published summary on 2015 GDP forecasts for a number of countries.[403] Based on Bloomberg’s June 2015 survey, the consensus 2015 GDP growth forecast for Russia was at -3.5%.



The Economist Polls



On June 8, 2017 The Economist released the results of its June poll of forecasters (registration at the web site or access to paper version is required for viewing).[404] The Russian consensus GDP growth projection for 2017 stayed at 1.4%, while 2018 projection was corrected to 1.7% (1.8% under previous poll results). The spread of projections for 2017 was in the range of 0.8-2.0%, and the spread of 2018 projections was within 0.9-3.3%.

On May 6, 2017 The Economist published the results of its May poll.[405] The consensus projection on the Russian GDP growth for 2017 and 2018 was indicated at 1.4% and 1.8%, correspondingly. The spread of projections for 2017 was in the range of 0.8-2.6%, while 2018 projections were in the range of 0.9-3.0%.

On April 8, 2017 The Economist released the results of its April poll[406] (registration at the web site or access to paper version is required for viewing). Referring to poll results, the consensus projection of the Russian GDP growth stayed at 1.4% for 2017, while 2018 projection was indicated at 1.7% (1.8% previously). The spread of projections for 2017 was indicated in the range of 0.8-2.6%, while the 2018 spread was in the range of 0.9-3.0%.

On March 9, 2017 The Economist released the results of its March poll.[407] The consensus projection of the Russian GDP growth for 2017 was revised to 1.4% and 2018 projection was indicated at 1.8%. The spread of projections for 2017 was indicated in the range of 0.6-2.6%, while the 2018 spread was in the range of 0.9-3.0%.

On February 9, 2017 The Economist published the results of February poll.[408] The consensus GDP growth estimate for 2016 and projection for 2017 retained at -0.5% and +1.3%, correspondingly. The spread of estimates for 2016 was from -0.8% to -0.2%, while available projections for 2017 varied from +0.6% to +2.6%.

On January 14, 2017 the Economist released results of its January poll.[409] The consensus GDP growth projection for Russia retained at -0.5% for 2016, while 2017 projection was revised to +1.3% (+1.2% previously). The spread of projections for 2016 was from -0.7% to -0.2% for 2016 and from +0.6% to +2.6% for 2017.

On December 10, 2016 The Economist published the results of its new poll.[410] The consensus GDP growth projections for Russia were revised to -0.5% for 2016 (-0.8% previously) and +1.2% for 2017 (+1.3% previously). The spread of projections for 2016 was from -1.0% to 0.0% for 2016 (-2.1% to -0.5% previously) and from +0.6% to +1.7% for 2017 (+0.4% to +2.6% previously).

On November 12, 2016 the results of the November poll of The Economist was released.[411] The consensus GDP growth projections were indicated at -0.8% for 2016 (-0.7% previously) and +1.3% for 2017 (+1.4% previously). The spread of projections for 2016 was from -2.1% to -0.5% for 2016 and from +0.4% to +2.6% for 2017.



Centre for Development of Higher School of Economics



On May 15, 2017 the Centre released its mid-term forecast on the Russian economy development until 2020.[412] According to the baseline scenario of the forecast, the Russian GDP is expected to grow by 1.4% in 2017, 0.9% in 2018, 1.5% in 2019 and 1.6% in 2020 under the average annual Urals crude oil price at USD 50 per barrel. The nominal GDP is projected at RUR 92.82 trillion in 2017, RUR 97.57 trillion in 2018, RUR 104.1 in 2019 and RUR 111.1 in 2020.

On February 7, 2017 the Centre published new issue of Comments on the State and Business.[413] The GDP growth projection for 2017 was indicated at 1.5% under the average annual Urals crude oil price at USD 50 per barrel and exports growth at 1.7%. In case the average Urals crude oil price hits USD 55 per barrel in 2017, the GDP growth is projected at 1.9%.

On November 8, 2016 the Centre released the new issue of Comments on the State and Business, where the previous GDP contraction projection for 2016 at 0.9% was confirmed.[414]

On October 3, 2016 the Centre revised its macroeconomic projections for 2016-2020[415] with the Russian GDP growth expected at -0.9% in 2016, 0.4% in 2017, 0.6% in 2018 and 0.7% in 2019-2020. The average annual Urals crude oil price is projected at USD 41 per barrel in 2016 and USD 45 per barrel in 2017-2020.

On August 1, 2016 the new issue of Comments on the State and Business was released featuring the revised GDP projection for 2016.[416] HSE estimated the Russian GDP contraction in 1H 2016 at 1.6% as compared to 4Q 2015, and the GDP contraction projection for the whole year was corrected to 1.5%.

On June 8, 2016 the Centre released Comments on the State and Business for the period of May 20-June 6, 2016, where it retained the previous GDP growth projections for 2016 (-1.6% under the average annual Urals crude oil price at USD 35 per barrel and -0.8% under the crude at USD 45 per barrel).[417]

On May 20, 2016 in the Comments on the State and the Business publication for the period of April 29-May 19 the Centre confirmed pr7)evious GDP projections for 2016 (0.8% contraction under the Urals crude oil price at USD 45 per barrel and 1.6% contraction under the crude at USD 35 per barrel).[418]

On April 28, 2016 the Centre released new issue of Comments on the State and the Business, where the GDP contraction projection for 2016 was confirmed at 1.6% under the average annual Urals crude oil price at USD 35 per barrel and 0.8% under the crude at USD 45 per barrel.[419]

On March 30, 2016 the Centre presented two scenarios of the Russian economy development until 2016.[420]


Centre for Development of HSE: Projected GDP Dynamics in 2016-2030 (“Scenario 35”)


Source: Higher School of Economics.


Centre for Development of HSE: Projected GDP Dynamics in 2016-2030 (“Scenario 50”)


Source: Higher School of Economics.

On March 14, 2016 the Centre released new issue of Comments on the State and Business, in which it updated own projections on the Russian GDP developments in 2016.[421] Referring to inertial (optimistic) scenario, which assumes average annual Urals crude oil price restoring to USD 50 per barrel, the Russian GDP contraction will amount to 1.7% in 2016. In accordance with the second scenario assuming Urals crude oil price staying at USD 35 per barrel in 2016, the GDP is expected to contract by 3.0%.

In June 2015 Centre for Development of Higher School of Economics released the new version of the Russian mid-term economic forecast.[422] The Centre considered the negative scenario with Urals oil prices at the level of USD 50 per barrel for 2015-2018 to be the most probable one. Referring to the forecast, Russia will face continuing recession over 2015-2018.


GDP Projections by HSE (negative scenario), year-over-year (June-July 2015)


Source: Higher School of Economics.



Centre for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting



On March 16, 2017 the Centre published the review on development trends of the economies of the members of the Eurasian Economic Union[423], where the Russian GDP growth projection for 2017 was indicated at 0.9% (projection factually provided in February 2017).

On October 20, 2016 the Centre released presentation of its experts at LINK project conference dedicated to Russia's Economic Development in 2015-2016 and 2017-2019 Outlook[424] (authors: D. Belousov, E. Abramova, A. Apokin, K. Mikhaylenko). According to the presentation, the Russian GDP is expected to contract by 0.9% in 2016 followed by the moderate growth at 0.8% in 2017, 1.5% in 2018 and 1.8% in 2019. The forecast is made under the average annual Urals crude oil prices at USD 40.6 per barrel in 2016, USD 45.0 per barrel in 2017, USD 50.0 in 2018 and USD 52.0 in 2019.

On July 26, 2016 the Centre released the forecast of the key Russian macroeconomic indicators for 2016-2019 featuring optimistic and pessimistic scenarios.[425]

On April 6, 2016 the Centre presented the analytical review called “Results of 2015 and Economic Developments Forecast for the Medium Term”.[426] In the document the Centre offered two scenarios of economic development of Russia for 2016-2019 relying primarily on the Urals crude oil price dynamics:

On July 20, 2015 the Centre presented two scenarios of development of the Russian economy for 2015 and 2016.[427]

The base scenario assumes GDP contraction at 3.2-3.5% in 2015 with average annual Urals oil prices at USD 58-61 per barrel. In 2016 the slight GDP growth is expected at rates of 0.7-1.0% with Urals oil prices in the range of USD 63-66 per barrel.

Referring to the pessimistic scenario, the GDP contraction will be at the level of 4.0-4.3% in 2015 (Urals oil prices at USD 51-54 per barrel) that will be followed by slight recession in 2016 (0.3-0.6% GDP contraction with Urals oil prices at USD 45-49 per barrel).



Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy



On April 17, 2017 Gaidar Institute in cooperation with RANEPA (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) and Russian Foreign Trade Academy presented the update of the macroeconomic forecast for Russia for 2017-2018 featuring baseline scenario and scenario with depreciating rouble.[428] Both scenarios assume that the annual average Urals crude oil price will be at USD 50 per barrel in 2017 and USD 60 per barrel in 2018.

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy: Russian GDP Projections for 2017-2018, Baseline Scenario (April 2017)

-1Q 2016
(actual)
2Q 2016
(actual)
3Q 2016
(actual)
4Q 2016
(actual)
2016 total
(actual)
1Q 20172Q 20173Q 20174Q 20172017 total2018 total
Urals crude oil price, USD per barrel32.644.446.148.943.053.047.050.050.050.060.0
GDP, RUR billion18 81620 43022 72124 07786043.619 59721 33723 85625 15089 94094 073
GDP physical volume index, % to appropriate period of previous year99.699.599.6100.399.8100.7101.0101.3101.5101.2101.8
GDP deflator101.8103.4103.8105.1103.6103.4103.4103.7102.9103.3102.8

Source: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy.

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy: Russian GDP Projections for 2017-2018, Scenario with Depreciating Rouble (April 2017)

-1Q 2016
(actual)
2Q 2016
(actual)
3Q 2016
(actual)
4Q 2016
(actual)
2016 total
(actual)
1Q 20172Q 20173Q 20174Q 20172017 total2018 total
Urals crude oil price, USD per barrel32.644.446.148.943.053.047.050.050.050.060.0
GDP, RUR billion18 81620 43022 72124 07786043.619 59721 87124 92226 26392 65399 610
GDP physical volume index, % to appropriate period of previous year99.699.599.6100.399.8100.7101.1102.3101.4101.4101.5
GDP deflator101.8103.4103.8105.1103.6103.4105.9107.3107.6106.2105.9

Source: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy.

On January 24, 2017 Gaidar Institute released the updated macroeconomic forecast for Russia for 2017-2018 featuring the baseline and conservative scenarios (part of Monitoring of Economic Situation in Russia[429] and the separate document[430]).

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy: Russian GDP Projections for 2017-2018, Baseline Scenario (January 2017)

-1Q 2016
(actual)
2Q 2016
(actual)
3Q 2016
(actual)
4Q 2016
(actual / estimate)
2016 total
(actual / estimate)
1Q 20172Q 20173Q 20174Q 20172017 total2018 total
Urals crude oil price, USD per barrel31.943.643.948.041.950.050.050.050.050.060.0
GDP, RUR billion18 56119 97922 19023 34284 07219 54121 01023 27424 21588 04093 661
GDP physical volume index, % to appropriate period of previous year98.899.499.699.799.4101.0102.1101.8100.7101.4102.2
GDP deflator103.1104.2104.7105.7104.0104.2103.0103.0103.0103.3104.0

Source: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy.

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy: Russian GDP Projections for 2017-2018, Conservative Scenario (January 2017)

-1Q 2016
(actual)
2Q 2016
(actual)
3Q 2016
(actual)
4Q 2016
(actual / estimate)
2016 total
(actual / estimate)
1Q 20172Q 20173Q 20174Q 20172017 total2018 total
Urals crude oil price, USD per barrel31.943.643.948.041.940.040.040.040.040.040.0
GDP, RUR billion18 56119 97922 19023 34284 07219 20820 70122 98523 91186 80490 865
GDP physical volume index, % to appropriate period of previous year98.899.499.699.799.4100.3101.3101.199.9100.6101.7
GDP deflator103.1104.2104.7105.7104.0103.1102.3102.5102.6102.6102.9

Source: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy.

On October 3, 2016 Gaidar Institute issued Monitoring of Economic Situation in Russia for September 2016[431] featuring updated macroeconomic projections for 2016-2018 under the baseline and optimistic scenarios.

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy: Russian GDP Projections for 2016-2018, Baseline Scenario (September 2016)

-1Q 20162Q 20163Q 20164Q 20162016 total1Q 20172Q 20173Q 20174Q 20172017 total2018 total
Urals crude oil price, USD per barrel32.644.444.039.040.040.040.040.040.040.040.0
GDP, RUR billion18 56119 83222 37023 38484 14719 49121 26023 64924 78489 18494 094
GDP physical volume index, % to appropriate period of previous year98.899.499.299.399.299.9101.2100.5100.4100.5101.5

Source: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy.

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy: Russian GDP Projections for 2016-2018, Optimistic Scenario (September 2016)

-1Q 20162Q 20163Q 20164Q 20162016 total1Q 20172Q 20173Q 20174Q 20172017 total2018 total
Urals crude oil price, USD per barrel32.644.444.047.042.050.050.050.050.050.060.0
GDP, RUR billion18 56119 83222 37023 65084 41319 66321 35823 76624 76589 55295 695
GDP physical volume index, % to appropriate period of previous year98.899.499.299.699.3100.4101.9100.7100.6100.9101.9

Source: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy.

On June 20, 2016 Gaidar Institute released new issue of Current Monitoring of Economic Situation in Russia with revised projections of key macroeconomic indicators for 2016-2018.[432] Similar to previous forecast, the document features baseline and optimistic scenarios of the Russian economy development.

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy: Russian GDP Projections for 2016-2018, Baseline Scenario (June 2016)

-1Q 20162Q 20163Q 20164Q 20162016 total2017 total2018 total
Urals crude oil price, USD per barrel32.641.942.842.8404040
GDP, RUR billion18 80519 76422 44723 65484 66989 79294 744
GDP physical volume index, % to appropriate period of previous year98.898.598.999.198.8100.3101.4

Source: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy.

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy: Russian GDP Projections for 2016-2018, Optimistic Scenario (June 2016)

-1Q 20162Q 20163Q 20164Q 20162016 total2017 total2018 total
Urals crude oil price, USD per barrel32.641.952.852.8455060
GDP, RUR billion18 80519 76422 82924 05385 45191 31197 430
GDP physical volume index, % to appropriate period of previous year98.898.5100.2100.299.5100.9101.9

Source: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy.

On April 18, 2016 Gaidar Institute published April issue of Current Monitoring of Economic Situation in Russia featuring experts’ projections of key macroeconomic indicators for 2016-2017 under baseline and optimistic scenarios.[433]

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy: Russian GDP Projections for 2016-2017, Baseline Scenario (April 2016)

-1Q 20162Q 20163Q 20164Q 20162016 total2017 total
Urals crude oil price, USD per barrel323535383540
GDP, RUR billion18 64320 40521 65423 80484 50691 243
GDP physical volume index, % to appropriate period of previous year97.699.296.498.798100

Source: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy.

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy: Russian GDP Projections for 2016-2017, Optimistic Scenario (April 2016)

-1Q 20162Q 20163Q 20164Q 20162016 total2017 total
Urals crude oil price, USD per barrel325555.957.15055
GDP, RUR billion18 34021 00822 40624 66686 41993 953
GDP physical volume index, % to appropriate period of previous year97.9102.598.7100.499.9100.8

Source: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy.

On January 25, 2016 Gaidar Institute released new issue of Current Monitoring of Economic Situation in Russia with updated GDP projections for 2016-2017.[434] The forecast assumes two major scenarios depending on Urals crude oil price dynamics. Under the base scenario GDP is expected to contract by 1.4% in 2016 and by 0.3% in 2017 given the average annual Urals crude oil prices projections of USD 35 and USD 40 per barrel, correspondingly. The optimistic scenario assumes 0.4% contraction in 2016 with further slight growth at 0.9% in 2017 given the average annual Urals crude oil prices at USD 50 and USD 55 per barrel, correspondingly.

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy: Russian GDP Projections for 2016-2017, Base Scenario (January 2016)

-1Q 20162Q 20163Q 20164Q 20162016 total2017 total
Urals crude oil price, USD per barrel303535403540
GDP, RUR billion17 32418 80020 78721 91578 82685 270
GDP physical volume index, % to appropriate period of previous year98.599.5100.596.098.699.7

Source: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy.

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy: Russian GDP Projections for 2016-2017, Optimistic Scenario (January 2016)

-1Q 20162Q 20163Q 20164Q 20162016 total2017 total
Urals crude oil price, USD per barrel35.054.054.556.550.055.0
GDP, RUR billion17 33819 12121 17322 45980 09083 990
GDP physical volume index, % to appropriate period of previous year99.5100.399.499.299.6100.9

Source: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy.

On September 28, 2015 Gaidar Institute presented publication on scenarios of social and economic development of the Russian Federation in 2015-2016 with 3 scenarios elaborated.[435] All scenarios assume that GDP is to contract by 3.2% in 2015 at average annual Urals crude oil price at USD 55 per barrel with GDP dynamics turning slightly positive in 2016 only under optimistic scenario.

The pessimistic scenario projects Urals oil price at USD 40 per barrel for 2016 accompanied by substantial GDP contraction at 3.1%.

Under the base scenario 2016 Urals oil price will be at USD 55 per barrel, while GDP contraction will amount to 1.6%.


Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy: Forecasts of Quarterly GDP Growth in 2015-2016 (base scenario), % to appropriate quarter of previous year


Source: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy (actual data for 1Q and 2Q 2015 are presented).

The optimistic scenario assumes Urals oil price at USD 70 per barrel in 2016 with nearly flat GDP growth by 0.3%.



Institute of National Economy Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences



On May 17, 2017 the Institute issued the updated quarterly forecast of the Russian economic indicators for 2017-2019 (#38).[436] Referring to the inertial scenario of the forecast, the Russian GDP is projected to grow by 1.5% in 2017, 1.6% in 2018 and 2.4% in 2019 under the gradually increasing crude oil price.

Institute of National Economy Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences (May 2017)

IndicatorUnit20152016201720182019
GDP growth% y/y-2.8-0.21.51.62.4
GDP in current pricesRUR trillion83.286.090.796.6102.9
GDP based on PPPUSD trillion3.2573.2003.2003.3183.456
GDP based on PPP per capitaUSD thousand22.221.821.822.523.5
GDP based on PPP per capita% to the U.S.36.935.133.633.633.8
RUR/USD rate (PPP)Ratio26.127.127.828.529.1
Avg. annual Brent crude oil priceUSD per barrel5244535557

Source: Quarterly macroeconomic forecast of Institute of National Economy Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

On January 30, 2017 the institute released the quarterly forecast for 2017-2019 (forecast date: January 18, 2017).[437] Under the updated projections of inertial scenario the Russian GDP is expected to grow by 1.6% in 2017, 1.2% in 2018 and 2.1% in 2019.The GDP contraction for 2016 is estimated at 0.6%. The average annual Brent crude oil price is projected at USD 55 per barrel in 2017, USD 59 per barrel in 2018 and USD 61 per barrel in 2019.

Institute of National Economy Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences (January 2017)

IndicatorUnit20152016201720182019
GDP growth% y/y-3.0-0.61.61.22.1
GDPRUR trillion81.382.788.292.597.0
GDP based on PPPUSD trillion3.1623.0643.1573.2073.274
GDP based on PPP per capitaUSD thousand21.620.921.521.822.2
GDP based on PPP per capita% to the U.S.35.833.733.132.231.6
RUR/USD rate (PPP)Ratio26.127.328.229.129.8

Source: Quarterly macroeconomic forecast of Institute of National Economy Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences (actual data for 2015 and 2016 estimates are presented).

On October 23, 2016 the Institute presented updated quarterly macroeconomic forecast for 2016-2019.[438] According to the projections, under the inertial scenario the Russian GDP is expected to contract by 0.7% in 2016 with further growth by 1.5% in 2017, 2.0% in 2018 and 2.9% in 2019.

Institute of National Economy Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences (October 2016)

IndicatorUnit20152016201720182019
GDP growth% y/y-3.7-0.71.52.02.9
GDPRUR trillion80.884.591.9100.4109.4
GDP based on PPPUSD trillion3.1563.0993.2303.3913.586
GDP based on PPP per capitaUSD thousand21.921.122.023.024.4
GDP based on PPP per capita% to the U.S.36.534.134.034.234.7
RUR/USD rate (PPP)Ratio26.227.728.929.930.7

Source: Quarterly macroeconomic forecast of Institute of National Economy Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences (actual data for 2015 are presented).

On June 10, 2016 the Institute released Forecast of the Russian Macroeconomic Indicators for 2016-2018 featuring positive and inertial scenarios of the Russian economy developments.[439] Referring to the document, under the optimistic scenario the Russian GDP is projected to contract by 1.0% in 2016 with further growth by 1.5% in 2017 and 2.2% in 2018. Under the inertial scenario the GDP growth rates are projected to be lower in 2017-2018 at 0.7% and 1.8%, correspondingly.



Economic Expert Group



On June 24, 2016 the article called “Scenarios of the Russian Economy Development and Their Consideration” featuring projections of the key economic indicators for 2016 was released by Economic Expert Group.[440] Referring to the article, the Russian GDP is expected to contract by 0.8% in 2016 under the average annual Urals crude oil price at USD 37 per barrel.



Centre for Strategic Research



On June 1, 2017 Kommersant newspaper disclosed some of the indicators of the economic forecast prepared by the Centre for Strategic Research in the course of elaboration of the Russian economic development strategy until 2035.[441] The target scenario of the forecast assumes the facilitation of the Russian GDP growth rates from 1.6% in 2017 to 3.2% in 2018 and to 4.2% by 2027 with further gradual deceleration to 3.6% by 2035.

On May 19, 2017 Mr. Alexey Kudrin, the head of the Centre for Strategic Research, commented to the press that he expects the Russian GDP to grow by 1.2-1.5% in 2017.[442]

On April 11, 2017 Mr. Alexey Kudrin, the head of the Centre for Strategic Research, published the Centre’s Russian GDP projections until 2020 under inertial and target scenarios.[443]

On November 7, 2016 selected projections from the joint forecast of the Centre and the Ministry of Economic Development were released by TASS information agency.[444] According to the forecast, the Russian GDP growth rates will be increasing from 2.0-2.5% in the medium term to 4.0-4.4% in 2025-2030. By the year 2025 the GDP is expected to grow by 30% as compared to 2016, while by 2035 the GDP is projected to increase by 100%. The projections assume extensive investment in healthcare, education and science and the gradual shift towards non-rentier economy.



The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw)



On March 16, 2017 wiiw released Spring 2017 forecast featuring the Russian GDP growth projections for 2017-2019 at 1.7%, 1.7% and 2.0%, correspondingly.[445]

On November 10, 2016 wiiw presented its Autumn 2016 Forecast. Referring to the press conference presentation, the GDP growth projections for Russia for 2016-2018 have been retained at -0.8%, +0.8% and +1.8%, correspondingly.[446]

On June 30, 2016 the institute released Forecast Report for 22 countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe (CESEE) for 2016-2018.[447] Among other indicators, the report features the Russian GDP growth projections for 2016-2018. The institute expects the Russian GDP to contract by 0.8% in 2016 with further growth by 0.8% in 2017 and 1.8% in 2018.



DIW Berlin



On June 22, 2017 DIW Berlin released the update of Economic Outlook featuring the Russian GDP growth projections for 2017-2018 indicated at 0.9% and 1.6%, correspondingly.[448]

On March 17, 2017 DIW Berlin issued new Economic Outlook with the Russian GDP growth projections for 2017-2018 updated to 1.1% and 1.5%, correspondingly.[449]

On December 15, 2016 DIW Berlin released Economic Bulletin 50 / 2016 featuring the revised Russian GDP growth projections for 2016-2018 indicated at -0.7%, 1.2% and 1.9%, correspondingly.[450]

On September 14, 2016 DIW Berlin published DIW Economic Bulletin 36 / 2016 with updated Russian GDP growth projections for 2016-2018 at -0.8%, +1.2% and +1.9%, correspondingly.[451]

On June 17, 2016 DIW Berlin released DIW Economic Bulletin 24/25 2016 featuring the Russian GDP projections for 2016-2017 at -1.1% and +0.5%, correspondingly.[452]



CESifo Group Munich



On June 12, 2017 CESifo released ifo Economic Forecast for 2017/2018 with the Russian GDP growth projections revised to 0.5% for 2017 and 1.5% for 2018.[453]

On April 12, 2017 CESifo published Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Spring 2017[454] featuring the updated Russian macroeconomic projections for 2017-2018. Referring to the forecast, the Russian GDP is expected to grow by 1.3% in 2017 and 1.5% in 2018.

On March 1, 2017 CESifo released EEAG Economic Outlook featuring the updated macroeconomic projections for Russia.[455] Referring to the document, the Russian GDP is projected to grow by 0.8% in 2017.

On December 16, 2016 CESifo released Economic Forecast for 2016-2018 (Germany’s Robust Economy Faces a Year of Uncertain International Economic Policy).[456] The forecast features the updated Russian GDP growth projections for 2016-2018 indicated at -0.5%, 0.8% and 1.5%, correspondingly.

On September 29, 2016 Ifo published Autumn 2016 economic forecast called “Deutsche Wirtschaft gut ausgelastet – Wirtschaftspolitik neu ausrichten” (in German) featuring the updated Russian GDP growth projections for 2016-2018 at -0.8%, 1.1% and 1.7%, correspondingly.[457]

On June 16, 2016 Ifo released Economic Forecast 2016/2017, where the institute provided GDP growth projections for Russia for 2016-2017 at -0.9% and +0.8%, correspondingly.[458]



Kiel Institute for the World Economy



On June 15, 2017 Kiel Institute released the updated economic forecast with the Russian GDP growth projections indicated at 1.2% for 2017 and 1.5% for 2018.[459]

On March 15, 2017 Kiel Institute released Mid-Term Forecast for Germany (Mittelfristprojektion für Deutschland im Frühjahr 2017) featuring the Russian GDP projections for 2017-2021.[460] The Institute assumes the Russian GDP growth to remain at the moderate level not exceeding 2.0% per annum in the medium-run projecting 1.1% growth in 2017, 1.5% in 2018, 1.8% in 2019, 1.7% in 2020 and 1.5% in 2021.

On March 9, 2017 Kiel Institute issued The Kiel Business Cycle Forecast of Spring 2017 with the Russian GDP growth projections for 2017-2018 updated to 1.1% and 1.5%, correspondingly.[461]

On December 15, 2016 Kiel Institute released Winter 2016 Economic Outlook for the world economy featuring the updated Russian GDP growth projections for 2016-2018 indicated at -0.6%, 1.2% and 1.7%, correspondingly.[462]

On September 8, 2016 Kiel Institute published its Economic Outlook for Autumn 2016 with the Russian GDP growth projections for 2016-2018 revised to -0.8%, 1.3% and 2.0%, correspondingly.[463] Besides this, Kiel Institute also released medium-term projections until 2021.[464] The Russian GDP is expected to demonstrate lacklustre performance in the medium-run with growth rates projected at 1.8% in 2019, 1.7% in 2020 and 1.5% in 2021.

On June 16, 2016 Kiel Institute released its Summer 2016 Economic Outlook on the world economy, which features the Russian GDP growth projections for 2016-2017 at -1.2% and +1.3%, correspondingly.[465]



Halle Institute for Economic Research



On June 9, 2016 Halle institute provided the global macroeconomic forecasts for 2016-2017 in the report called “The German Economy Benefits from Strong Domestic Demand” by Oliver Holtemöller.[466] Referring to the report, the Russian GDP is expected to contract by 1.2% in 2016 with further growth by 1.2% in 2017.



Bank of Finland (BOFIT)



On March 30, 2017 BOFIT published Forecast for Russia for 2017-2019 with the GDP growth projection indicated at 1.5% throughout the forecast period.[467]

On September 29, 2016 BOFIT released updated Forecast for Russia for 2016-2018[468] featuring the GDP projections. The Russian GDP is expected to contract by 1.0% in 2016 with further growth by 1.0% in 2017 and 1.5% in 2018. The average annual crude oil price is expected to increase to the level approaching USD 55 per barrel by 2018.

On March 21, 2016 the macroeconomic forecast for Russia for 2016-2018 was released by BOFIT (Institute for Economies in Transition of Bank of Finland).[469] In accordance with the forecast, the Russian GDP is projected to contract by 3% in 2016 in case the average annual crude oil price stays slightly above USD 40 per barrel. BOFIT also projects further flat growth (0%) in 2017 and minor growth at 1% in 2018.



German Council of Economic Experts (Sachverständigenrat)



On March 20, 2017 the Council released “Konjunkturprognose 2017 und 2018” featuring the updated Russian GDP growth projections for 2017-2018 indicated at +1.4% and +1.8%, correspondingly.[470]

On November 2, 2016 the Council published “Zeit für Reformen” (Time for Reforms) study featuring the Russian GDP growth projections for 2016-2017 at -1.4% and +1.2%, correspondingly.[471]



Economist Intelligence Unit



On June 14, 2017 EIU released the updated Europe Growth and Inflation Forecast with the Russian GDP growth projections revised to 1.6% for 2017, 1.4% for 2018, 1.7% for 2019, 1.6% for 2020 and 1.7% for 2021.[472]

On May 18, 2017 EIU provided the update to Europe Growth and Inflation Forecast.[473] The projected Russian GDP growth rates for 2017-2021 have been revised to 1.8% for 2017, 1.5% for 2018, 1.6% for 2019-2020 and 1.9% for 2021.

On April 19, 2017 the EIU released the updated Europe Growth and Inflation Forecast.[474] The Russian GDP growth projections were retained at 0.9% for 2017, 1.3% for 2018, 1.5% for 2019, 1.7% for 2020 and 1.6% for 2021.

On March 15, 2017 EIU provided the updated Europe Growth and Inflation Forecast with the Russian GDP growth projections for 2017-2021 retained at previous level (0.9% for 2017, 1.3% for 2018, 1.5% for 2019, 1.7% for 2020 and 1.6% for 2021).[475]

On February 15, 2017 EIU released new revision of Europe Growth and Inflation Forecast for 2017-2021.[476] The Russian GDP growth projections were kept at 0.9% for 2017, 1.3% for 2018, 1.5% for 2019, 1.7% for 2020 and 1.6% for 2021.

On January 18, 2017 EIU revised the Europe Growth and Inflation Forecast for 2016-2021[477]. The Russian GDP contraction estimate for 2016 was confirmed at 0.6%, while the projections for the coming years were corrected to 0.9% for 2017, 1.3% for 2018, 1.5% for 2019, 1.7% for 2020 and 1.6% for 2021.

On December 14, 2016 EIU released the updated Europe Growth and Inflation Forecast[478] featuring the revised Russian GDP growth projections for 2016-2021. EIU expects 0.6% contraction in 2016 with further moderate growth at 0.8% in 2017, 1.2% in 2018, 1.6% in 2019, 1.7% in 2020 and 1.6% in 2021.

On November 16, 2016 the updated Europe growth and inflation forecast was published by EIU with updated GDP growth projections for Russia.[479] EIU expects the Russian GDP to contract by 0.8% with further mediocre growth by 0.7% in 2017, 1.1% in 2018, 1.4% in 2019, 1.6% in 2020 and 1.8% in 2021.

On November 1, 2016 EIU released the planned update of the Russian GDP growth and inflation projections until 2021 with no changes as compared to October 19, 2016.[480]

On October 19, 2016 EIU provided updated GDP growth and inflation projections in its Europe growth and inflation forecast until the year 2021.[481] The GDP growth projections for Russia have not changed with expected contraction at 0.8% in 2016 and the moderate growth in 2017-2021 (0.7% growth in 2017, 1.2% growth in 2018, 1.1% growth in 2019, 1.6% growth in 2020 and 1.5% growth in 2021).

On September 14, 2016 EIU updated its Europe growth and inflation forecast until 2021.[482] The GDP projection for 2016 remained the same (0.8% contraction), while the projections for 2017-2021 have been revised with expected GDP growth rates not exceeding 1.6% pa (0.7% growth in 2017, 1.2% growth in 2018, 1.1% growth in 2019, 1.6% growth in 2020 and 1.5% growth in 2021).

On August 17, 2016 EIU revised the Russian GDP projections for 2016-2020 assuming 0.8% contraction in 2016 with further moderate growth not exceeding 1.6% pa in 2017-2020 (1.1% in 2017, 1.6% in 2018, 1.3% in 2019 and 1.5% in 2020).[483]



PwC



On June 14, 2017 PwC released the new Global Economy Watch bulletin retaining the Russian GDP growth projections for 2017-2018 at 1.1% and 1.4%, respectively.[484] The average annual GDP growth projection for 2019-2023 stayed at 1.5%.

On April 21, 2017 PwC revised the Russian GDP growth and inflation projections.[485] The Russian GDP is expected to grow by 1.1% in 2017 and 1.4% in 2018. The projected average GDP growth rates for 2019-2023 were retained at 1.5%.

On February 15, 2017 (the specified date is not the exact one) PwC updated its Russian GDP growth projections for 2017-2018 to 1.0% and 1.1%, correspondingly.[486] The average annual GDP growth rate projection for 2019-2023 was indicated at 1.5%.

On December 14, 2016 PwC updated its monthly economic forecast and provided the Russian GDP growth projections for 2016-2018 at -1.6%, 0.9% and 1.5%, correspondingly.[487]

On June 14, 2016 PwC released its monthly update of the Global Economy Watch featuring the Russian GDP projections for 2016-2018.[488] According to the update, the Russian GDP is expected to contract by 1.9% in 2016 with further growth by 0.9% in 2017 and 1.5% in 2018.



Morgan Stanley



On November 28, 2016 the Russian mass media cited Bloomberg and Morgan Stanley, which revised the Russian GDP growth projection for 2017 from 1.4% to 1.2%.[489] Morgan Stanley projects the average annual Urals crude oil price to increase from USD 42 per barrel in 2016 to USD 50 per barrel in 2017 and USD 53 per barrel in 2018. Analysts of the bank believe that in case no reforms are implemented in Russia the GDP growth in 2017-2019 will be limited by 1.1%, while the long-term growth will not exceed 1.8% per annum.

On July 20, 2016 Interfax news agency reported that Morgan Stanley revised Russian GDP projections for 2016-2017 to 0.6% contraction in 2016 and 1.4% growth in 2017.[490] The underlying average annual Urals crude oil price is expected at USD 43 per barrel in 2016 and USD 50 per barrel in 2017.

On March 14, 2016 the mass media reported that Morgan Stanley announced the Russian GDP contraction projection at 2.4% with the budget deficit at 4.2% under the average annual Urals crude oil price at USD 34 per barrel.[491]

On February 9, 2016 Interfax news agency informed that Morgan Stanley worsened its GDP contraction projection for Russia for 2016 from 0.8% to 2.1%.[492] The GDP growth projection for 2017 was also revised from 1.7% to 0.9%. The major reasons for revision were worsening average annual Urals crude oil prices forecasts for 2016-2017. Crude oil price forecast for 2016 was corrected from USD 50 per barrel to USD 35 per barrel, while 2017 forecast was corrected from USD 56 per barrel to USD 39 per barrel.

On January 26, 2016 Bloomberg released Russian GDP forecast of Morgan Stanley for 2016 among GDP projections of other players (provided to Bloomberg on Jan 15).[493] Referring to forecast, Russian GDP is expected to contract by 0.8% in 2016.

On November 30, 2015 the mass media informed that Morgan Stanley revisited GDP developments projections for Russia announcing 3.9% contraction for 2015 and 0.8% contraction in 2016.[494]

On October 16, 2015 Morgan Stanley confirmed its projections on Russian GDP dynamics in 2016 (-1.6%).[495]

On September 11, 2015 in its Global Macro Outlook Morgan Stanley revisited Russian GDP projections for 2016 and 2017 now assuming 1.3% GDP contraction in 2016 and further slight growth at 1.6% in 2017.[496] The GDP growth over 2018-2020 is expected at moderate 1.5% pa.

On July 10, 2015 Morgan Stanley cut Russian GDP recession forecast for 2015 from -5% to -4.2% and 2016 forecast from -1.8% to -1.2%. The forecast was made assuming average annual oil prices at the level of USD 62 per barrel in 2015 and USD 67 per barrel in 2016. The major reasons for improvement have been positive correction in oil prices, reduction of the key rate by the Central Bank ahead of expectations, as well as overperforming influence of net exports benefiting from weak national currency.[497]



JP Morgan



On September 21, 2016 JP Morgan revised its GDP contraction projection for 2016 to 0.6%, while 2017 GDP growth projection was revised to 1.1%.[498]

On March 23, 2016 JP Morgan revised the Russian GDP contraction forecast for 2016 to 0.8% from 1.5% projected earlier. The average annual crude oil price projection for 2016 was also corrected to USD 38 per barrel.[499]

On February 3, 2016 Kommersant newspaper cited revised Russian GDP forecast of JP Morgan that assumes 1.5% contraction in 2016.[500] The new projection assumes average annual crude oil price at USD 31 per barrel in 2016 (price at USD 40 per barrel was forecasted previously).

On January 26, 2016 Bloomberg released Russian GDP forecast of JP Morgan for 2016 among GDP projections of other players (provided to Bloomberg on Jan 22).[501] Referring to forecast, Russian GDP is expected to contract by 0.5% in 2016.

On August 12, 2015 Bloomberg released revised JPMorgan’s Russian GDP forecast for 2015-2016.[502] Referring to forecast, Russian GDP contraction will total 3.7% in 2015 (no change to previous revision), while for 2016 GDP projections were cut to 1% growth (1.8% in previous revision) primarily due to revisiting average Brent oil prices developments forecast (USD 52.5 per barrel in 2016 vs. USD 71.5 per barrel in previous revision).



Bank of America Merrill Lynch



On December 13, 2016 BofA Merrill Lynch released the global economy report, which was cited by the local media.[503] Referring to the report, the Russian GDP is expected to contract by 0.5% in 2016 followed by minor 1.1% growth in 2017 and 1.4% growth in 2018.

On October 3, 2016 the mass media cited the report BofA’s report “Russia: hawkish guidance to dovish story” featuring the Russian GDP growth projections for 2016-2017.[504]

BofA projects the Russian GDP to contract by 0.5% in 2016 under the average annual Urals crude oil price at USD 43 per barrel. 2017 projection is presented under the baseline and negative scenarios. The baseline scenario assumes the Urals crude oil price at USD 59 per barrel and the Russian GDP growth at 1.1%. Under the negative scenario the crude is expected to be as low as USD 25 per barrel, and the Russian GDP is projected to contract by 2.4%.

On February 8, 2016 Bloomberg cited Mr. Alberto Ades, Head of Global Economic Research of BofA, who provided projection of the Russian GDP contraction at 0.5% in 2016 assuming the average annual crude oil price at USD 46 per barrel.[505]

On January 26, 2016 Bloomberg released Russian GDP forecast of BofA for 2016 among GDP projections of other players (provided to Bloomberg on Jan 22).[506] Referring to forecast, Russian GDP is to demonstrate flat developments (0.0%) in 2016.

On December 11, 2015 in the course of business breakfast dedicated to the Russian economy developments, which was organised by Vedomosti newspaper, Mr. Vladimir Osakovsky, Chief Economist on Russia and CIS, commented that he expects nearly flat (i.e. around 0%) GDP growth in 2016.[507]

On August 31, 2015 Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research released revised Russian GDP forecast for 2015 and 2016. Referring to new forecast, Russian GDP is expected to contract by 3.7% in 2015 (previous revision: 2.8% contraction) and to show nearly flat dynamics in 2016 with 0.3% growth (previous revision: 1.1% growth).[508]



Deutsche Bank



On April 6, 2017 Deutche Bank updated its GDP growth forecast for Russia indicating 1.6% growth for 2017.[509]

On January 26, 2016 Bloomberg released Russian GDP forecast of Deutsche Bank for 2016 among GDP projections of other players (provided to Bloomberg on Jan 24).[510] Referring to forecast, Russian GDP is expected to contract by 0.7% in 2016.

On August 31, 2015 Deutsche Bank released revised Russian GDP projections.[511] The GDP contraction forecast for 2015 was changed to 3.8% (previous revision: 3.3%). The GDP is projected to contract by 1.2% in 2016 with further weak growth at 0.4% in 2017. The major reason for revision was turbulence at the world financial and commodity markets including the oil market. The Brent oil price is forecasted to average USD 56 per barrel in 2015 (previous forecast: USD 60 per barrel), USD 57 per barrel in 2016 (previous forecast: USD 70 per barrel) and USD 63 per barrel in 2017 (previous forecast: USD 75 per barrel).


Russian GDP Projections by Deutsche Bank for 2015-2017 (August 2015)


Source: 1Prime.



Citigroup



On January 11, 2016 the Russian mass media cited report of Citi Research called Russian Macro View.[512] According to the report, the Russian GDP is expected to contract by 0.5% in case average annual oil prices will be at USD 50 per barrel. For the scenario when the average oil prices fall as low as USD 30 per barrel in 2016, the projected GDP contraction is 1.5%.

On September 28, 2015 Citigroup was reported to issue a Russian economy developments review.[513] According to the review, Russian GDP is forecasted to contract by 3.7% in 2015 with further slight growth at 0.5% in 2016. The mass media also cited Mr. Ivan Chakarov, Citigroup’s Chief Economist on Russia and CIS, who stated falling oil prices to be the major reason for GDP contraction instead of sanctions (90% vs. 10% weight). He also mentioned that a decrease in Brent crude oil price by USD 10 per barrel leads to about 0.8% contraction of the Russian GDP.



HSBC



On October 1, 2015 the mass media reported that HSBC revised the Russian GDP projections in the quarterly report dedicated to European economy developments.[514] The GDP contraction forecast was corrected to -4% in 2015 (-3.5% in previous forecast) with expected further contraction at -2% in 2016 (-1.5% in previous forecast). The correction took place primarily due to negative oil prices dynamics in the second half of 2015 with expected further economic developments deterioration in the last months of 2015.



ING Group



On February 9, 2016 Vedomosti newspaper cited report of Mr. Dmitry Polevoi, ING’s economist on Russia and CIS, who released revised Russian GDP developments projections for 2016-2017.[515] The bank projects Russian GDP contraction at 1.7% for 2016 under the average annual crude oil price at USD 30-40 per barrel and further 1.1% growth in 2017 under the average annual crude oil price at USD 50-65 per barrel. The previous GDP contraction forecast for 2016 was at 0.7% under the average annual crude oil price at USD 35-50 per barrel.

On January 26, 2016 Bloomberg released Russian GDP forecast of ING Group for 2016 among GDP projections of other players (provided to Bloomberg on Jan 15).[516] Referring to forecast, Russian GDP is expected to contract by 0.7% in 2016.



Barclays



On February 8, 2016 Bloomberg cited Mr. Daniel Hewitt, a senior emerging-markets economist at Barclays, who provided projection of the Russian GDP contraction at 1.0% in 2016 assuming the average annual crude oil price at USD 37 per barrel.[517]

On January 26, 2016 Bloomberg released Russian GDP forecast of Barclays for 2016 among GDP projections of other players (provided to Bloomberg on Jan 22).[518] Referring to forecast, Russian GDP is to demonstrate flat developments (0.0%) in 2016.

On November 12, 2015 Forbes cited BarCap’s analyst Mr. Daniel Hewitt, who projected the Russian GDP contraction for 2015 to be at 4.0%.[519]



UniCredit Group



On January 9, 2017 Unicredit Bank released CEE Quarterly January 2017 review featuring the Russian GDP growth projections for 2017-2018 indicated at 0.9% and 1.1%, respectively.[520]

On January 26, 2016 Bloomberg released Russian GDP forecast of UniCredit Group for 2016 among GDP projections of other players (provided to Bloomberg on Jan 21).[521] Referring to forecast, Russian GDP is expected to contract by 0.9% in 2016.



Raiffeisen Bank



On June 1, 2017 Raiffeisen released CEE Banking Sector report with the Russian GDP growth projections for 2017-2018 retained at 1.0% and 1.5%, respectively.[522]

On May 18, 2017 Mr. Stanislav Murashov, the analyst of Raiffeisen Bank, in his comments to 1Prime information agency confirmed the bank’s Russian GDP growth projection for 2017 at 1.0%.[523]

On March 27, 2017 Raiffeisen Bank published the Central & Eastern European Strategy for 2Q 2017 featuring the updated Russian GDP growth projections for 2017-2018.[524] Referring to the document, the bank’s projections were indicated at 1.0% for 2017 and 1.5% for 2018. The bank also provided consensus projections for 2017-2018 at 1.1% and 1.5%, correspondingly.

On December 21, 2016 Raiffeisen Bank released the Central & Eastern European Strategy for 1Q 2017 featuring the updated macroeconomic projections for Russia.[525] According to the document, the bank expects the Russian GDP to contract by 0.5% in 2016 with further growth by 1.0% in 2017 and 1.5% in 2018. The presented consensus forecast envisages 0.6% contraction in 2016 followed by 1.2% and 1.5% growth in 2017-2018, correspondingly.

On September 28, 2016 Raiffeisen Bank International published Central & Eastern European Strategy for 4Q 2016 featuring the bank’s and consensus Russian GDP growth projections for 2016-2018.[526] The bank’s projections assume 0.5% GDP contraction in 2016 with further growth by 1.0% in 2017 and 1.5% in 2018. The consensus projections envisage 0.6% contraction in 2016, 1.2% growth in 2017 and 1.7% growth in 2018.

On July 14, 2016 Raiffeisen Bank International released annual country report on Russia, where the GDP growth projections for 2016-2017 stayed at -0.5% and +1.0%, correspondingly.[527]

On July 8, 2016 Raiffeisen Bank International released the report called “Brexit causes roller-coaster ride in third quarter” with revised Russian GDP growth projections for 2016-2017.[528] The GDP contraction forecast for 2016 was changed from -2.0% to -0.5% due to recovery tendencies owing to “climbing commodities prices and net exports”. The GDP growth projection for 2017 was corrected to 1.0%.

On June 9, 2016 Raiffeisen Bank International released annual CEE Banking Sector Report, where the Russian GDP contraction for 2016 was projected at 2.0%, and the further growth at 1.5% is expected for 2017.[529]

On June 6, 2016 the analysts of Raiffeisen revised the Russian GDP contraction projection for 2016 from 2.0% to 0.5% primarily due to positive effect of rouble devaluation on net exports that appeared earlier than expected.[530]

On February 3, 2016 Ms. Maria Pomelnikova, analyst of Raiffeisen, provided the bank’s projection on the Russian GDP contraction in 2016 at 2% assuming the average annual crude oil price at USD 40 per barrel.[531]

On November 16, 2015 the Russian mass media cited a presentation of Raiffeisen Research analysts, who commented that GDP contraction in Russia in 2015 can be lower than previous forecast (4.0%).[532] At the same time, they have corrected GDP developments projection for 2016 to a flat growth (0.0%) due to the lack of growth drivers.

On July 10, 2015 Raiffeisen Research released country report for Russia.[533] Referring to the report, Russian GDP contraction at 4.0% was projected for 2015 with further slight growth at 0.5% in 2016.



Societe Generale



On January 26, 2016 Bloomberg released Russian GDP forecast of Societe Generale for 2016 among GDP projections of other players (provided to Bloomberg on Jan 15).[534] Referring to forecast, Russian GDP is expected to contract by 1.0% in 2016.



Nomura Securities



On January 26, 2016 Bloomberg released Russian GDP forecast of Nomura Securities for 2016 among GDP projections of other players (provided to Bloomberg on Jan 22).[535] Referring to forecast, Russian GDP is expected to contract by 1.0% in 2016.



BNP Paribas



On April 27, 2017 BNP Paribas released macroeconomic outlook for Russia (The Recovery Is Taking Shape) with the Russian GDP growth projections for 2017-2018 indicated at 1.8% and 1.4%, respectively.[536]

On October 11, 2016 BNP Paribas published the macroeconomic update on the Russian economy called “Russie: Difficile reprise”[537], where the Russian GDP growth projections for 2016-2017 have been revised to 0.0% and +2.2%, correspondingly.

On July 8, 2016 BNP Paribas revised its Russian GDP projections for 2016-2017 in the report called “Russie: Premiers espoirs de reprise”.[538] Referring to the report, the Russian GDP is expected to contract by 0.5% in 2016 with further growth by 2.0% in 2017.

On April 7, 2016 BNP Paribas published brief review on the Russian economy developments called “Russie: Hausse des risques”.[539] The paper features revised GDP contraction projection for 2016 at 1.8% (2.0% was projected previously) with no change in 2017 GDP growth projection (0.6%).

On March 31, 2016 BNP Paribas released the Russian GDP forecast until 2020.[540]


BNP Paribas: Russian GDP Projections for 2016-2020 (March 2016)


Source: BNP Paribas.

On January 26, 2016 Bloomberg released Russian GDP forecast of BNP Paribas for 2016 among GDP projections of other players (provided to Bloomberg on Jan 14).[541] Referring to forecast, Russian GDP is expected to contract by 0.7% in 2016.



CommerzBank



Important note: Commerzbank updates its forecasts weekly in Woche im Fokus bulletin. Starting from July 2016 only information on changes of existing projections will be presented here, while the date of the recent release of projections can be found in GDP Growth Forecasts Datasheet.

On December 2, 2016 CommerzBank amended its Russian GDP growth projections with 2018 projection indicated at +2.0% retaining previous 2016-2017 forecasts.[542]

On November 18, 2016 CommerzBank revised the Russian GDP growth projection for 2016 to -0.6% keeping projection for 2017 at +1.3%.[543]

On July 1, 2016 CommerzBank released the new issue of Woche im Fokus weekly research, where it retained the Russian GDP growth projections for 2016-2017 at -1.0% and 1.3%, correspondingly.[544]

On June 10, 2016 Commerzbank published the revised Russian GDP growth projections for 2016-2017 in Woche im Fokus, a weekly economic research paper.[545] Referring to the updated forecast, the Russian GDP is projected to contract by 1.0% in 2016 with further growth by 1.3% in 2017.

On January 26, 2016 Bloomberg released Russian GDP forecast of CommerzBank for 2016 among GDP projections of other players (provided to Bloomberg on Jan 22).[546] Referring to forecast, Russian GDP is expected to demonstrate slight growth at 0.3% in 2016.



ABN Amro



On January 26, 2016 Bloomberg released Russian GDP forecast of ABN Amro for 2016 among GDP projections of other players (provided to Bloomberg on Jan 21).[547] Referring to forecast, Russian GDP is expected to demonstrate slight growth at 0.5% in 2016.



Allianz Group



On January 13, 2017 Allianz provided the revised macroeconomic forecasts for BRIC countries featuring the updated Russian GDP growth projections for 2017-2018.[548] Allianz estimated the Russian GDP contraction at 0.6% for 2016 expecting further growth by 1.5% in 2017 and 2.0% in 2018.

On October 28, 2016 Allianz released forecast tables for BRIC countries with the Russian GDP growth projections for 2016-2017 staying unchanged at -0.6% and +1.5%, correspondingly.[549]

On June 13, 2016 Allianz published macroeconomic forecast tables for BRICS with projections of key macroeconomic indicators for 2016-2017.[550] Allianz projects the Russian GDP to contract by 0.6% in 2016 with further 1.5% growth in 2017.



Euler Hermes (Part of Allianz)



On June 22, 2017 EH released Weekly Export Risk Outlook #24 with the Russian GDP growth projection for 2017 staying at 1.3%.[551]

On May 3, 2017 Euler Hermes published Weekly Export Risk Outlook, where the Russian GDP growth projection for 2017 was retained at 1.3%.[552]

On March 30, 2017 EH released country report on Russia (Return to Modest Growth in 2017 While Risks Remain) with the updated GDP growth projections for 2017 and 2018 indicated at 1.3% and 1.6%, correspondingly.[553]

On February 8, 2017 EH confirmed the Russian GDP growth projection for 2017 at 1.0% in the Weekly Export Risk Outlook.[554]

On January 21, 2017 EH released the Economic Outlook January 2017 with the Russian GDP growth projections for 2017-2018 indicated at 1.0% and 1.2%, correspondingly.[555]

On January 11, 2017 EH published Weekly Export Risk Outlook featuring the Russian GDP growth estimate for 2016 at -0.6% and 2017 growth projection at +1.0%.[556]

On March 18, 2016 Euler Hermes released updated country report for Russia featuring GDP growth and inflation projections for 2016-2017.[557] According to the report, the Russian GDP is expected to contract by 0.9% in 2016 with further growth by 1.0% in 2017.



Berenberg Bank



Important note: Berenberg Bank updates its forecasts weekly in Macroausblick bulletin. Starting from January 2017 only information on changes of existing projections will be presented here, while the date of the recent release of projections can be found in GDP Growth Forecasts Datasheet.

On May 19, 2017 Berenberg Bank released Osteuropa report featuring the revised Russian GDP growth projections for 2017-2018 indicated at 1.3% and 2.1%, respectively.[558]

On February 24, 2017 Berenberg Bank provided the updated Russian GDP growth projections for 2017-2018 in the new weekly issue of Makroausblick 2017.[559] The GDP contraction estimate for 2016 was revised to 0.3% (0.5% under previous estimate), while GDP growth rates for 2017-2018 were projected at 1.7% and 2.1%, correspondingly (1.6% and 2.2% under previous projections).

On January 27, 2017 Berenberg published new revision of Makroausblick 2017 with the Russian GDP growth projection for 2018 revised from 2.5% to 2.2%.[560]

On January 5, 2017 Berenberg bank released Makroausblick 2017 featuring the revised Russian GDP growth projections. The Russian GDP is estimated to contract by 0.5% in 2016 followed by 1.6% growth in 2017 and 2.5% growth in 2018.[561]

On December 9, 2016 new issue of Makroausblick 2016 was released by Berenberg Bank with the Russian GDP growth projections for 2016-2018 staying unchanged at -0.6%, 1.0% and 1.8%, correspondingly.[562]

On November 21, 2016 Berenberg released the new Osteuropa report with the updated Russian GDP growth projections for 2016-2018 at -0.6%, 1.0% and 1.8%, correspondingly.[563]

On October 14, 2016 the review on the Eastern European economies was released by Berenberg that features updated projections on Russia.[564] The Russian GDP growth is projected at -0.8% in 2016, 1.0% in 2017 and 1.6% in 2018.

On July 14, 2016 Berenberg released macroeconomic review called “Die osteuropäischen Emerging Markets” with the revised Russian GDP projections for 2016-2018.[565] Referring to the document, the Russian GDP is expected to contract by 0.9% in 2016 with nearly flat developments in 2017 (+0.1%) and further lacklustre performance in 2018 (+1.7%).

On June 22, 2016 ostexperte.de web portal released the article “Sommerprognosen: Erwartungen für die russische und die deutsche Konjunktur” by Mr. Klaus Dormann featuring forecasts of a number of German research institutions and other parties on the Russian economy developments.[566] Among other projections, the Russian GDP growth projections by Berenberg Bank for 2016-2018 were cited. Berenberg expects the Russian GDP to contract by 1.4% in 2016, nearly flat developments in 2017 (0.1%) and further moderate growth at 1.7% in 2018.



Danske Bank



On March 31, 2017 Danske Bank published new Emerging Markets Briefer featuring the updated Russian macroeconomic projections.[567] Referring to the document, the Russian GDP is still expected to grow by 1.2% in 2017 and 1.4% in 2018 under the average annual Brent crude oil price at USD 56.6 and USD 57.3 per barrel, correspondingly.

On December 19, 2016 Danske Bank released emerging Markets Briefer (“A murky outlook for emerging markets in 2017”).[568] The briefer features the Russian GDP growth projections for 2016-2018 at -0.6%, 1.2% and 1.4%, correspondingly. The Brent crude oil price is projected to fall by 9.3% in 2016 (the annual average at USD 48.6 per barrel) with further growth by 7.5% in 2017 (USD 52.3 per barrel) and 8.2% in 2018 (USD 56.5 per barrel).

On October 20, 2016 Danske Bank provided flash comment “Russian output and demand: consumer’s dawn”, where the Russian GDP growth projections for 2016 and 2017 were retained at -0.6% and +1.2%, correspondingly.[569]

On September 30, 2016 Danske Bank released Emerging Markets Briefer for September 2016 featuring Russian GDP growth projections for 2016-2017 at -0.6% and 1.2%, correspondingly.[570] The average annual Brent crude oil price is projected at USD 48.6 per barrel in 2016 and USD 52.3 per barrel in 2017.

On March 18, 2016 Danske Bank released the March issue of Emerging Markets Briefer.[571] Referring to the document, the Russian GDP is projected to contract by 2.1% in 2016 under the average annual crude oil price at USD 31 per barrel. The positive GDP growth will only be possible in 2016 in case the average crude oil price hits USD 59 per barrel. The bank also projects the Russian GDP to grow by 1.8% in 2017.



Nordea



On December 1, 2016 Nordea released Economic Outlook Winter 2016 featuring the updated Russian GDP growth projections for 2016-2018 at -0.3%, 1.1% and 1.3%, correspondingly.[572]

On September 6, 2016 Nordea issued Nordea Economic Outlook with updated Russian GDP growth projections for 2016-2018 at -1.0%, 1.1% and 1.3%.[573]

On April 20-21, 2016 Nordea released Russia Economic Outlook[574] and Emerging Markets Outlook[575] confirming projections on the Russian GDP development for 2016-2017 provided in the March issue of Nordea Economic Outlook (-1.3% and 1.1%, correspondingly).

On March 7, 2016 Nordea published quarterly Nordea Economic Outlook (No. 2, 2016) with revised GDP projections for Russia for 2016 and 2017 at -1.3% and +1.1%, correspondingly.[576]



SEB Group



On May 9, 2017 SEB group released the Nordic Outlook for May 2017 with the Russian GDP growth projections for 2017-2018 updated to 1.1% and 1.5%, correspondingly.[577]

On March 31, 2017 SEB published Emerging Markets Explorer March 2017 featuring the Russian GDP growth projections for 2017-2019.[578] The Russian GDP is projected to grow by 1.0% in 2017, 1.5% in 2018 and 1.9% in 2019.

On February 7, 2017 SEB released the new Nordic Outlook with the Russian GDP growth projections for 2017-2018 remaining at 1.0% and 1.5%, correspondingly.[579]

On November 22, 2016 SEB published new issue of Nordic Outlook featuring revised Russian GDP growth projections for 2016-2018 at -0.6%, +1.0% and +1.5%, correspondingly.[580]

On September 15, 2016 SEB released Currency Strategy for September 2016[581], where previous Russian GDP growth projections for 2016-2017 were confirmed.

On August 30, 2016 SEB released Nordic Outlook for August 2016 featuring Russian GDP growth projections for 2016-2018 at -0.4%, 1.0% and 1.5%, correspondingly.[582]

On May 20, 2016 SEB published Nordic Outlook May 2016 with the Russian GDP contraction projection for 2016 revised to -0.8% and GDP growth projection for 2017 revised to 1.0%.[583]

On February 9, 2016 SEB released Nordic Outlook with the Russian GDP development projections for 2016 and 2017 at -1.5% and +1.2%, correspondingly.[584]



Goldman Sachs



On April 8, 2016 Goldman Sachs announced that it revised the Russian GDP growth projection for 2016 from +1.5% to +0.5% due to low oil prices.[585]



Deka Group



On May 10, 2017 Deka published the new issue of Emerging Markets Trends (May 2017) with the Russian GDP growth projections for 2017-2018 retained at 1.2% and 1.4%, correspondingly.[586]

On April 11, 2017 Deka released Volkswirtschaft Prognosen April / Mai 2017 confirming the previous GDP growth projections for Russia (1.2% for 2017 and 1.4% for 2018).[587]

On March 31, 2017 Deka published Emerging Markets Trends April 2017, where the Russian GDP growth projections for 2017-2018 were confirmed at 1.2% and 1.4%, correspondingly.[588]

On March 8, 2017 Deka provided Emerging Markets Trends issue for March 2017 retaining the Russian GDP growth projections for 2017-2018 at 1.2% and 1.4%, correspondingly.[589]

On February 8, 2017 Deka released new issue of Emerging Market Trends bulletin[590] with the Russian GDP growth projections for 2017-2018 updated to 1.2% and 1.4%, correspondingly.

On January 17, 2017 Deka provided January / February 2017 economic forecast.[591] According to the forecast, the Russian GDP is estimated to contract by 0.6% in 2016 and projected to grow by 1.0% in 2017 and 1.4% in 2018.

On December 8, 2016 Deka released December 2016 / January 2017 economic forecast (Volkswirtschaft Prognosen) featuring the updated Russian GDP growth projections for 2016-2018 that were indicated at -0.6%, 0.8% and 1.2%, correspondingly.[592]

On November 10, 2016 Deka group published the November / December economic forecast (Volkswirtschaft Prognosen)[593] with the Russian GDP growth projections for 2016 and 2017 staying unchanged at -0.8% and +1.1%, correspondingly.

On October 13, 2016 October 2016 issue of Emerging Market Trends was released by Deka with the Russian GDP growth projections for 2016-2017 staying unchanged at -0.8% and +1.1%, correspondingly.[594]

On September 14, 2016 Deka released Emerging Market Trends for September 2016 with the Russian GDP growth projections for 2016-2017 remaining unchanged at -0.8% and +1.1%, correspondingly.[595]

On August 10, 2016 Deka Group published new issue of Emerging Markets Trends for August 2016[596] with the Russian GDP growth projections for 2016-2017 remaining unchanged at -0.8% and +1.1%, correspondingly.

On July 14, 2016 Emerging Market Trends bulletin for July 2016 was released.[597] The Russian GDP growth projections for 2016-2017 remained unchanged at -0.8% and +1.1%, correspondingly.

On June 16, 2016 Deka Group released new issue of the Emerging Market Trends for June 2016.[598] The Russian GDP development projections for 2016-2017 were revised to 0.8% contraction in 2016 and 1.1% growth in 2017.

On April 12, 2016 Deka Group published the April issue of Emerging Markets Trends with the Russian GDP contraction projection for 2016 softened to 1.6% and the GDP growth projection for 2017 remaining at 1.4%.[599]

On March 15, 2016 Deka Group released its March issue of Emerging Markets Trends research, where the group provided the Russian GDP growth projections for 2016-2017 at -2.0% and +1.4%, correspondingly.[600]



DNB



On April 20, 2017 DNB published Economic Outlook with the Russian GDP growth projections indicated at 1.4% for 2017 and 1.5% for 2018-2020.[601]

On February 19, 2016 DNB released its Economic Outlook for January 2016 that features the Russian GDP projections for 2016-2019.[602] Referring to the outlook, the Russian GDP is expected to contract by 1.5% in 2016 with further growth at 2.5% in 2017 and 1.5% in 2018-2019.



Credit Suisse



On June 6, 2016 Credit Suisse provided the revised Russian GDP contraction projection for 2016 at 0.3% (previous projection: 1.5% contraction) and GDP growth projection for 2017 at 1.7% (previous projection: 1.0%).[603] The analysts of the bank expect the average annual Brent crude oil price to be at the level of USD 45 per barrel in 2016 and USD 53 per barrel in 2017 (previous projections: USD 36 and 43 per barrel, correspondingly).



Wells Fargo



On May 17, 2017 Wells Fargo released comments on the Russian economy developments (Russian Economy Continues to Gain Momentum in Q1 2017).[604] The bank expects the Russian GDP to grow by 1.3% in 2017 and 2.0% in 2018.

On April 4, 2017 Wells Fargo provided comments on the Russian economy developments with the GDP growth projections for 2017-2018 indicated at 1.4% and 2.1%, correspondingly.[605]

On December 9, 2016 Wells Fargo released Global Chartbook December 2016 with the Russian GDP growth projections for 2016-2018 indicated at -0.3%, +1.5% and +2.1%, correspondingly.[606]

On November 15, 2016 Wells Fargo issued the report called “Russian Q3 GDP: Continuing the Climb from Deep Recession” with indicated GDP quarterly growth projection for 2017 in the range of 1%-2%.[607]

On September 9, 2016 Wells Fargo released Global Chartbook September 2016 featuring updated Russian GDP growth projections for 2016-2018 at 0.0%, 1.8% and 2.1%, correspondingly.[608]

On August 11, 2016 Wells Fargo published review of the Russian economy developments with GDP growth projection for 2017 retained at 1.7%.[609]

On June 9, 2016 Wells Fargo released the Global Chartbook June 2016, where the Russian GDP growth projections for 2016-2017 were indicated at 0.3% and 1.9%, correspondingly.[610]



Rabobank



On March 9, 2017 Rabobank published the economic quarterly report called “World order turned upside down: what is the impact on growth?” featuring the Russian GDP growth projections for 2017-2018 at 1.0% and 1.2%, correspondingly.[611]

On December 2, 2016 Rabobank released the study called “Outlook 2017: The global economy in the Trump era” indicating the Russian GDP growth projections for 2016-2017 at -0.7% and +0.9%, correspondingly.[612]

On September 8, 2016 Rabobank released its Global Economic Outlook featuring the Russian GDP growth projections for 2016-2017 at -1.5% and +0.5%, correspondingly.[613] The bank expects the average annual UK Brent crude oil price to be at USD 42 per barrel in 2016 and USD 55 per barrel in 2017.



Coface



On March 21, 2017 Coface released Country and Sector Risk Barometer Q1 2017 featuring the Russian GDP growth projection for 2017 at +1.0%.[614]

On January 24, 2017 Coface published Panorama study (“An Economic Upturn in the Face of Uncertainty”) with the Russian GDP growth estimated at -0.7% for 2016 and projected at +0.8% for 2017.[615]

On October 14, 2016 Coface released the Country Risk Barometer for 3Q 2016.[616] Referring to the report, the Russian GDP is expected to contract by 1.0% in 2016 with further 0.8% growth in 2017.

On October 3, 2016 Coface updated the Russian GDP growth projection for 2016 to -1.0%.[617]



Sberbank



On June 19, 2017 analysts of Sberbank Investment Research indicated the Russian GDP projection for 2017 at 1.1%.[618]

On May 30, 2017 Mr. German Gref, the head of Sberbank, in his interview to Russia 24 TV channel commented that he does not support the official GDP growth projection for 2017 at 2.0% provided by the Russian Ministry of Economic Development.[619] He stated that Sberbank expects the Russian economy to grow by 1.5% this year.

On May 24, 2017 Ms. Julia Tseplyaeva, the head of the Centre of Macroeconomic Research of Sberbank, commented to Kommersant newspaper that the banks expects 1.2% GDP growth in 2017.[620]

On March 20, 2017 Sberbank confirmed previously indicated projections for 2017-2019 in its presentation for investors for March 2017.[621]

On December 14, 2016 Sberbank released 2017 Guidance presentation featuring the Russian GDP growth projections for 2017-2019 under 3 scenarios.[622] The bank also indicated the GDP contraction projection for 2016 at 0.5%.

As it comes to the long-term prospects, the bank expects that without structural reforms the Russian GDP growth will average 1.5% per annum, thus, doubling in 50 years. In case the reforms are implemented and technological breakthrough is achieved, the growth will average 3.5% per annum (about 20 years to double).

On November 21, 2016 analysts of Sberbank Investment Research confirmed the Russian GDP contraction projection of the bank for 2016 at 0.5%.[623]

On October 24, 2016 Sberbank released Investor Presentation for October 2016[624], where the Russian GDP contraction projection for the year was indicated at 0.5% under the average annual Urals crude oil price at USD 41 per barrel.

On September 20, 2016 analysts of Sberbank Investment Research commented to 1Prime news agency that they expect the Russian GDP contraction in 2016 to be close to 0.5%.[625]

On September 12, 2016 analysts of Sberbank Investment Research commented to 1Prime agency that they expect 0.3% Russian GDP contraction in 2016.[626]

On August 2, 2016 Sberbank Investment Research provided its analytical review on the Russian economy developments to 1Prime information agency.[627] Referring to the cited materials, Sberbank’s experts project the Russian GDP to reach the flat level (0%) in 2016. They expect that growth in net exports and inventories will help to compensate negative influence of deteriorating consumption in 2H 2016.

On May 25, 2016 Sberbank released a presentation for investors dedicated to results of IFRS results for 1Q 2016.[628] The presentation features section with macroeconomic projections for 2016 with improved average Urals crude oil price forecast at USD 40 per barrel (USD 35 per barrel previously) and, correspondingly, improved GDP growth forecast at -0.7% (-2.2% previously).

On March 22, 2016 Sberbank released its monthly Investor Presentation for March 2016, where it provided GDP contraction projection for 2016 at 2.2% under the average annual Urals crude oil price at USD 35 per barrel.[629]

On March 14, 2016 Mr. German Gref, the President of Sberbank, commented that the bank expects the Russian GDP to decrease by 1.5-2.0% in 2016 with further slight growth at 0.5-1.0% in 2017 in case the average annual crude oil price reaches USD 45 per barrel.[630]

On January 21, 2016 RBC cited updated macroeconomic forecast of Sberbank for 2016.[631] Referring to base scenario of the forecast, the GDP contraction by 2.2% is projected for 2016 under annual average Urals crude oil price at USD 35 per barrel and average annual RUR/USD rate at 77.4.[632]

On November 23, 2015 Kommersant newspaper cited the contents of presentation of Mr. German Gref, the head of Sberbank, at the meeting of Opora Rossii (Foothold of Russia), which is a Russian public organisation for SME support.[633] Referring to the materials, base scenario of Sberbank assumes the following GDP projections until 2020:


Sberbank: Projected GDP growth until 2020 (Base Scenario)


Source: Kommersant.

On October 22, 2015 Sberbank provided updated GDP forecast for 2015 and 2018 in the presentation prepared for Sberbank’s Investor Day in London.[634] Referring to new projections, the GDP is estimated to contract by 3.6% in 2015, while the moderate growth at 1.3% is forecasted for 2018 under base case scenario. The average Urals crude oil price is expected at USD 52 per barrel in 2015 and USD 62 per barrel over the whole period of 2015-2018.

On July 20, 2015 Sberbank published macroeconomic research on influence of external factors on the Russian economy.

The mentioned effects include:

Sberbank’s forecast assume 3.0% GDP contraction for 2015 at average Urals oil price at USD 56 per barrel, further 2016 recession (0.5% GDP contraction, oil price at USD 60 per barrel), slight GDP recovery trend in 2017 and 2018 (2.0% and 1.5% GDP growth with oil price at USD 65 and 70 per barrel, correspondingly).[635]



Sberbank CIB



On February 19, 2016 analysts of Sberbank CIB, corporate and investment banking division of Sberbank, commented that in case the average annual crude oil price stays at around USD 30 per barrel in 2016 they would expect GDP contraction at the level of 1%.[636]



VneshEconomBank (VEB)



On May 3, 2017 VEB released Forecast of the Russian Economic Development for 2017-2020 featuring baseline scenario and scenario with low crude oil price.[637]

On February 27, 2017 Mr. Andrey Klepach, the Deputy Head of VEB, in the course of the Russian Investment Forum in the city of Sochi announced his macroeconomic projections to the mass media.[638] Mr. Klepach expects the Russian GDP to grow by 1.2% in 2017 with the potential to demonstrate growth rates at 3% in 2018-2019.

On November 9, 2016 Mr. Andrey Klepash, the Deputy Head of VEB, announced that the bank expects the Russian GDP to grow by 0.6-0.7% in 2017.[639]

On August 15, 2016 VEB released updated mid-term forecast of the Russian economy developments[640] and macroeconomic forecast for 2016-2020[641]. The documents provide 3 scenarios of the Russian economy developments:


VEB: GDP Dynamics in 2016-2020 under Baseline Scenario


Source: VneshEconomBank (VEB).

On April 19, 2016 Mr. Andrei Klepach, the Chief Economist of VEB, commented that the bank projects GDP contraction for 2016 in the range of 1.3-1.9%, while GDP contraction for 1Q 2016 is estimated at 2.0%.[642]

On April 14, 2016 VEB presented the new macroeconomic forecast for 2016-2018.[643] The forecast offers several scenarios of the Russian economy development.

On March 9, 2016 VEB released its revised macroeconomic forecast for 2016-2018 featuring 3 scenarios of the economic development[644]:

On February 25, 2016 Mr. Andrei Klepach, the Chief Economist of VEB, revised GDP projection for 2016 assuming contraction at around 2% under the average annual crude oil price at USD 35 per barrel.[645]

On December 28, 2015 VEB released its corrected macroeconomic forecast for 2016.[646] The bank presented 3 scenarios of economic developments depending on Urals crude oil price dynamics:

On December 24, 2015 VneshEconomBank confirmed its Russian GDP projection for 2015[647] at 3.9% after preliminary data for GDP developments in November 2015 had been released by RosStat.

On November 3, 2015 VEB released its forecast of the Russian economic development for 2015-2018 with 3 scenarios.[648] All scenarios assume GDP contraction in 2015 at 3.9% with average Urals crude oil price at USD 53 per barrel.



VTB



On March 1, 2017 Mr. Herbert Moos, Deputy President and Chairman of VTB Bank, commented to the press that the bank expects the Russian GDP growth in 2017 at 1.5% under the average annual Urals crude oil price at USD 54 per barrel.[649]

On June 16, 2016 in the course of St. Petersburg International Economic Forum Mr. Andrei Kostin, the head of VTB bank, announced the bank’s projections of the Russian GDP growth for 2016-2017 at 0.0% and +1.7%, correspondingly.[650]



VTB 24



On September 20, 2016 Mr. Mikhail Zadornov, the Head of VTB 24, in his interview to Russia 24 TV channel commented that he expects the Russian GDP to grow by 1.5-2.0% in 2017.[651]

On February 11, 2016 Mr. Mikhail Zadornov, the Head of VTB 24, commented in the interview to Russia 24 TV channel that the updated business plan of the bank assumes GDP contraction in 2016 not exceeding 1% even in case average annual crude oil price staying at USD 35-40 per barrel.[652]



Alfa Bank



On January 26, 2017 Ms. Natalia Orlova, the Chief Economist of Alfa Bank confirmed the bank’s GDP growth projection for 2017 at +1.5%, but commented that the bank may revisit it due to poor performance of the economy (consumption, etc.) in the end of 2016.[653]

On September 20, 2016 Ms. Natalia Orlova, Chief Economist of Alfa Bank, commented to 1Prime news agency that the bank’s GDP contraction projection for 2016 was revised to 0.8% (0.3% contraction was projected previously).[654]

On June 1, 2016 Alfa Bank confirmed its previous projections on the Russian GDP developments in 2016-2017 expecting 0.3% contraction in 2016 and further 2.5% growth in 2017.[655]

On April 28, 2016 Alfa Bank substantially improved its Russian GDP projections due to above-expected macro indicators of the country in 1Q 2016.[656] The bank now forecasts 0.3% contraction in 2016 under the average annual crude oil price at USD 40 per barrel and further 2.5% growth in 2017.

On January 26, 2016 Bloomberg released GDP forecast of Alfa Bank for 2016 (provided on Jan 25).[657] Referring to forecast, Russian GDP is expected to contract by 1.5% in 2016 following slump of prices in the oil market, while the previous forecast assumed slight growth at 0.3%.

On August 3, 2015 Alfa Bank released macroeconomic review called “Economic Growth in Russia: No Easy Solutions” in which GDP growth forecast for 2016 was cut to 0.3% (1.5% growth was expected referring to previous review).[658]



UralSib Group



On May 17, 2017 Mr. Alexey Devyatov, the Chief Economist of UralSib, confirmed the Russian GDP growth projection for 2017 at 1.9% under the average annual crude oil price at USD 50 per barrel (comments to 1Prime news agency).[659]

On April 19, 2017 Mr. Alexey Devyatov, the Chief Economist of UralSib, indicated the group’s Russian GDP growth projection at 1.9% for 2017 with a negative outlook (comments to 1Prime news agency).[660]

On July 29, 2016 Ms. Olga Sterina, an analyst of Uralsib, commented to Prime news agency that Uralsib’s Russian GDP contraction projection for 2016 was revised to 0.3%.[661]

On January 26, 2016 Prime News Agency cited Ms. Olga Sterina, analyst of UralSib Capital, who provided Russian GDP growth projection for 2016 at -0.6% under the base scenario assuming average annual crude oil price at USD 44.5 per barrel.[662]

Under the pessimistic scenario in case the average annual crude oil price stays as low as USD 33 per barrel in 2016, the Russian GDP slump for the year can hit 2%.



GaspromBank



On April 21, 2016 Ms. Gulnara Haidarshina, Deputy Head of Department on Market Conditions Analysis of GaspormBank, commented that the bank has revised the baseline macroeconomic projections for 2016 due to new assumptions on oil prices dynamics and conservative monetary policy of the state.[663] According to revised projections, the average annual Brent crude oil price is expected to hit USD 39.9 per barrel in 2016 (previous forecast: USD 38.3 per barrel), while the Russian GDP is expected to contract by 1.7%.



RosBank



On December 11, 2015 analysts of RosBank announced their projections of Russian GDP dynamics for 2015 and 2016 at -3.8% and 0.0%, correspondingly.[664]



Renaissance Capital



On December 19, 2016 Mr. Oleg Kuzmin, the Chief Economist of RenCap on Russia and CIS, provided the Russian GDP growth projection for 2017 at +1.6% in the course of the interview to Vesti TV channel.[665]

On January 26, 2016 Bloomberg released Russian GDP forecast of Renaissance Capital for 2016 among GDP projections of other players (provided to Bloomberg on Jan 22).[666] Referring to forecast, Russian GDP is expected to contract by 0.6% in 2016. The previous projections assumed 0.8% growth.



BCS Financial Group



On April 14, 2017 Mr. Vladimir Tikhomirov, the Chief Economist of BCS, provided the comments on the GDP developments to 1Prime information agency.[667] He expects the Russian GDP to grow by 1.2% in 2017 and 1.8% in 2018 under the average annual crude oil price at USD 56 and USD 63 per barrel, correspondingly.

On May 24, 2016 Mr. Vladimir Tikhomirov, the Chief Economist of BCS, commented in his article for 1Prime information agency that he expects 0.3% GDP contraction for 2016.[668]



Opinions of Individuals



On December 23, 2016 Mr. Vladimir Putin at the annual news conference provided the updated GDP contraction projection for 2016 in the range of 0.5-0.6%.[669]

On November 25, 2016 Mr. Igor Shuvalov, the Russian Vice Prime Minister, provided his Russian GDP contraction projection for 2016 in the range of 0.6-0.7% projecting also further 1.0% growth in 2017.[670]

On November 22, 2016 Mr. Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia, provided his GDP contraction projection for 2016 at 0.3%.[671]

On April 26, 2016 Mr. Alexey Kudrin, the ex-Minister of Finance and recently appointed head of the Centre for Strategic Research, projected GDP contraction in Russia at the level of 1.0% in 2016 under the average annual crude oil price at USD 43 per barrel.[672]

On March 21, 2016 Mr. Alexey Kudrin, the ex-Minister of Finance, projected the Russian GDP to contact by 1.5-2.0% in 2016 under the average annual crude oil price at USD 35-40 per barrel.[673] He also expects slight GDP growth in 2017 at the rate of 0.0-1.0%.

On January 20, 2016 Mr. Alexey Kudrin, the ex-Minister of Finance, commented at Davos forum that in case the average annual crude oil price amounts to USD 30 per barrel in 2016, he expects that GDP contraction may reach 2%, while the Russian budget deficit will increase to 6% or more (3% under the state budgetary projections approved in the end of 2015).[674]

On October 2, 2015 Mr. Alexey Kudrin, the Russian ex-Minister of Finance, announced his GDP projections for 2015-2016 to the public.[675] Mr. Kudrin expects GDP to fall by 4% in 2015 with further slight growth or contraction in 2016 in the range from -1% to +0.5%. He mentioned that the dynamics in 2016 is more likely to be negative.

On September 2, 2015 Mr. Alexey Kudrin, the Russian ex-Minister of Finance, announced that the Russian economy is doomed for weak growth after 2016 with growth rates at 0.5-1.5% pa. In his opinion, by 2020 the share of Russia in the world GDP will diminish to 2.6%. Referring to Mr. Kudrin, the improvement can be achieved by means of implementation of massive structural reforms to the benefit of the market economy (including restructuring of the state spending) that could lower dependency on oil and secure sustainable growth.[676]

On August 17, 2015 Mr. Andrey Belousov, the President’s aide, forecasted Russian GDP contraction at 3.5-4% for 2015.[677] He also mentioned that economic growth in Russia is not likely to exceed 1-2% pa in the following years in case structural reforms are not implemented in the Russian economy. In his opinion, in order to overcome issues related to the budget and currency rates, Russia needs economic growth to be not lower than 4% pa.[678]



Projections for 2016 (Archive)



Projections Made in 2016

Wide-range fluctuations of the crude’s price throughout 2016 resulted in substantial divergence of the Russian GDP projections with more optimistic forecasts dominating closer to the year end.

In the beginning of 2016 the crude oil prices showed heavily negative dynamics, and the experts started to revise their Russian GDP projections for the year in many cases assuming decrease of the average annual crude oil price to USD 35 per barrel or even less. In January 2016 under pressure of rapidly falling oil prices even the Russian state authorities had to correct their forecasts of GDP developments for 2016 to the negative ones with official baseline projection of the Ministry of Economic Development changed from +0.7% to -0.8% at expected average annual Urals crude oil price of USD 40 per barrel.[679] Mr. Alexei Kudrin, the ex-Minister of Finance, on January 20, 2016 commented at Davos forum that in case the average annual crude oil price amounts to USD 30 per barrel in 2016, he expects that GDP contraction may reach 2%, while the Russian budget deficit will increase to 6% of GDP or even more (3% under the state budgetary projections approved in the end of 2015).[680]

In April-May 2016 experts started to revise the Russian economy prospects for the year due to strong positive correction in the crude oil price. Specifically, IMF corrected the Russian GDP contraction projection for 2016 from 1.8% in April 2016 to 1.5% in May 2016.[681]

In June 2016 the average monthly Urals crude oil price reached USD 47.34 per barrel[682], and the optimism of analysts on the Russian economy developments in 2016 continued to grow. The median of available GDP contraction projections for the year decreased to -1.0%, IMF revised its projection to -1.2%[683], while the Ministry of Economic Development even predicted the growth at 0.2-0.3%.

In August-September 2016 after relative stabilisation of the crude oil price, release of information on GDP contraction in 2Q 2016 (-0.6%) and following the statistics on current development of consumption and other macro indicators, the consensus forecast for 2016 shifted to 0.8% contraction. At the same time, the Ministry of Economic also worsened its forecast to 0.5-0.6% contraction still hoping to see some growth in 4Q 2016.[684]

In October 2016 the projections remained mostly the same. The Ministry of Economic Development retained hopes to see positive GDP developments in the last months of 2016[685], but the Ministry’s estimates of GDP dynamics for September 2016 released in the end of the month (-0.7%)[686] raised doubts on the probability of such scenario.

By the year end the majority of experts expected the Russian GDP to contract by 0.6-0.8% in 2016 with the projections’ spread limited by 1.0% at the lower bound.

Projections Made in 2015

Throughout 2015 the year 2016 was projected as a year of continuing recession or flat / slightly positive developments (i.e. stagnation) primarily depending on oil price dynamics. The GDP growth forecasts mostly varied from -1.5% to +0.5%.

The state demonstrated quite optimistic view on the Russian economy prospects. Before August 2015 the official forecast by the Russian Ministry of Economic Development for 2016 was at +2.3%, but on August 25, 2015 it was revised to the range of +1% ÷ +2%.[687] In October 2015 in the course of elaboration of the budget for the next year the Russian state authorities had to provide more realistic projection with expected 0.7% GDP growth for 2016. At the same time, the experts estimated Russian GDP developments primarily in the range from -1.5% to +0.5% in 2016 with negative projections dominating closer to the end of 2015.

Weekly Changes in the Russian GDP Growth Projections for 2016 Traced by Factosphere

DateMedian,
% to previous year
Min,
% to previous year
Max,
% to previous year
Number of assessed projections (current and previous month)
26.12.2016-0.6-1.6-0.338
19.12.2016-0.6-1.6-0.335
12.12.2016-0.625-1.4-0.326
05.12.2016-0.6-1.4-0.325
28.11.2016-0.6-1.40.034
21.11.2016-0.7-1.00.025
14.11.2016-0.7-1.00.025
07.11.2016-0.65-1.00.022
31.10.2016-0.8-1.50.039
24.10.2016-0.8-1.50.038
17.10.2016-0.8-1.50.035
10.10.2016-0.8-1.50.032
03.10.2016-0.8-1.50.032
26.09.2016-0.8-1.50.028
19.09.2016-0.8-1.50.026
12.09.2016-0.8-1.50.021
05.09.2016-0.8-1.6+0.319
29.08.2016-0.8-1.5+0.323

Source: Calculations by Factosphere.



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