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GDP of Russia

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Last updated: October 5, 2017


Russian GDP Dynamics Overview (1999-2016)

Data on GDP Dynamics in 2017

Data on GDP Dynamics in 2016

Data on GDP Dynamics in 2015

Data on GDP Dynamics in 2005-2014

Data on GDP Dynamics in 1995-2004


Important note: if not stated otherwise, the annual GDP growth/contraction percent figures represent the dynamics of real GDP with the base year 2011. The real annual data is derived by applying growth rates from 2011 chained GDP to nominal volumes of 2008.

Important note: The quarterly GDP growth/contraction figures rely upon GDP physical volume indices calculated against appropriate quarters of previous years. GDP % growth = GDP physical volume index for appropriate period – 100. Real quarterly data is based on 2008 chained rubles.



Russian GDP Dynamics Overview (1999-2016)



Due to outstanding importance of oil and gas sector for the national economy (O&G sector stood for about 2/3 of Russian export revenues and more than 50% of revenue of the federal budget in 2014[24]), the Russian GDP developments are commonly considered to depend upon dynamics of Brent / Urals crude oil price.

After a decade of sound GDP growth that started in 1999 and was mostly driven by substantial increase in oil prices (GDP CAGR at 6.94% in 1999-2008[25] accompanied by growth in Brent crude oil prices from USD 17.81 to USD 97.64 per barrel[26]), the Russian economy was hardly hit by 2009 crisis with concurrent drop in oil prices to USD 61.86 per barrel[27] that resulted in 7.8% GDP contraction[28].


GDP: Dynamics of Russian GDP in 1999-2009, % growth year over year


Source: International Monetary Fund.

In several following years there took place strong positive correction of oil prices, and the real GDP outperformed pre-crisis values already in 2011 and continued growing in 2012. The year 2013 showed substantial structural problems in the Russian economy, as GDP grew by moderate 1.3%[29] despite stably high oil prices exceeding USD 100 per barrel[30]. Experts explained that outstanding situation by substantial decrease in investment volumes, especially from the side of large state-owned companies of the energy sector.[31]

The beginning of 2014 showed no positive shift with registered year-to-year GDP growth at 0.6% and 0.7% in 1st and 2nd quarters, correspondingly.[32]

Slumping oil prices coupled with ongoing conflict in Ukraine and related international sanctions have been the major drivers of the downturn trend in the Russian GDP that took place in the second half of 2014. While the result of 3rd quarter 2014 showed minor improvement (+0.9% GDP growth on annual basis), in the 4th quarter the economy rapidly started approaching recession (+0.4% GDP growth)[33] that made up cumulative GDP growth for 2014 at around 0.6%[34]

Important note: On December 31, 2015 the Russian State Statistics Service released new data on GDP dynamics in 2011-2014 that had been revised in accordance with combination of SNA 1993 / 2008 (2011-2013) and SNA 2008 (2014). As a result, the GDP growth rate for 2014 was revised from 0.6% to 0.7%. Previous data (until the year 2011) are calculated under SNA 1993.

Important note #2: on December 30, 2016 the Russian State Statistics Service revised the GDP estimate for 2015 in a major way. Specifically, In the course of the third planned GDP assessment the Russian GDP contraction rate was corrected from 3.7% to 3.0%.[35] In accordance with available information, the estimate for 3Q 2015 have been revisited due to amended results of activities of the state management and the military sector (0.8% contraction was changed to 3.4% growth). Referring to mass media, the mentioned growth is most likely related to contribution of the military sector due to commencing military conflict in Syria and participation in the conflict in Ukraine.[36] Besides this, the methodology on military spending assessment in GDP calculation has been reportedly revised.[37] The delay on proper presentation of 2015 results is most likely connected to substantial lag in provision of statistical information by the enterprises of the military sector.

On July 21, 2017 the dynamics of the Russian GDP and its components for 2011-2013 came through further revision to comply with SNA 2008 taking into account R&D and weapons systems.[38] Specifically, the GDP growth for 2012 was revised from 3.5% to 3.7%, and 2013 figure was corrected from 1.3% to 1.8%.


Dynamics of the Russian GDP in 2012-2016 (revised in July 2017)


Source: Russian Federal State Statistics Service (latest revision made on July 21, 2017).


Quarterly Dynamics of GDP Physical Volume Indices in Russia in 2014-2017, %


Source: Russian Federal State Statistics Service.

GDP Developments in 2015

Among the effects of sanctions and low oil prices that proceeded to 2015 had been enormous investment outflow, limited access to outside financing for the Russian companies and weakening national currency. As a result, the recession was registered in the 1st quarter of 2015 with estimated 2.8% GDP contraction (corresponds to GDP physical volume index of 97.2%).

The negative impact of external factors on the Russian GDP strengthened in 2Q 2015, when the registered GDP contraction reached its bottom at 4.5%. After further substantial negative correction of oil prices in July-August 2015, the national economy prospects for the year appeared really bleak.

However, the GDP dynamics for 3Q 2015 slightly exceeded expectations of analysts (-3.7% vs. commonly expected -4.4%) and created ground for cautious optimism. Specifically, Mr. Alexey Ulyukaev, the Russian Minister of Economic Development, commented in the beginning of December 2015[39] that GDP contraction for 2015 will be at 3.7% with high level of probability, and that projection finally proved to be correct.

The results for 3Q 2015 have been re-assessed in the end of 2016 assuming the better performance (3.7% contraction was revised to 3.0% contraction, see also comments above).


Quarterly Dynamics of GDP Physical Volume Indices in Russia in 2015, %


Source: Russian Federal State Statistics Service.

GDP Developments in 2016

The beginning of 2016 showed no relief for the Russian economy with the crude oil price falling below USD 30 per barrel in the mid-January 2016, while the GDP contraction for the month was estimated at -2.7%. However, starting from February there came gradual restoration with the crude’s price stabilising near USD 40 per barrel closer to the mid-2016.

After the recovery of the oil prices, the year 2016 has been considered by many as a turning point to positive growth rates for the Russian economy. There have been reasons for that, as far as starting from April 2016 the rates of the Russian GDP contraction have not exceeded 1%, while the available estimates for August 2016 even showed minimal GDP growth (+0.2%). However, the following months demonstrated that Russia is still in the state of recession (0.7% contraction in September and October). In November 2016 the growth renewed, and the positive dynamics have been registered for 4Q 2016 (+0.3%).

We shall note that throughout the year the Russian government demonstrated commitment to budgetary gap coverage and suppressing of the inflation. Specifically, that was reflected by quite conservative monetary policy and efforts on cutting the state expenditures and increasing the state revenues. The other side of the coin has been poor performance of the key GDP components, such as private consumption and the government spending.


Quarterly Dynamics of GDP Physical Volume Indices in Russia in 2016, %


Source: Russian Federal State Statistics Service.



Data on GDP Dynamics in 2017



Data on GDP dynamics starting from 1Q 2017 are calculated relying on new classification of economic activities (OKVED2) and using the year 2016 as a base year (2011 was used as a base year before that).


Quarterly Dynamics of GDP Physical Volume Indices in Russia in 2016-2017


Source: Russian Federal State Statistics Service.


Quarterly GDP Indices by VneshEconomBank (VEB) for 2015-2017, to Appropriate Period of Previous Year


Source: VneshEconomBank (VEB).


Quarterly GDP Indices for 2015-2017 by VneshEconomBank (VEB), Quarter-Over-Quarter, Seasonally Adjusted



Monthly GDP Indices by VneshEconomBank (VEB) for 2016-2017, to Appropriate Period of Previous Year



Monthly GDP Indices for 2016-2017 by VneshEconomBank (VEB), Month-Over Month, Seasonally Adjusted


Source: VneshEconomBank (VEB).

August 2017:

On September 26, 2017, the Russian Ministry of Economic Development released Picture of the Economy bulletin featuring the Russian GDP growth estimate for August 2017 at 2.3% as compared to August 2016.[40]

On September 22, 2017, VEB released the GDP indices for August 2017.[41] The Russian GDP growth was estimated at 2.2% as compared to August 2016 and 0.4% as compared to July 2017 (seasonally and calendar adjusted).

July 2017:

On September 26, 2017, the Russian Ministry of Economic Development released Picture of the Economy bulletin featuring the Russian GDP growth estimate for July 2017 revised to 1.8% as compared to July 2016.[42]

On August 28, 2017, the Russian Ministry of Economic Development released Picture of the Economy bulletin, where it estimated the Russian GDP growth for July 2017 at 1.5%.[43]

On August 23, 2017, VneshEconomBank released GDP indices for July 2017 indicating 2.0% GDP growth as compared to July 2016 and 0.6% contraction as compared to June 2017 (seasonally and calendar adjusted).[44]

June 2017, 2Q 2017 and 1H 2017:

On September 11, 2017, the Russian State Statistics Service released the first estimate of GDP growth for 2Q 2017 confirming the preliminary estimate at 2.5% (RUR 21 691.1 billion in current prices) and indicating half-year growth at 1.5% (RUR 41 782.1 billion in current prices).[45]

On August 17, 2017 the Russian State Statistics Service published information on social and economic developments of Russia in January-July 2017 with the Russian GDP growth estimate for 1H 2017 indicated at 1.5%.[46]

On August 11, 2017, the Russian State Statistics Service released the preliminary estimate of the Russian GDP growth in 2Q 2017 at 2.5% as compared to appropriate period of the previous year.[47]

On July 27, 2017 VEB provided the estimate of the Russian GDP growth for June 2017 indicating 2.6% as compared to June 2016 and seasonally adjusted flat growth (0.0%) against May 2017.[48] The GDP growth for 2Q 2017 was estimated at 2.4% against 2Q 2016 (1.1% seasonally adjusted growth against 1Q 2017).

On July 26, 2017, Mr. Maxim Oreshkin, the Minister of Economic Development, estimated the Russian GDP growth in 2Q 2017 at 2.7%.[49] The estimate was confirmed on July 28, 2017 in the Picture of the Economy bulletin with the June’s GDP growth estimate indicated at 2.9% as compared to June 2016.[50] The overall growth for 1H 2017 was estimated at 1.7%.

May 2017:

On July 27, 2017 the Ministry of Economic Development indicated the GDP estimate for May 2017 at 3.5% against May 2016.[51]

On June 23, 2017 VEB provided the GDP indices for May 2017 indicated at 2.9% as compared to May 2016 and 0.5% as compared to April 2017 (seasonally adjusted).[52]

April 2017:

On May 31, 2017 the Ministry of Economic Development estimated the Russian GDP growth for April 2017 at 1.4% as compared to April 2016 (0.2% as compared to March 2017, seasonally adjusted).[53]

On May 25, 2017 VEB released its GDP indices for April 2017 revising also data for January-March 2017. The Russian GDP is estimated to grow by 1.5% in April 2017 against appropriate period of the previous year and by 0.4% against March 2017 (seasonally adjusted).[54]

March 2017, 1Q 2017:

On June 16, 2017 the Russian State Statistics Service released the first estimate of the Russian GDP growth for 1Q 2017 confirming the preliminary estimate indicated at +0.5%.[55]

On May 17, 2017 the Russian State Statistics Service released the preliminary estimate of the Russian GDP developments (GDP physical volume index) for 1Q 2017 at 100.5% as compared to appropriate period of previous year.[56]

On April 24, 2017 VneshEconomBank released the updated GDP indices for 2015-2017 featuring the GDP growth projections for March 2017 and 1Q 2017.[57] The Russian GDP is estimated to contract by 0.3% in 1Q 2017 as compared to 1Q 2016, while 0.3% growth is estimated if compared against 4Q 2016. The GDP in March 2017 is estimated to be flat against March 2016 (0.0% growth) and to grow by 0.2% against February 2017.

On April 21, 2017 Mr. Maxim Oreshkin, the Russian Minister of Economic Development, announced the Ministry’s estimate of the Russian GDP growth rates for 1Q 2017 at +0.4% as compared to previous quarter (seasonally adjusted).[58]

February 2017:

On March 31, 2017 VneshEconomBank provided GDP indices for February 2017.[59] The monthly Russian GDP growth was estimated at -1.5% as compared to February 2016 and -0.1% as compared to January 2017 (seasonally adjusted). The monthly GDP growth for January 2017 (seasonally adjusted) was corrected from 0.3% to 0.2%.

January 2017:

On March 3, 2017 VneshEconomBank released GDP indices for January 2017.[60] Referring to the document, the monthly Russian GDP growth was estimated at 0.8% as compared to January 2016 and 0.3% as compared to December 2016 (seasonally adjusted). The quarterly indices for 2015-2016 have been revised.



Data on GDP Dynamics in 2016



The Russian State Statistics Service offers the monthly data on the Russian GDP dynamics with substantial lag and on quarterly/annual basis, while the Ministry of Economic Development and VneshEconomBank (VEB) provide their own up-to-date monthly estimates.

On March 31, 2017 the Russian State Statistics Service provided the second estimate of GDP developments in 2016 with no change as compared to the first estimate (0.2% contraction).[61] The estimate for 4Q 2016 was also released (0.3% growth).

On February 1, 2017 the Russian State Statistics Service released the first estimate of GDP contraction for 2016 at 0.2%.[62] Please, note that the GDP contraction for 2015 was simultaneously revised to 2.8% from 3.7% estimated throughout 2016 (an intermediate revision to 3.0% took place on December 30, 2016). The data rows below with estimates and forecasts provided by experts throughout 2016 are affected by that revision.


Monthly Russian GDP Dynamics in 2016


Source: Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation.

VneshEconomBank (VEB) offers own assessment of quarterly and monthly GDP dynamics using GDP indices calculated under the production approach. In order to aggregate the indices VEB uses average annual prices of the previous year as weights.


Monthly Russian GDP Dynamics in 2016 (VneshEconomBank)


Source: VneshEconomBank (VEB).


Seasonally Adjusted Monthly Russian GDP Dynamics in 2016 (VneshEconomBank)


Source: VneshEconomBank (VEB).


Russian GDP Dynamics in Current Prices in 2016


Source: VneshEconomBank (VEB).


Quarterly Dynamics of GDP Physical Volume Indices in Russia in 2015-2016, %


Source: Russian Federal State Statistics Service. Data for 2015 before revision made on December 30, 2016.


Quarterly Dynamics of GDP in Russia in 2015-2016 (VneshEconomBank)


Source: VneshEconomBank (VEB).


Quarterly Seasonally Adjusted GDP Dynamics in 2015-2016 (VneshEconomBank)


Source: VneshEconomBank (VEB).

2016 as a whole:

On March 3, 2017 VneshEconomBank released GDP indices for January 2017.[63] The quarterly indices for 2015-2016 have been revised.

On February 1, 2017 the Russian State Statistics Service provided the first estimate on the Russian GDP developments in 2016 at -0.2% revising further the GDP contraction for 2015 from 3.0% to 2.8%.[64]

On February 7, 2017 the Ministry of Economic Development released the report “On Results of Social and Economic Development of the Russian Federation in 2016”, where it provided its estimate of the Russian GDP contraction for 2016 at 0.2% in line with the estimate provided by the Russian State Statistics Service (0,6% contraction was estimated previously).[65]

December 2016:

On February 7, 2017 the Ministry of Economic Development released the report “On Results of Social and Economic Development of the Russian Federation in 2016”, where it provided its estimate of GDP growth in December 2016 at -0.6% and revised the growth estimate for November 2016 to 1.1%.[66]

On February 6, 2017 VneshEconomBank released the GDP indices for December 2016 with GDP contraction for the month estimated at 0.2% as compared to December 2015 and 0.4% as compared to November 2016 (seasonally adjusted).[67] The data rows for January-November 2016 have also been revised.

November 2016:

On December 27, 2016 VneshEconomBank published its GDP Index for November 2016.[68] The bank estimated the Russian GDP growth at 0.2% as compared to November 2015 and 0.4% as compared to previous month (seasonally adjusted). The overall GDP contraction for 11 months is estimated at 0.6%.

On December 26, 2016 the Ministry of Economic Development released the monthly monitoring report with the GDP growth estimate for November 2016 indicated at +0.5% as compared to November 2015 and +0.1% as compared to October 2016 (seasonally adjusted).[69] The overall GDP contraction for January-November 2016 is estimated at 0.6%.

October 2016:

On December 27, 2016 VneshEconomBank published its GDP Index for November 2016, where the GDP contraction for October 2016 was revised from 0.7% to 0.8%.[70]

On December 26, 2016 the Ministry of Economic Development released the monthly monitoring report with the GDP growth estimate for October 2016 revised to -0.7% as compared to October 2015 (-0.5% under previous estimate).[71]

On November 28, 2016 the Ministry of Economic Development released the monthly monitoring report for October 2016.[72] Referring to the report, the Russian GDP contraction in October is estimated at 0.5% as compared to October 2015 or 0.0% as compared to September 2016 (seasonally adjusted).The overall contraction for January-October 2016 is estimated at 0.7%.

On November 24. 2016 VneshEconomBank provided the estimate of the Russian GDP growth for October 2016 at -0.7% as compared to October 2015 and +0.1% as compared to September 2016 (seasonally adjusted).[73] The data on GDP for July-September 2016 have been updated by the bank in order to comply with statistics provided by the Russian State Statistics Service. The GDP growth estimate for 3Q 2016 was updated to -0.4%.

September 2016, 3Q 2016:

On December 30, 2016 the first GDP estimate for 3Q 2016 have been disclosed by the Russian State Statistics Service confirming 0.4% contraction indicated earlier.[74]

On December 13, 2016 the Russian State Statistics Service confirmed preliminary estimate of the Russian GDP contraction for 3Q 2016 at -0.4%.[75]

On November 14, 2016 the Russian State Statistics Service released the preliminary estimate of the Russian GDP dynamics in 3Q 2016 at -0.4% as compared to 3Q 2015 (GDP physical volume index at 99.6%).[76]

On October 31, 2016 the Ministry of Economic Development issued the monitoring report on the Russian economy for January-September 2016.[77] Referring to the report, the Russian GDP contraction in September 2016 was estimated at 0.7% as compared to September 2015 and 0.2% as compared to August 2016 (seasonally adjusted). The overall GDP contraction for January–September 2016 was indicated at 0.7%.

On October 25, 2016 VneshEconomBank (VEB) released assessment of GDP dynamics for September 2016 and for 3Q 2016.[78] According to the estimates, the Russian GDP in September 2016 contracted by 0.1% as compared to August 2016 (seasonally adjusted) and by 0.3% as compared to September 2015. In 3Q 2016 the GDP was estimated to grow by 0.1% as compared to 2Q 2016, while 0.5% contraction was registered as compared to 3Q 2015.

August 2016:

On October 3, 2016 the Ministry of Economic Development provided estimate of the Russian GDP growth in August 2016 at 0.0% as compared to August 2015.[79] The seasonally adjusted growth was estimated at +0.3% as compared to July 2016. The overall growth for January – August 2016 was estimated at -0.7% as compared to similar period of 2015. The July’s GDP estimate was corrected to -0.8% from -0.7% in previous report (to July 2015).

July 2016:

On August 26, 2016 the Ministry of Economic Development released its monthly monitoring report[80] with GDP contraction for July 2016 estimated at 0.7% as compared to July 2015 and 0.1% as compared to June 2016 (seasonally adjusted). The estimate of GDP contraction for June 2016 was corrected from 0.5% to 0.6%. The cumulative GDP contraction in January-July 2016 was estimated at 0.9%.

On August 26, 2016 VneshEconomBank provided its estimate of GDP dynamics in July 2016 at -0.6% as compared to July 2015 and +0.1% as compared to June 2016 (seasonally adjusted).[81]

June 2016, 2Q 2016:

On September 9, 2016 the Russian State Statistic Service confirmed its estimate of the Russian GDP contraction in 2Q 2016 at 0.6%.[82]

On August 17, 2016 the Russian State Statistics Service provided estimate of the Russian GDP contraction for 1H 2016 at 0.9%[83]

On August 11, 2016 the Russian State Statistics Service released first estimate of the Russian GDP contraction for 2Q 2016 at 0.6%.[84] This corresponds to previous estimate of the Ministry of Economic Development.

On July 28, 2016 the Ministry of Economic Development released the report “On Present State of the Economy of the Russian Federation Based on Results of 1H 2016”.[85] In the report the Ministry provided estimate of the Russian GDP contraction for 1H 2016 at 0.9% as compared to appropriate period of previous year (1.2% contraction in 1Q 2016 and 0.6% contraction in 2Q 2016). Referring to the report, the Russian GDP in June 2016 is estimated to contract by 0.5% as compared to June 2015 with flat growth (0.0%) as compared to May 2016 (seasonally adjusted). The GDP contraction estimate for May 2016 was corrected from 0.8% to 0.6%.

May 2016:

On June 27, 2016 the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia published the monthly monitoring report on the Russian economy.[86] Referring to the report, the Russian GDP in May 2016 is estimated to contract by 0.8% as compared to May 2015 and by 0.1% as compared to April 2016 (seasonally adjusted). The overall contraction for January-May 2016 is estimated at 1.0% as compared to appropriate period of previous year.

April 2016:

On May 31, 2016 the Ministry of Economic Development released the monthly monitoring report for January-April 2016.[87] The GDP contraction estimate for April 2016 was confirmed at 0.7% as compared to April 2015 and 0.1% as compared to March 2016 (seasonally adjusted). The GDP contraction for the whole period of January-April 2016 is estimated at 1.1% as compared to appropriate period of previous year. The GDP contraction estimate for March 2016 was corrected from 1.8% to 1.2%.

On May 24, 2016 Mr. Alexey Ulyukaev, the Russian Minister of Economic Development, announced the Ministry’s estimate of the Russian GDP contraction in April 2016 at 0.7%.[88]

March 2016, 1Q 2016

On June 15, 2016 the Russian State Statistics Service confirmed its first estimate of the Russian GDP contraction in 1Q 2016 at 1.2%.[89]

On May 16, 2016 the Russian State Statistics Service released first estimate of GDP developments for 1Q 2016 with the Russian GDP contraction for the period estimated at 1.2%.[90]

On April 29, 2016 the Ministry of Economic Development released the monitoring report for January-March 2016, where the GDP contraction for March 2016 was estimated at 1.8%, and the overall contraction for 1Q 2016 was estimated at 1.4% as compared to appropriate period of previous year.[91] The seasonally adjusted GDP development in March 2016 as compared to February 2016 is estimated at -0.1%. The GDP development for February 2016 was corrected from -0.6% to 0.0%.

February 2016:

On March 29, 2016 in the monthly monitoring report on the Russian economy for January-February 2016[92] the Ministry estimated the Russian GDP contraction in February 2016 at 0.6% as compared to February 2015 and also corrected GDP contraction estimate for January 2016 to 2.7% (previously 2.5%). The seasonally adjusted GDP development in February as compared to January is estimated at 0.0%. The overall contraction for January-February 2016 is estimated at 1.6% as compared to the same period of previous year.

January 2016:

On February 29, 2016 the Ministry of Economic Development released the monthly monitoring report for January 2016 (“On Present State of the Economy of the Russian Federation in January 2016”)[93], where it provided GDP contraction estimate for January 2016 at 2.5% as compared to January 2015. The seasonally adjusted GDP contraction is estimated at 0.1% as compared to December 2015.



Data on GDP Dynamics in 2015



Important note: on December 30, 2016 the Russian State Statistics Service revised the GDP estimate for 2015 in a major way. Specifically, In the course of the third planned GDP assessment the Russian GDP contraction rate was corrected from 3.7% to 3.0%.[94] In accordance with available information, the estimate for 3Q 2015 have been revisited due to amended results of activities of the state management and the military sector (0.8% contraction was changed to 3.4% growth). Referring to mass media, the mentioned growth is most likely related to contribution of the military sector due to commencing military conflict in Syria and participation in the conflict in Ukraine.[95] Besides this, the methodology on military spending assessment in GDP calculation has been reportedly revised.[96] The delay on proper presentation of 2015 results is most likely connected to substantial lag in provision of statistical information by the enterprises of the military sector.

On February 1, 2017 the Russian State Statistics Service provided the first estimate on the Russian GDP developments in 2016 revising further the GDP contraction for 2015 from 3.0 to 2.8%.[97]


Russian GDP Growth in 2012-2015 (the Russian State Statistics Service, after the revision made in February 2017)


Source: Russian Federal State Statistics Service.


Russian GDP Growth in 2011-2015 (IMF, before revision made in February 2017)


Source: International Monetary Fund. Data for 2015 before revision made by the Russian State Statistics Service on December 30, 2016.


GDP: Dynamics of GDP per capita, current prices, GDP per capita based on PPP (current international dollar)


Source: International Monetary Fund. Data for 2015 before revision made by the Russian State Statistics Service on December 30, 2016.


Quarterly Dynamics of the Russian GDP Physical Volume Indices in 2015, % to appropriate period of previous year


Source: Russian Federal State Statistics Service. Data for 2015 before revision made on December 30, 2016.


Monthly Russian GDP Dynamics in 2015, % to appropriate period of previous year


Source: Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation. Data for 2015 do not consider revision made by the Russian State Statistics Service on December 30, 2016.

2015 as a Whole

On February 2, 2016 the Russian State Statistics Service confirmed the Russian GDP contraction estimate for 2015 at 3.7% with GDP in current prices stated at the level of RUR 80 412.5 billion.[98] The GDP deflator was estimated at 107.3% (compared to 2014).

On January 25, 2016 the Russian State Statistics Service released preliminary estimate of the Russian GDP contraction for 2015 at 3.7%.[99]

On January 13, 2016 Mr. Ulyukaev confirmed that GDP contraction for 2015 is estimated to be in the range of 3.7-3.8%.[100]

On December 30, 2016 the Russian State Statistics Service corrected the Russian GDP contraction estimate for 2015 from 3.7% to 3.0%.[101]

December 2015:

On February 10, 2016 the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia released the annual monitoring report “On Social and Economic Development of the Russian Federation in 2015”[102], where the GDP contraction for December 2015 was estimated at 3.5% as compared to December 2014 (seasonally adjusted GDP development is estimated at 0.0%).

November 2015:

On December 28, 2015 the Ministry of Economic Development released the monthly monitoring report for November 2015 (“On Present State of the Economy of the Russian Federation in January-November 2015”)[103], where it provided GDP contraction estimate for November 2015 at -4.0% as compared to November 2014.

October 2015:

In issue of the monthly monitoring report for October 2015 released on November 26, 2015[104] the Ministry of Economic Development estimated the Russian GDP contraction for October 2015 at 3.7%.

On November 11, 2015 the Russian State Statistics Service released the monthly report on social and economic developments in Russia in January-October 2015[105] where preliminary estimate of the Russian GDP developments for January-October 2015 was stated at 96.3% as compared to January-October 2014 (i.e. 3.7% contraction).

September 2015:

On November 26, 2015 the Ministry of Economic Development released monthly monitoring report for October 2015[106] with revisited figure of GDP contraction for September 2015 at 3.7% as compared to September 2014.

On October 28, 2015 in the monthly monitoring report[107] the Ministry of Economic Development estimated GDP contraction in September 2015 at 3.8% as compared to September 2014. The cumulative GDP contraction for January-September 2015 was estimated at 3.8% as compared to appropriate period of previous year.

August 2015:

On September 29, 2015 the Ministry of Economic Development released monitoring report[108] with estimate of GDP contraction in August 2015 at 4.6% as compared to August 2014. The cumulative GDP contraction for January-August 2015 was estimated at 3.8% as compared to appropriate period of previous year.

On September 16, 2015 Mr. Alexei Ulyukaev, the Minister of Economic Development commented that cumulative GDP contraction for January-August 2015 amounted to around 3.9% as compared to the same period of 2014.[109]

July 2015: On August 28, 2015 the Ministry of Economic Development released data on GDP development in July 2015.[110] In July 2015 GDP contraction was estimated at 4.6% as compared to July 2014 and the total contraction for January-July 2015 was stated at 3.6% as compared to January-July 2014.

2Q 2015 and 1st half of 2015: In August 2015 the Russian State Statistics Service (Rosstat) published preliminary data for GDP developments in 2Q 2015. Referring to the Rosstat, GDP contraction was at 4.6% in 2Q 2015 as compared to 2Q 2014.[111] That resulted in 3.4% GDP contraction in 1st half of 2015 as compared to 1st half of 2014.[112]

June 2015: GDP contraction was estimated by the Ministry of Economic Development at 4.2% as compared to June 2014. The improvement against May 2015 is explained by lesser contraction in processing industries output, generation and distribution of electric power, gas and water and services to individuals. The lesser slump in construction and investments was also registered. The Ministry of Economic Development preliminarily estimated GDP contraction for the 1st half 2015 at 3.4% as compared to 1st half of 2014.[113]

May 2015: GDP contraction was estimated by the Ministry of Economic Development at 4.8% as compared to May 2014.[114]

April 2015: GDP contraction was estimated by the Ministry of Economic Development at 4.2% as compared to April 2014.[115]

1Q 2015: On June 15, 2015 the Russian State Statistics Service (Rosstat) published preliminary data on GDP developments in 1Q 2015. Referring to Rosstat, GDP contraction was at 2.2% in 1Q 2015 as compared to 1Q 2014 (GDP physical volume index at 97.8%).[116]

March 2015: GDP contraction was estimated by the Ministry of Economic Development at 3.2% as compared to March 2014.[117]

February 2015: GDP contraction was estimated by the Ministry of Economic Development at 1.6% as compared to February 2014.[118]

January 2015: GDP contraction was estimated by the Ministry of Economic Development at 1.8% as compared to January 2014.[119]



Data on GDP Dynamics in 2005-2014



On June 21, 2017 the dynamics of the Russian GDP and its components for 2011-2013 came through further revision to comply with SNA 2008 taking into account R&D and weapons systems.[120] The GDP growth for 2012 was revised from 3.5% to 3.7%, and 2013 figure was corrected from 1.3% to 1.8%.

On July 21, 2017, the Russian Stata Statistics Service revised data on GDP dynamics and components for 2012-2013.[121]


Russian GDP Growth / Contraction in 2012-2014


Source: Russian Federal State Statistics Service.

On December 31, 2015 the Russian State Statistics Service released new data on GDP dynamics in 2011-2014 that had been revised in accordance with combination of SNA 1993 / 2008 (2011-2013) and SNA 2008 (2014).

Important note: the major changes concerned (a) methodology of valuation of costs of housing services produced and consumed by residential space owners, (b) fixed capital consumption that is now calculated relying on current market value of assets, (c) foreign trade operations calculations complying now with 6th edition of Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual, (d) adjusted assessment of shadow salaries and mixed income based on financial account data elaborated by the Russian Central Bank and (e) inclusion of costs of work made by household servants.


Dynamics of GDP Physical Volume Indices in Russia in 2011-2014


Source: Russian Federal State Statistics Service.


Russian GDP Growth / Contraction in 2005-2014


Source: International Monetary Fund.


Dynamics of Russian GDP per Capita in 2005-2014, USD


Source: International Monetary Fund.



Data on GDP Dynamics in 1995-2004




Dynamics of Russian GDP in 1995-2004, %


Source: International Monetary Fund.


GDP: Dynamics of GDP per capita, current prices, GDP per capita based on PPP (current international dollar)


Source: International Monetary Fund.



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